The Cards Must Have Hear Me.

The Cardinals just picked up Matt Holliday from the A's. I think getting out of purgatory in Oakland and back to the NL should be a huge motivator for him. And now the Cards finally have a real in his prime 30+ home run threat to surround Pujols with. Albert's numbers can only get better now, if that's possible.

Albert Pujols. Ain't Nothin' Like Him.

I figured Albert Pujols deserved his own post because I need to go into detail into exactly what we are fortunate enough to be watching as his career plays out.

Sports Illustrated had an interesting article this week, co-written by Bill James, about the historical statistical comparison of Pujols with other all-timers. I am firmly against a lot of the stat head shit that has overtaken baseball in the last decade and absolutely loathe Moneyball (how many World Series have the A's been to in the past 15 years exactly? Zero is the answer. And the no count Marlins have won two in that time for comparison purposes) but player stats like batting average, runs scored, RBI's and HR's are timeless.

Up until the end of last year the best hitter I had ever seen (I was born in '75) was Manny Ramirez. He was a threat to win the Triple Crown every year in his '98-'05 prime (which he is past now but still rakes as well as anyone. Well, except Pujols) and I shudder to think what numbers he could have put up if he wasn't such a goddamn wingnut and had been able to concentrate 162 games a year. The thing about Manny was how he almost always got the barrel of the bat on the ball and how smart a hitter he was. He is still the only hitter I have ever seen who would work a pitcher. He would intentionally put a bad swing on a pitch in the early innings to make a pitcher think he could get one by him again later in the game. In the 7th or 8th inning the guy would throw the pitch again and Manny would hit a 3 run Homer. Manny is a lot of things but one of those things is one of the 6 or 7 best right handed hitters of all-time.

But Pujols is better. I really think he is going to win the Triple Crown this year and if he doesn't this year he will be a threat to win it every year and will win it eventually. He is only 29 and has about 5 years of prime left (baseball players primes are develop later in age than other sports and is usually from about 28-34). Even after his prime finishes he will have 5 or 6 more years, if he wants to play that long, that he can put up .315/32/110. He is going to finish with career stats that are pretty much unequaled throughout baseball history. The consistency of his first nine seasons is mind boggling and he is only getting better.

The most amazing thing to consider about his success is that he has never had another power hitter in the lineup protecting him the way Manny had with Albert Belle and Jim Thome in Cleveland and David Ortiz in Boston. Pujols walks over 90 times a year (and expect that to jump to about 120 a year for the next several) and still puts up big numbers, which makes his numbers more impressive because he makes the most of the pitches he does see.

There are two things that make this guy the best I have seen that other potential "best I have seen guys" don't have. They all share traits such as a great eye and the ability to keep their hands back even when they are fooled on a pitch and their bodies go forward. But the two things that Pujols does are a) almost never pulls off the ball resulting in hitting with power to all fields consistently and b) his bat is level no matter where the pitch is. I've never seen anyone do that. If the ball is at his knees he drops his hands to level at the knees, if it is up he keeps his hands up and level. That's why so many of his home runs look like line drives that just keep going. It's uncanny.

Manny never pulled off the ball either but his hands were often reaching for the ball and he could get away with it with brute strength. ARod pulls off the ball a lot when he is slumping. Ryan Howard goes to all fields but will never hit for the average Pujols will and strikes out too much. Those are the only three guys who have the all field power Pujols has (Bonds had all field power too. McGwire had virtually none) but none will hit for the average he will.

All you can do his admire Pujols and hope the hell the Cardinals get another 35 Home Run guy to put behind him in the lineup. Then his numbers will get even scarier.

Enjoy the show because we may never see another one like him in our lifetime. And let's just hope he faces Brad Lidge on a regular basis for the rest of his career (play it with the mute on). I still think Lidge should take out a restraining order against him.

Baseball Observations

As we approach the 100 game mark I wanted to take a look back at what I thought and predicted at the start of the year versus how I think things will play out the rest of the year.

As for AL Predictions I am not too bad. The Red Sox are 2 back of the Yanks and I am not at all worried that they won't win the division. Nor am I worried that Tampa won't win the Wild Card. The Red Sox were due for a bad stretch and this was it. Having DiceK on the shelf certainly doesn't help but their starting pitching is still the best in the division and they have the best bullpen by far. The Yanks pitching is eventually going to kill them (quick note: has it occurred to anyone that the reason the new Yankee Stadium is seeing so many home runs is because the Yanks pitching is not great and their lineup is stacked with guys who hit bombs?) but they will still continue to hit. As for Tampa they scare the hell out of me as a Red Sox fan. Now that Kazmir has settled down and Price is back up they could go on a 21-4 run just about anytime. Though me predicting Pat Burrell would hit 40 dingers is looking pretty stupid.

Despite the fact Detroit is leading the Central I still think the Twins can win it though I won't be surprised if Detroit hangs on. They are finally close to what they were when they made their World Series run a few years ago. And I am sticking with my Justin Morneau MVP pick.

As for the West the Angels are about to run away with it so that pick was safe.

In the NL I am surprised how good the Dodgers have been, especially without Manny in the lineup for 2 months. Their pitching has been fantastic and see no reason for that to change. Don't get me started on how bad my Wild Card pick D'Backs are. I honestly can't believe how bad they are. I thought the real team was the one that made the run to the playoffs two years ago, not the one that stunk last year. Apparently not.

In the East the Phillies are just going to run away and hide. They are clearly the best team in that division and have nothing to worry about in the Mets or Braves.

I may have rocks in my head but I still think the Cubs are going to win the Central. As terrible as they have been they are still only one game out in what is clearly the most pathetic division in baseball. The Cubs are bound to get hot at some point, they are too talented not to rip through that division. But I do think the Cardinals will end up with the Wild Card. Albert Pujols was pretty obvious choice for MVP and there is no way he won't win it (another post on him is coming very soon).

So how does this all shape up for October. I am sticking with the Red Sox to win again after beating the Rays int he ALCS, but I think they are going to beat the Phillies in the Series. For some reason I just see the Dodgers lineup going south against the Phils again in the NLCS.

Doc.

With his dominating complete game win over the Red Sox yesterday Roy Halladay proved why the Jays should not trade him.

The whole idea of trading him is predicated on one big thing - That the incompetent JP Ricciardi can get enough value in return for him. Trust me on this, there is no way in hell JP is going to get a Bartolo Colon for Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips package out of this. But why would you trade him anyway? He is the best pitcher in baseball and he is still only 32. You will never replace him in the rotation. He is the most valuable asset in the baseball - a proven innings eater and winner who never has arm problems. He's a much better version of Curt Schilling minus the obnoxious ego.

Forget trading him, the Jays should be signing him to a 4 year extension past this year. He is the main reason to show up to see this team and he is their best marketing piece and only real draw when on the road. And his team is really not that far off. They have a potential 16-18 game winner/No. 2 starter in Ricky Romero, some decent arms in the pen and rising stars in Aaron Hill and Adam Lind. If Travis Snider comes up as he should the next couple of years you have a pretty good lineup with Doc still in his prime.

If the Jays do trade him they are officially a joke and all the Jays fans living south of the border will officially stop following them and gong out of their way to attend road games. And I wouldn't expect season tickets sales at Rogers Center to improve any either. Only 4 teams haven't made the playoffs since the wild card was introduced - the Nationals, Pirates, Royals and Jays. The Jays are not in the same lowly class as those other three but losing Doc would start the decline to being a laughingstock like them.

So what are the chances he does get traded? I say about 5%. The only teams I can see him going to are Philly and Anaheim because they are the only teams with enough prospects and money to afford him. Other than the Red Sox but even JP isn't stupid enough to trade him in the division.

If he does go I hope for his sake he goes to the Phillies. In the pathetic NL he could win 26 games next year.

Dribs and Drabs

I will be back over the next couple of days with thoughts on NBA signings, trades and who got better and who got worse (Celtics and Spurs are the former and Magic are the latter. The Cavs are neither), as well as a look at MLB at the All-Star break. And no the Jays shouldn't trade Roy Halladay.

British Open Pick.

Ms. Skeelo and I are actually heading to the UK in a couple of weeks and it would have been amazing to be there during the Open. Alas our schedules did not allow it.

I'm not buying that Tiger is the favorite at this thing. He always gets plugged in as the favorite because he is the number 1 player but it is never a lock the way, say Roger Federer is in tennis or a dominant college basketball number 1 is. I would actually argue Paddy Harrington is the guy to beat. Anyone who has won 2 Claret Jugs in a row knows how to get around a links course and can get a third. As much as I would like to see Paddy get it again I don't think he will.

Once again I am going to go with Sergio Garcia. He just hits the ball to well to not win one of these things eventually. And his less than great putting stroke does not come into effect too much at the Open because the greens are usually so much slower than in the US. He has been playing reasonably well of late and always gets up for this event. I say he wins his first major this week.