NBA Conference Finals

3-1 in the 2nd round leaves me at 8-4 so far. All year long I thought the Lakers would beat the Cavs in the Finals. But with the Cavs rolling through the East they are going to be well rested. Whoever they play in the Finals will not be. Stay tuned.

Western Conference

1. LA Lakers vs 2. Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets have been the best team in the playoffs so far. I know the Cavs haven't lost but they beat on the Pistons and Hawks while the Nuggets beat two very good teams in the Hornets and Mavs. What has most impressed and surprised people in the defense the Nuggets have been playing. Kenyon Martin is back to his old intimating self, Nene is rebounding, scoring and knocking people all over the place and Chris Anderson is a great weak side shot blocker with a tonne of energy. Their high scoring offense is not a big shock because Chanucey Billups is not a shoot first guy so Carmelo Anthony can look for his own shot whenever he needs. And I agree with Charles Barkley that Melo is the most explosive scorer in the league. I wouldn't be at all shocked if they win this series despite the Lakers sweeping them last year and beating the 3 of 4 in the regular season.

So what of the Lakers? They have an awful habit of playing to the level of their competition so I actually think they will play a lot better against the Nuggets than they did against the Rockets because they know how good Denver is. The Lakers are mentally lazy, arrogant and think they can just turn it on whenever they need to. Their problem is that they are right. In the three must win games against the Rockets they won games 2, 5 and 7 easily. This team must drive Phil Jackson completely crazy.

Kobe is going to be Kobe and Billups and Melo are going to be great as well. This series comes down to Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum. Martin, Nene and Anderson will show up every night and bust their ass. But those three are not as good as Gasol, Odom and Bynum when those three show up. If they play as badly as they did in the Finals last year this series is done in 6 and the Nuggets move on. For some reason I am giving them the benefit of the doubt and thinking they will show up at least 4 times. Which means Lakers move on.

Lakers in 7

Eastern Conference

1. Cleveland Cavliers vs 3. Orlando Magic

Saying the Nuggets have been the most impressive team in the playoffs is to tkae nothing away from the Cavs. And it is pretty damn obvious that LeBron James has been the best player in the playoffs. The guy is playing like he is possessed. There is really no stopping him right now so the best way to beat the Cavs is to hope guys like David West and Mo Williams have off nights.

The Magic were able to beat the Celtics because they they are able to get hot from behind the three point line for long stretches. They really are the rarest of NBA teams in that they are an effective outside-in team. And part of the reason for that is Dwight Howard's limited offensive game. As much as I love Howard I thought it was ridiculous that people were calling for the offense to go through im against the Celts. They can't for two reasons: 1. He is a below average passer and 2. He has no moves when he is more than 6 feet from the basket. He scores all his points on dunks, putbacks and from the line (though he is a poor free throw shooter he gets there a lot). That's not to take anything away from him because he is unstoppable near the basket, but because he is such a good offensive rebounder is why the Magic can rely on the three so much with guys like Hedo Turkoglu and Rashad Lewis. I also think that's the reasn Orlando will win Game 3 at home.

The problem for the Magic in this series is that the Cavs are the best perimeter defense team in the league and LeBron can lock down either Hedo or Lewis and Mo Williams and lock down the other. Bid Z and Joe Smith will do a decent job against Howard and I saw enough of Rafer Alston in a Raptors jersey to know he ain't helpin' a team get to the Finals. The Cavs have been a given in the Finals since Christmas and there is no reason to think the Magic can stop them.

Cavs in 5.