MLB Preview

This is a little late but barely 1/16 of the season has been played so it is still legit.

AL East

1. Boston Red Sox (98-64)

For all the talk of the money the Yanks spent on pitching the Sox still have the best rotation in the American League. They have three legitimate number 1 starters in Josh Beckett (who will bounce back from an off year last year) DiceK, and Jon Lester. Throw in always reliable innings eater Time Wakefield and the additions of Brad Penny and John Smoltz (when he comes off the DL) and you have a rotation nobody can match. And Jonathan Papelbon in the closer role is as automatic as it gets.

But what will put the Sox over the top this year is a fully healthy David Ortiz and a full year of Jason Bay. Manny put up numbers last year but was such a distraction for this team that I think it cost them about 5 games and home field in the playoffs.

2. Tampa Bay Rays (96-66)

Last year was no fluke. This team is stil loaded and I love the way they play. There whole game plan is based on spedd, defense and pitchers who throw strikes. And this year they will score more runs as Evan Longoria is a year older and the addition of Pat Burrelly who may hit 40 home runs playing in that banbox of a home field.

What the Rays have is the best defense in baseball. Gabe Gross is a pretty good rightfielder but he could just stand on the right field line and let BJ Upton and Carl Crawford chase everything down they are so fast. They have an all-star catcher in Dioner Navarro and great middle infielders in Jason Bartlett and Akinori Iwamura. They help a rotation that should see Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza turn into 17 game winners and will be helped mid season by the addition of Cy Young winner in waiting David Price. They have no true closer but that doesn't matter. They are smart enough to go with the hot hand out of the 'pen.

3. New York Yankees (87-75)

I loved the CC Sabathia signing. Sure they overpaid for him but they can afford to so get over it. He should win close to 20 games and replace Mike Mussina (who win 20 on a third place team last year) and will be great for at least 5 years. The AJ Burnett signing however, was ridiculous. This clown couldn't get along with the Florida or Toronto media so he is he supposed to handle the presuure in NY? He will never win more than 13 games as a Yankee. I am also not sold on Jaba Chamberlain or a return to 18 win form for Chen-Ming Wang. Andy Pettite is a 13 game winner now so where do they expect to get to 95 wins from. Especially with a bad miidle relief group and an agin Mo Rivera.

The biggest problem the Yanks have though is defense. The key to any good team starts with up the middle defense and Jorge Posada is barely average behind the plate and Robinson Cano and Derek Jeter are posiibly the worst defensive middle infield in the AL. Jeter has less range than ever and can't throw guys out at first from the whole anymore. There outfield consists of Johnny Damon in left, Brett Gardner in center and Xavier Nady in right and none of them can be confused with a Gold Glover. Sure A-Rod and Mark Teixeira are Gold Glovers but corner infielders are not the core of a defense.

These guys will score runs though. Despite a very old lineup it is one that still knows how to hit and work the count. A-Rod will continue to put up huge numbers and Tiexeira should put up .300-30-110. But this is it. When they miss the playoffs this year expect a lot more money to be spent and a lot more bluster from the owners box.

4. Toronto Blue Jays (75-87)

The Jays better beat the hell out of the AL Central and West this year (not inconceivable) because they are going to get beaten like a drum all year byt the Sox, Rays and Yanks. I just don't like the rotation, the lineup or the closer. Other than that they are fine. Other than Roy Halladay and his 18-22 wins (this guy is the best pitcher in baseball. Period.) they don't have a number 2 or 3 starter. I like Ricky Romero a lot but he can't be expected to win 16 games nor can Jesse Litch. As for B.J. Ryan they are better off releasing him right now and using a closer by committee approach. Ryan can't break 87mph with his heater and is completely finished.

I also don't see how this team is going to score a lot of runs unless Adam Lind and Travis Snider both break out, Vernon Wells returns to his form of a few years ago, Alex Rios starts showing his power potential and Scott Rolen proves he can play on turf every day. That's too many ifs, especially Rios. If he puts up another year with only 15-20 home runs and 80 RBI's it will be time to realize this guy is just an average player not worth the money he got in his big contract.

5. Baltimore Orioles (72-90)

The good news for the Orioles is that they actually have some good young players and hot prospects in Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and future catcher Matt Weiters who should be called up from Triple A in about mid June. The bad news is they have a starting rotation that is barely above Triple A calibre. They have retreads like Adam Eaton and Mark Hendrickson rounding it out and the only top 4 guy they have is Jeremy Guthrie. The bullpen isn't that good either so turning to middle relief in the 4th inning 4 times a week isn't going to help much either.

All of that adds up to another year of just enjoying Camden Yards. It's actually pretty sad for a franchise that used to be one of the best in the Majors.

AL Central

1. Minnesota Twins (90-72)

People can talk all they want about the MOneyball success tha A's used to have but the Twins are far and away the better organization. They have been to the playoffs more and consitently reload the team. And they should win this division again this year. The lineup will score with Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer in the middle. They still have strong starting pitching, especially with a healthy Francisco Lariano all year. But most importantly they should rip throught their divisional opponents all summer.

2. Cleveland Indians (85-77)

The Tribe has the whole one year good, one year bad thing down pat. This is the one year good. Grady Sizemore is one of the 10 best players in baseball and is the key to their offense. I am guessing that Travis Hafner will either improve or be on the bench by mid-May so either way the middle of the lineup should be OK. But what will help them compete is the starting combo of Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona who should bounce back from a bad year. Throw in good middle relief group and Kerry Wood in the closer role and they could really push the Twins.

3. Detroit Tigers (81-81)

For the life of me I can't figure this team out. They have the best lineup in the AL and scoring runs shouldn't be a problem at all. Defensively they were bad last year but should be improved with chnages such as putting Brandon Inge back at 3B. The problem I have is their starting pitching. How the hell does Justin Verlander lose 17 games? I think he will have a good year this year and re-establish himself as on of the best in baseball. The rest of the rotation won't though.

4. Chicago White Sox (75-87)

This team is getting old and it will really hit them this year. They won't get 100 HR's from Carlos Quentin, Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome this year which will put moe heat on a starting staff that over-achieved last year. Throw in the very combustible Ozzie Guillen and GM Kenny Williams and this year should be entertaining on the south side, just not productive.
5. Kansas City (72-90)

Believe it or not this team may finally be on the right track. I always liked Gil Meche and thought they Jays should have signed him. He and Zack Grienke are both legitimate top of the rotation guys. Unfortunately the rest of the rotation stinks. And I still can't see them socring any runs. But with Coco Crisp, ALex Gordon and David DeJesus in place at least they have something to build around.

AL West

1. Los Angeles Angels (92-70)

The Angels are not as good as last year but this division stinks so bad it won't matter much because they will rip through it. The starters, once healthy, are all 15 game winners and Brian Fuentes will be fine in the closer role replacing KRod. The ineup is definitely aging. Vlad Guerrero has a lot of miles on him as does Bobby Abreu. I would expect Torii Hunter to put up better numbers this year as well and anchor what is still a very good defensive team

2. Texas Rangers (79-83)

The one thing you know with this team is that with Michael Young, Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz and Hank Blalock they will put up runs. As always though, can their pitchers stop the other team from putting up runs? I don't think so, unless prospects like Derek Holland come in mid-summer and pitch well. By then though they will be out of the race and better off keeping them in the minors.

3. Oakland Athletics (76-85)

It's no secret I hate the whole Moneyball bullshit so I am happy to see the A's going against it and signing Orlando Cabrera and bringing back Jasom Giambi, who does not have much left, and trading for matt Holliday. And after doing that they will still stink because they are have no pitching. None. At least they will have Rickey Henderson Day and his Hall of Fame induction to look forward to.

4. Seattle Mariners (70-92)

I suppose you could make the argument that the M's underachieved so badly last year that they could realistically win 85 games thi year if everyone puts up their normal numbers but I don't buy it. Ichiro looked like he quit last year when things went south, Adrian Beltre is what he is and that is a .275-25-85 guy and as great as it is that Ken Griffey Jr. is back he won't hit over .250. They key to a turnaround has to be the starting three of Felix Hernandez, Erik Bedard and Carlos Silva. If all of them have great years they can bounce back. Don't bet on it.

NL East

1. Philadelphia Phillies (93-69)

This team comes back almost entirely intact from last year's World Series title and they should be better. They are great defensively up the middle, can score runs and have three MVP candidates in Rollins, Howard and Utley. When Cole Hamels gets back he is the ace and Jamie Moyer and Brett Myers can all give you innings. Throw in Brad Lidge to close things and there is no reason they can't win this division

2. New York Mets (88-74)

This is a classic example of a team just not eqaulling the sum of it's parts. The lineup has Reyes at the top and Beltran, Delgado and Wright in the middle but still can't score runs when it really counts. They are good defensively but don't seem to make great plays when needed. And their starters can't go more than 5 innings when it counts. In other words thhis team is completely gutless. And throwing in edge of your seat new closer KRod (vastly overrated) and fans being charged obscene money at the new Shea are going to have a lot to bitch about after another inevitable Septemebr collapse.

3. Florida Marlins (85-77)

Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson and Chris Volstad may be the best top three you have never heard of. Throw in potential 15 game winner Andrew Miller and this time will be in the thick of it again. Especially if they get 65 HR's from their middle infield of Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez again. What will eventually hold this team back though is poor defense (Uggla is awful) and a lousy bullpen.

4. Atlanta Braves (79-83)

If I ran the Braves I would consider just having a couple of terrible years with young guys and rebuilding instead of trying to win and finishing .500. These guys just aren't that good. Chipper Jones is not going to win another batting title and Garrett Anderson bat has slowed a lot, though the switch to the NL should help him. Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar are average infielders and the bullpen is not great. Derek Lowe was a great pickup but their is not much behind him. It's time t blow this up.

5. Washington Nationals (60-102)

These guys are officially the biggest joke in the Major Leagues. Their front office is in shambles and to say there starting rotation is the worst in baseball does not even come close to expressing how bad it is. Their lineup has a bunch of free swingers who strike out too much (Adam Dunn, Christian Guzman), a guy with huge talent but is a head case (Elijah Dukes) and an overrated Lastings Miledge. The only bright spot is Ryan Zimmerman but how long is he going to keep busting his ass and not getting discouraged playing in this mess.

NL Central

1. Chicago Cubs (95-67)
2. Cincinnati Reds (85-77)
3. Milwaukee Brewers (83-79)
4. St. Louis cardinals (78-84)
5. Houston Astros (70-92)
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (65-97)

NL West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (90-72)
2. Arizona Diamondbacks (89-73)
3. San Francisco Giants (75-87)
4. Colorado Rockies (74-88)
5. San Diego Padres (68-94)

AL MVP - Justin Morneau, Twins
AL Cy Young - Roy Halladay
NL MVP - Albert Pujols, Cardinals
NL Cy Young - Carlos Zambrano

AL Wild Card
Boston over LA
Tampa over Minnesota

ALCS
Boston over Tampa

NL Wild Card
Chicago over Arizona
Philly over LA

NLCS
Chicago over Philly

World Series
Boston over Chicago