Oscar Predictions.

One of the best things about the Oscars, or the worst depending on your point of view, is that you can usually accurately predict the winners in the major categories without actually having seen any of the movies. You just have to know what the Academy looks for. Take Leonardo DiCaprio this year for example. His performance in The Departed was better than in Blood Diamond, but in Blood Diamond he had an accent and that's why he got the nod. All actors have to do is play ugly, retarded, or accented and they are almost guaranteed a nomination.

Best Supporting Actress

This is one category that voters like to give to relative newcomers or people who are fairly obscure.

Adriana Barazza, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes On A Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

Who will win: Jennifer Hudson
Don't Be Surprised if: Abigail Breslin

Best Supporting Actor

Same as supporting actress they tend to give it to obscure or new performers. Or in this year's case, a performer who has been around a long time and showed new found versatility.

Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg, The Departed

Who will win: Eddie Murphy
Don't Be Surprised if: Alan Arkin
Person I'd like to see win: Djimon Hounsou. Nobody acting today can act with the raw emotional range this guy can. Not only in this movie but also in In America a few years back.

Best Actress

This will go to a popular actress who usually plays a flashy role. Like The Queen for example.

Penelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes On A Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children

Who will win: Helen Mirren
Don't Be Surprised if: Nobody. Mirren is the night's biggest lock.

Best Actor

This typically goes to veterans who play characters who are either really popular or complete tyrants. Like Idi Amin.

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed, oops I mean Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

Who will win: Forest Whitaker
Don't Be Surprised if: Peter O'Toole

Best Director

You have to pay your dues to win this one. Surely to God Scorcese has paid enough dues. And your movie has to be up for Best Picture.

Clint Eastwood, Letters From Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Paul Greengrass, United 93
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel
Martin Scorcese, The Departed

Who will win: Scorcese. This will be a lifetime achievement award as much as anything. While The Departed was the best movie I saw last year I don't think I would even place it in Scorcese's top five.
Don't Be Surprised if: Clint Eastwood. Half the guys on the Academy idolize Clint. You can't underestimate the affect of that.

Best Original Screenplay

They usually actually go to the best screenplay nominated.

Guillermo Arriaga, Babel
Iris Yamashita & Paul Haggis, Letters From Iwo Jima
Michael Arndt, Little Miss Sunshine
Guillermo Del Toro, Pan's Labyrinth
Peter Morgan, The Queen

Who will win: Guillermo Arriaga, Babel
Don't Be Surprised: Peter Morgan

Best Adapted Screenplay

Again, it usually goes to the best script nominated.

Sacha Baron Cohen and a lot of other guys, Borat
A bunch of people, Children of Men
William Monahan, The Departed
Ton Field & Tom Perrotta, Little Children
Patrick Marber, Notes On A Scandal

Who will win: William Monahan, The Departed
Don't Be Surprised if: Patrick Marber

Best Picture

There is no real rationale for this category as their have been plenty of bad choices. Dances With Wolves over Good Fellas, Forrest Gump over Pulp Fiction and The Shawshank Redemption, Braveheart over anything. And that's just the past 17 years.

Babel
The Departed
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

Who will win: Babel Too much global conflict to not win given the subject matter and global reach of the story.
Don't Be Surprised: The Departed. As I said, this was the best movie I saw last year.

Farewell to A Celtic Great.

I was very sad to hear of the passing of former NBA great Dennis Johnson at the age of 52. I think he was one of the leagues great winners and clutch players and was the point guard of the greatest starting five in the history of the league along with Danny Ainge, Larry Bird, Robert Parrish and Kevin McHale. I think ESPN's Bill Simmons, born and raised in Boston and a huge Celtics fan, is the best one to speak about him.

Simmons also helps me illustrate why Vegas is the coolest place on earth and that I won the bet of over 2.5 shootings during All Star weekend.

Diamond Joe's Daughter.

A special congratulations to Mr. and Ms. Diamond Joe Quimby on the birth of their first child over the weekend in Phoenix. Hailey came in at a healthy 8 pounds 2 ounces and mother and baby are both doing very well. We can only hope Hailey inherits her fathers hair. I have no doubt she will be a star on the LPGA tour by age 20.

Other Stuff.

- I'm glad to see Phil Mickelson playing well again. The PGA is always more interesting when the top players are at he top of their game. I hope that Charles Howell III can now move himself into that top tier of players after his win yesterday. He certainly has the talent he just needs the confidence.

- I always thought it was unfair to Christina Aguilera that she was compared to Britney Spears. Christina has an incredible voice, writes good lyrics, has a strong understanding of musical history (Etta James is one of her heroes and I am willing to bet money Britney or Jessica Simpson wouldn't know James if they heard her) and real talent. Britney, well...doesn't. Compare Christina's great show this weekend at halftime of the NBA all star game to Britney's weekend ending with her hair about to be sold on eBay.

- If the Norwalk virusis making the rounds again I am locking myself in my bedroom until it passes. I was unfortunate enough to get this the last go round and I can honestly say it was the sickest 24 hour period of my life.

NBA vs. NHL

This isn't a debate over which game is better. This is strictly to point out why the NBA is so much more successful than the NHL. Watching the NBA All-Star game festivities last night made it even more clear that the NBA knows how to market itself and the NHL really doesn't have a clue. First off, holding the game in Vegas was a brilliant idea. You get a tonne of top celebrities, a lot of hype, and a great way to entertain your top corporate sponsors. Sure the game was a dud but what did you expect with a bunch of NBA stars loose in Vegas for a weekend? It's not like these guys were going to have a lot of energy left.

Another thing I found great was the league's poster boy, LeBron James, taking the microphone before tipoff and thanking all the people and sponsors watching and attending for their support of the league. It may not have been 100% sincere but it still showed that the players remembered who pays their salaries.

Contract this to the NHL that played it's All Star game on a week night instead of the Saturday of the Super Bowl bye week, never showcases it's individual stars, and has a ridiculous schedule that doesn't allow fans to see their favorite players from the other conference more than once every three years. Imagine living in Columbus and buying your kid a Sidney Crosby jersey for Christmas. The kid opens it up and has a huge smile on his face and and all you can think to yourself is "Jeez I hope that jersey still fits in three years when Sid the Kid's back in town again". You would think Gary Bettmen would have learned something about marketing when he worked for the NBA under David Stern but apparently not.

A quick side note - I really hope the NHL and NBA move to Vegas. It would be a huge success. The casinos would buy up a lot of tickets to give to guests and it would give the league some buzz (you think the Penguins moving to KC would be more exciting). The other things is even with a crappy expansion roster a Vegas team is guaranteed to win 70% of their home games because the opposing team will be such a mess from the night before. They should schedule Sunday afternoon games just to be sure.

The Week End Wrap Up.

Things you may have missed yesterday while enrolling in the Tim Hardaway school for social tolerance:

- The Nashville Predators have landed Peter Forsberg for essentially nothing. This has got to scare everyone in the west because if he is healthy there is no better playoff performer than Forsberg. He might even get some people in Nashville to realize they have a hockey team.

- The Sports Illustrated Swimsuit edition came out this week with the lovely and curvy Beyonce on the cover. I applaud SI for putting someone on the cover who looks as though she eats three meals a day. Even one of my favorite all-time "girlfriends", Marissa Miller, has lost too much weight and doesn't look as great as she used to.

As a teenager I used to fantasize about having 4 swimsuit models at once. Now I fantasize about having 4 at once and feeding them 10 pounds of pasta. Women really need to start eating carbs again, this is getting scary.

- I find it funny that the Liberals pushed through a bill making it mandatory for the government to meet Kyoto standards when they didn't do a single thing about it while in power. And I find it depressing that the next federal election is shaping up to be centered around the environment. Surely to God there are more pressing issues in this country.

- A Quebec provincial election can only mean one thing - more federal money being sent their way.

- I love astronomy but don't know too much about it other than what I learn while watching the Discovery Channel, so I find potential water sources on Mars pretty cool.

- The Hoff in drag. And to think I used to idolize this guy during the Knight Rider days.

Global Warming Activists.

- I work in downtown Ottawa and on a lot of days this winter I have noticed environmental types with signs and what not protesting about Global Warming, Kyoto, and the like. But I noticed today that I have not seen these people now that it has become freeze the balls off a brass monkey cold in Ottawa recently. I find it more than a little ironic that Global Warming types will only carry signs on days the weather suits them. Hypocritical motherfuckers.

All Star Weekend In Vegas.

- The NBA has reached it's All Star Weekend and this year the game is being played in Las Vegas. Vegas is my favorite place on earth and Ms. Skeelo and I even got married there (at the MGM Grand, not by Elvis). But if I think of being there during NBA All Star weekend too long it may make my head explode. I am pretty sure that I would be dead within 6 hours of landing there if I were to go. It's going to be absolutely nuts there. I'm putting the over/under on NBA related shootings at 2.5 and Charles Barkley's over/under on losses in the pits at $1 million. The number of groupies will be incalculable.

- The Raptors head to the break with a 4.5 game lead in the Atlantic and the division is theirs to lose with only 29 games left and the Nets missing Richard Jefferson. Also helping the Raps is that they play in a division with teams like the 76ers and Celtics that will be tanking games on purpose to try to improve their chances in the Greg Oden/Kevin Durant lottery. The Raps should end the season with 47 wins and a winnable fist round match up.

- A lot of people were not too impressed with the Dallas Cowboys selection of Wade Phillips as their new coach. Who the hell did they think they were going to hire? Everyone knows Jerry Jones is a clown who could care less about the teams on field success. If Bill Parcells couldn't coach Terrell Owens nobody can. But at the very least Wade Phillips has a pretty hot daughter so that must count for something though I am not sure what.

- Speaking of T.O. he is moving dangerously close to Dennis Rodman territory. With his need for the spotlight I can't see him living much past 5 years once he is done in the NFL. He tops my list of current athletes "Most Likely To Be Found Dead In A $40 Hotel Room With A Pound of Coke And 2 Transsexuals Within 5 Years".

- I'm willing to bet money that Alex Rodriguez will win the AL MVP this year. I think he is looking to get out of New York and with his ability to opt out of his contract at the end of this year and get back on the free agent market he is going to have monster year and win MVP. With the money being thrown around this winter he can get a 7 or 8 year deal worth 19-20 million per with Scott Boras as his agent. And he is still the best shortstop in baseball despite the fact that the Yanks don't play him there. Any takers on that bet?

Monday Musings

- I don't watch the Grammys so I have no opinion on them last night.

- I'm very glad John Amaechi has decided to come out of the closet but this is an absolute non-story. If former athletes who come out really want to help the gay community they should have the courage to come out while they are still playing. And I actually think Mark Cuban is right when he says the first team sport athlete to come out will make a fortune because of it.

- This was a good weekend for the Raptors despite losing to the Pistons Saturday night. The game against the Lakers Friday night showed they have come a long way in a short period of time and at the same time showed how far they have to go. The pissed away a double digit lead in the fourth quarter but held on to win. Two months ago they would have lost that game. But they need to learn to finish teams off. They should have won that game by 15 going away. Because they can't finish temas off at home you knew damn well they were going to lose a close game on the road to the Pistons. While the Rapas are showing great improvement they are still a year away from serious contention.

- Having watched the Lakers twice this weekend and about 15 other times this year I am convinced they are going to be terrifying to play in the playoffs. Andrew Bynum is improving by leaps and bounds and Lamar Odom is great now that he is healthy. The Suns better pray that they don't meet the Lakers in the playoffs because I seriously think the Lakers would pull off the upset. The Suns running game would play perfectly into Kobe's hands as a few easy layups would get him in the flow and he would start knocking down jumpers from all over the court. And the Suns don't have anyone who can wear him down on the defensive end.

- If there is going to be a sequel to Borat, whoever gets embarrassed this time will have no right to claim any wrong doing because they are clearly living under a rock.

Entertainment Notes.

- A small piece of my high school history died when Anna Nicole Smith passed away yesterday. One of her Guess jeans ads was the first picture to grace the door of my high school locker. She became downright loony in past years but don't forget that 12-15 years ago, back when women were still eating carbs, she was widely considered to have one of the best bodies in the world.

- It's good to see that some judges still believe in conducting your matters with some respect for others.

- I'm disappointed that Keppler was killed off on CSI last night. I know it was a logical end to his four episode arc but I really liked the character.

- Should I be worried that I really like Justin Timberlake's new album? Does it mean he is progressing as a musician or that I am regressing as a listener?

Super Bowl Highlights.

Random notes on yesterday's big game:

- Congrats to the Colts for getting the Super Bowl monkey off their back by beating a distrubingly horseshit Chicago team yesterday. Nobody picked the Bears to win this thing and then the Bears went out and proved why. I've never seen a more lopsided 12 point game.

- Peyton Manning is now officially the best QB in football. The Super Bowl was the one thing missing to call him the best. I don't think he should have won MVP though, I would have given it to Joseph Addai.

- Tony Dungy is a class act all the way. He really deserved to win this after all he has been through in the last year and with the grace he and Lovie Smith showed all week answering the same inane questions over and over again.

- So much for the Bears vaunted D. They looked like a joke yesterday and the Colts could have easily hung 45 on them if they really thought they had to. Is there a more overrated defender than Brian Urlacher?

- The Colts knew they didn't have to hang 45 on the Bears because they knew how positively awful Rex Grossman is. Watching him fumble the ball repeatedly and throw those two god awful interceptions was absolutely the best part of the game for me. Somebody should compile a montage of all of Rex's mishaps, set it to Laurel & Hardy music and stick it on youtube.

- The second best highlight was watching QB's like Dan Marino and Steve Young trying to hide their disgust with just how bad Grossman played. It was as if they wanted to say "I can't believe this friggin stiff digraced my position like that". Priceless.

- I find it ironic that some Bears fans are bitching about the weather affecting the game. The bad weather should have favored the Bears. And the Bears beat the Saints two weeks before due to bad weather.

- There is no way Rex Grossman can start for the Bears next year. If I was a Bears fan I'd be starting the "Sign Jeff Garcia" campaign this morning.

Super Bowl Prediction.

I was 1-1 in the Conference championship games because I figured the Saints would be smart enough to run Deuce McAllister all day. I was wrong and they lost to the Bears. So I'm 7-3 in the playoffs and positive of the winning team of the big game.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears

The early line on this game was Colts by 7 and it hasn't moved much. Take the Colts. Everybody knew going into the plyoffs the best four teams in the playoffs were in the AFC and I'm surprised the spread didn't open at 10. The only chance the Bears have is by running for 200 yards and keeping the Colts offense off the field. I think a lot of the pressure is off Peyton Manning and the Colts offense now that they have beaten the Patriots. I expect them to play very loose and score early and often. Which will put the ball in the hands of Bears QB Rex Grossman and that is very bad news. He is gong to throw at least 2 picks in this one.

With two weeks to prepare Manning is going to have a very big game. I also expect the Colts to use TE Dallas Clark a lot to make sure Bears LB Brian Urlacher has to cover him. That opens things up for Colts WR's Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison. I actually expect Wayne to score 2 or 3 touchdowns and be the MVP. One aspect of the Colts offense people seem to overlook is that they are actually a power running team at the end of games. Their "quick" offense has been wearing down defenses and their RB combo of Joseph Addai and Domenic Rhodes have been finishing things off (it was very telling that the Colts winning touchdown against the Pats was an Addai run). That's what they'll do this Sunday.

Prediction: Colts 38, Bears 17.