Stanley Cup Finals Preview

Detroit Red Wings vs. Pittsburgh Penguins

I said last year that the Pens-Wings Finals reminded me a lot of the Isles-Oilers final in '84. You had the veteran Isles team winning their 4th straight Cup by beating a young, hungry Edmonton team with Gretzky and Messier ready to break out and carry the league. The next year the two teams met again and the Oilers won their first Cup. I said after last year that I thought Pittsburgh would repeat that performance and beat the Wings this year to win the Cup.

At the start of this year though I thought the Wings picking up Marion Hossa kept them slightly ahead of the Penguins. However, I don't think that now. The Wings are as good as they were last year but not better. They may even be a bit less than they were last year because Lidstrom and Datsyuk are not at 100% health. The big difference in this series this year is that the Pens are a lot better. Crosby was playing on a bad ankle in last year's Final but is full healthy right now, Bill Guerin is an improvement over Hossa because he goes to the net harder and can score bigger goals than Hossa did, Fluery is a much better goalie this year, and Jordan Staal is much improved. But the biggest difference is that Malkin has become every bit as dominant as Crosby this year. Sid and Malkin are the two best players in the league (sorry Mr. Ovechkin but you need to learn to back-check) and the Wings will have no answer for them.

Pens in 6.

Doc Needs To Start Tonight

If I was Cito Gaston I would pitch Roy Halladay on three days rest tonight. This isn't only a series in May, it is a huge series for the jays morale and they can't get swept. Throwing Doc tonight would show that the Jays are serious about winning the division.

The Red Sox are about to go 8-0 against the Jay and Yanks this year if they win tonight and the Jays have given them now reason yet to fear them as I said earlier this week. The Jays don't have a hope in hell of winning the division if Vernon Wells and Alex Rios don't start hitting and unless they trade for another front of the rotation starter because there rotation won't hold up. But winning with Doc tonight would show the Sox that they can't expect to beat the Jays when they have their best on the mound.

On another note David Ortiz looks about done. I have watched 6 or 7 Sox games this year and he does not look recovered from wrist surgery in the off season. Actually he probably has but he just can't hit the high heater anymore. He used to feast on inside fastballs and he just can't get around on them anymore. It's going to be a long year for him and I'm just glad Jason Bay can help carry some of the load caused by Ortiz's drop-off.

NBA Conference Finals

3-1 in the 2nd round leaves me at 8-4 so far. All year long I thought the Lakers would beat the Cavs in the Finals. But with the Cavs rolling through the East they are going to be well rested. Whoever they play in the Finals will not be. Stay tuned.

Western Conference

1. LA Lakers vs 2. Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets have been the best team in the playoffs so far. I know the Cavs haven't lost but they beat on the Pistons and Hawks while the Nuggets beat two very good teams in the Hornets and Mavs. What has most impressed and surprised people in the defense the Nuggets have been playing. Kenyon Martin is back to his old intimating self, Nene is rebounding, scoring and knocking people all over the place and Chris Anderson is a great weak side shot blocker with a tonne of energy. Their high scoring offense is not a big shock because Chanucey Billups is not a shoot first guy so Carmelo Anthony can look for his own shot whenever he needs. And I agree with Charles Barkley that Melo is the most explosive scorer in the league. I wouldn't be at all shocked if they win this series despite the Lakers sweeping them last year and beating the 3 of 4 in the regular season.

So what of the Lakers? They have an awful habit of playing to the level of their competition so I actually think they will play a lot better against the Nuggets than they did against the Rockets because they know how good Denver is. The Lakers are mentally lazy, arrogant and think they can just turn it on whenever they need to. Their problem is that they are right. In the three must win games against the Rockets they won games 2, 5 and 7 easily. This team must drive Phil Jackson completely crazy.

Kobe is going to be Kobe and Billups and Melo are going to be great as well. This series comes down to Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum. Martin, Nene and Anderson will show up every night and bust their ass. But those three are not as good as Gasol, Odom and Bynum when those three show up. If they play as badly as they did in the Finals last year this series is done in 6 and the Nuggets move on. For some reason I am giving them the benefit of the doubt and thinking they will show up at least 4 times. Which means Lakers move on.

Lakers in 7

Eastern Conference

1. Cleveland Cavliers vs 3. Orlando Magic

Saying the Nuggets have been the most impressive team in the playoffs is to tkae nothing away from the Cavs. And it is pretty damn obvious that LeBron James has been the best player in the playoffs. The guy is playing like he is possessed. There is really no stopping him right now so the best way to beat the Cavs is to hope guys like David West and Mo Williams have off nights.

The Magic were able to beat the Celtics because they they are able to get hot from behind the three point line for long stretches. They really are the rarest of NBA teams in that they are an effective outside-in team. And part of the reason for that is Dwight Howard's limited offensive game. As much as I love Howard I thought it was ridiculous that people were calling for the offense to go through im against the Celts. They can't for two reasons: 1. He is a below average passer and 2. He has no moves when he is more than 6 feet from the basket. He scores all his points on dunks, putbacks and from the line (though he is a poor free throw shooter he gets there a lot). That's not to take anything away from him because he is unstoppable near the basket, but because he is such a good offensive rebounder is why the Magic can rely on the three so much with guys like Hedo Turkoglu and Rashad Lewis. I also think that's the reasn Orlando will win Game 3 at home.

The problem for the Magic in this series is that the Cavs are the best perimeter defense team in the league and LeBron can lock down either Hedo or Lewis and Mo Williams and lock down the other. Bid Z and Joe Smith will do a decent job against Howard and I saw enough of Rafer Alston in a Raptors jersey to know he ain't helpin' a team get to the Finals. The Cavs have been a given in the Finals since Christmas and there is no reason to think the Magic can stop them.

Cavs in 5.

NHL Conference Finals

Detroit over Chicago in 6
Pittsburgh over Carolina in 5

Are The Jays Going To Hang Around?

With the Jays off to a 23-14 start and a 1 game lead in the AL East enough time in the season has past to ask if they are for real and if they can hang on?

The answer to the first question is Yes and the second is No. A biggest reason they are off to such a hot start is because they have only played 6 divisional games and have not had to play the Red Sox and Rays yet. What they have done is exactly what they need to do though and that is beat up on the AL Central and West. I think they are going to get their asses kicked all year by Boston and Tampa and I think they are about as good as the Yankees. The Yanks pitching stinks but with ARod back they will score runs, especially against the bottom of the Jays rotation, which I don't think is going to hold up.

The Jays also need to start getting a lot more from Vernon Wells and Alex Rios, a pair that are very quickly becoming vastly overrated. Aaron Hill, Scott Rolen and Adam Lind are all very good hitters but you can't expect the three of them to hit over .320 all year.

So what happens with the Jays? Well if they were in any other divison in baseball I would say they have a shot to win the division or make a real run at the Wild Card. But unfortunately they are in the toughtest division in baseball. I expect them to lose a lot of divisional games and end up around .500 with a shot of winning maybe 87 games at most. And I expect the Red Sox to run away with the division.

NBA Round 2.

After going 5-3 in the 1st round I am confident of going 4-0 in the second.

East

1. Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 4. Atlanta Hawks

It would be easy to get suckered into thinking the Hawks have a chance in this series. They took the Celtics to Game 7 last year (which actually looks less impressive given that the Bulls pushed the Celts to 7 this year) and are a year mor experienced. Mike Bibby is playing really well as is Joe Johnson. The Haks are athletic, can score and can block shots. And they are still going to get destroyed in this series.

Watching the Cavs take apart the Pistons was a thing of beauty. They were just ruthless. Usually in a sweep there are parts of games where you think the veteran team getting swept might actually min a game. Not that series. LeBron is focused and the supporting cast, especially Mo Williams are playing great. I see another sweep here.

Cavs in 4

2. Boston Celtics vs. 3 Orlando Magic

I have no idea how to handicap this one. Kevin Garnett and Leon Powe are out for the Celtics so Dwight Howard should go nuts for the Magic but I can see Big Baby David and Kendrick Perkins playing him pretty well. The Magic can hit outisde shots but the Celtics have good perimeter D with Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo. There a couple of other big questions for each team. For the Celtics can Ray Allen keep playing well and hitting all the big shots? I say yes. And what of Pierce? He looks shot right now and doesn't have his legs. I think he may have a lot of trouble in this series against Rashad Lewis and the other quick Magic guys. He just looks tires after playing so much the past two years and carrying the team with Garnett out. For the Magic will Rafer Alston be useful in this series or will Rajon Rondo eat him alive? And will the Magic keep hitting threes because if they don't they lose.

I think the Magic will hit enough 3's to stay in the series but I think eventually Rajon Rondo continuing his coming out party will get the Celtics to the Conference Finals.

Celtics in 7.

West

1. LA Lakers vs. 5. Houston Rockets

I figured the winner of the Rockets-Trail Blazers series was best equipped to give the Lakers some trouble in the west. The main reason the Rockets may make this interesting is because they have two guys, Ron Artest and Shane Battier, who can make Kobe work really hard night in, night out. He is going to score but he may get worn down. What the Rockets also have going for them is that the Lakers don't have anyone who can match up with Yao.

But ont he other hand the Rockets can't stop Pau Gasol or Lamar Odom. The Lakers are going to score over 100 a game and I just don't see the Rockets being able to match that at all. As much as they may match up on paper this one is done quick.

Lakers in 5

2. Denver Nuggets vs. 6. Dallas Mavericks

Watching the Nuggets dismantle the Hornets has me convinced they can give the Lakers a series. The main reason is the impact Chauncey Billups has had on Carmelo Anthony. Carmelo is finally playing like the well rounded player he always could be. He also doesn't have to worry about whether he is going to get the ball at the end of the game.

The most impressive thing about the Nuggets though is their interior defense. With Nene, Kenyon Martin and Chris Anderson they have three long athletic big guys who can jump out of the gym, block shots and score a lot of put back points. They are scary as hell to play against and willl keep Dirk Nowitzki in check. And without Nowitzki lighting it up the Mavs have no chance in this series.

Nuggets in 5.