NBA Playoff Preview

The Finals match-up this year is absolutely going to be Cleveland vs. the Lakers and everyone knows it. And it was going to be that way even before the Celtics announced Kevin Garnett may be out of the playoffs entirely so don't make any excuses Celtics fans, you were not going to beat LeBron this year, or any year in the next 10 for that matter.

Knowing the Finals pairing before the playoffs start might make it seem kind of boring but I still think there are some great matchups in the first round.

East

1. Cleveland (66-16) vs. 8. Detroit (39-43)

The thought most of January and February was that the Pistons were not going to be your ordinary 7 or 8 seed because of their experience (6 straight Eastern Conference finals) amnd their tougness. And I believed that until watching them a couple times in late March. They are terrible this year and the AI trade, though completely worth the shot, failed miserably. There is no way in hell they stop LeBron, Mo Williams, Sasha Pavlovic etc even with a hurt Ben Wallace. I give the Pistons one game at home because they do have the experience they do.

Cavs in 5

2. Boston (62-20) vs. 7. Chicago (41-41)

As I said above the Celtics were not going to beat the Cavs with a healthy Garnett anyway but his loss hardly cripples them. For the life of me I can't figure out why anybody thinks the Bulls have a hope in hell of winning this series. I'll be shocked if they win two games. Other than Derrick Rose who do they have? Ben Gordon and John Salmons are just two guys who have to get their shots and they usually take bad ones in key moments. They have no inside presence to match up with Boston's bigs (who are very underrated) and have nobody who can stop Ray Allen or Paul Pierce. Pierce proved to me last year he is a great leader and has a killer instinct and has had his best year this year. No way in hell he loses to the Bulls.

Celtics in 5

3. Orlando (59-23) vs. Philadelphia (41-41)

This is another ugly first round match-up. The Sixers don't have anybody up front who can score and therefor get Dwight Howard in foul trouble, which is the key to beating Orlando. I don't think Andre Miller can outplay Rafer Alston and I don't see the 76ers having anyone who can stop Hedo Turkoglu or Rashard Lewis. This one is over quick.

Magic in 4

4. Atlanta (47-35) vs. Miami (43-39)

Now this is a series. There is a hell of a lot to like on this Hawks team. Joe Johnson started to show some leadership this year along with his scoring. Mike Bibby is an experienced playoff guy. Josh Smith is really tough to defend because he is so long and athletic and their close call game 7 loss to the Celtics in round 1last year was worth a lot of experience. Unfortunately they are going up against Dwayne Wade and the Heat. Very quietly rookies Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers have come on strong to end they year giving Wade someone else who can score. Udonis Haslem is a mean son of a bitch who will match up pretty well with Al Horford (who is a mean son of a bitch in his own right) and Jermaine O'Neal, though clearly not the guy he used to be can at least still block a couple of shots, throw in putbacks and contribute 6 hard fouls a game.

I see this one going the distance and that is trouble for the Hawks. With Wade healthy I see him going to the foul line about 22 times in a Game 7 (the refs love this guy as much as Kobe and LeBron). And after his Finals MVP performance in '06 I just can't bet against Wade in a Game 7.

Heat in 7

West

1. Los Angeles Lakers (as if you thought it might be the Clips) (65-17) vs. 8. Utah (48-34)

Utah can't win on the road (15-26) and the Lakers only lost 5 times at home. Given the Lakers have home court I would say that pretty much means the Jazz are fucked to start with. But the problems go deeper than that. The Lakers are the most complete team in the league with Pau Gasol really growing this year. I thought he was one of those guys who put up great numbers on bad teams buy he proved me wrong this year. And Kobe is still the best player in the league (more on that later).

I think Jazz PG Deron Williams can go off in this series because Derek Fisher and Jordan Farmar are outclassed by him but other than that they are in trouble, especially how badly they finished the year. Carlos Boozer looks like he is just waiting to start putting in the sun tan lotion in south beach next year when he joins the Heat and I have never been a Mehmet Okur fan. This one is over quick.

Lakers in 4

2. Denver (54-28) vs. 7. New Orleans (49-33)

This series fascinates me. Chauncey Billups should finish 4 or 5 in the MVP voting this year for pushing the Nugggets to the 2 seed. This team really was a dysfunctional mess before he showed up. What I am anxious to see is whether they implode when their leader Billups has a hard time with Chris Paul. The Hornets problem though is that they are pretty weak up front and don't match up too well with Nene, Kenyon Martin and Chris Anderson. This will be a high scoring series and I'm not sure that helps the Nuggets. It's reallt time for Carmelo Anthony to step up and show he can be The Man when needed and provide the scoring that will match Paul and David West. I will give him the benefit of the doubt that he will. I will also give Chauncey the benefit of the doubt that he can continue his awesome regular season play going.

Nuggets in 7

3. San Antonio (54-28) vs. 6. Dallas (54-28)

Even with Manu Ginobili out the Spurs have enough to get by the Mavs. The Mavs to me are still a mess and don't come close to equalling the sum of thier parts. Part of the reason for that of course is that one of their main parts is an over the hill point guard who they never should have traded for in the first place (my Feb 28/08 post was pretty clear on the subject). There is no way in hell Jason Kidd can stop Tony Parker, who despite a Finals MVP on his CV in still criminally underrated. Tim Duncan has not been his usual self the past few months but he is still better than anyone else in the league at the four spot and certainly more than the Mavs can handle. Ginobili may be gone but I think Roger Mason is capable of stepping up and scoring 16-18 a night in the playoffs.

Spurs in 5

4. Portland (54-28) vs. Houston (53-29)

Best first round series and the toughest to call. Common thought in the NBA is experience is essential in the playoffs. This same thought lead people to believe the Mavs would beat the Hornets last year. Portland has three 24 year olds (Brandon Roy, Rudy Fernandez and Travis Outlaw), a 23 year old (LeMarcus Aldridge), a 22 year old (Sergio Rodriguez), a 21 year old (Greg Oden) and a 20 year old (Nicolas Batum) in their top nine scorers. And you now what? I don't care. I will take talent over experience any day and besides, does Roy play like a 24 year old. Hell no. He is the second scariest guy in the West (behind Kobe) in the last minute of a tie game and Aldridge and Fernandez are athletic freaks who are damn hard to stop. Oden is still developing but he can grab some rebounds and commit fouls all night on Yao and allow Joel Pryzbilla to score some garbage points and grab big rebounds.

So why do I think this is a series? Because the Rockets are tougher than a junk yard pit bull and Ron Artest and Shane Battier are first rate defenders. Yao is also a lot tougher than people realize and Rick Adelman is a hell of a coach, definitely among the top 5 in the league. Aaron Brooks has really blossomed this year and they can hit outside shots. I honestly think the winner of this series is the only one who can knock the Lakers off in the West. I give the Game 7 home court advantage to Portland.

Portland in 7

The Lakers are going to beat the Cavs in 6 in the Finals. The Cavs only lost once at home this year in a meaningful game (they were 39-2 but I don't count that regular season final loss to the 76ers because they basically put a D league team on the floor to rest starters) but that loss was to the Lakers. I also think the 2-3-2 helps the Lakers.

The biggest reason I think the Lakers will win is because Kobe is still better than LeBron. I say that for two reasons. One is maturity. Don't get me wrong, LeBron is mature and has become a great leader (as Bill Simmons pointed out in his MVP column on ESPN.com this week Cleveland is having more fun than any team in the league and LeBron is the biggest reason why) but while they were whipping the Celtics last week the Cavs bench was dancing and laughing during the Final minutes and rubbing it in the Celtics face. Kobe would NEVER have allowed that to happen. No way can you show up your biggest rival like that a week before the playoffs start. In fact that display is the main reason I give the Celtics a punchers chance against the Cavs in the east Final. The other reason I say Kobe is better is killer instinct. When the Lakers beat Cleveland in Cleveland on Christmas Day it was a clinched when Kobe hit a fade away, high arcing jump shot over LeBron in the final minute. In other words Kobe's "sorry LeBron, this may be your house but this is still my league and I will beat you whenever I need to" killer instinct kicked in. It will take a Finals loss to Kobe for LeBron to develop that himself. Then watch out next year because this is the last time LeBron is losing in the Finals for a while.