Oscar Predictions.

One of the best things about the Oscars, or the worst depending on your point of view, is that you can usually accurately predict the winners in the major categories without actually having seen any of the movies. You just have to know what the Academy looks for. Take Leonardo DiCaprio this year for example. His performance in The Departed was better than in Blood Diamond, but in Blood Diamond he had an accent and that's why he got the nod. All actors have to do is play ugly, retarded, or accented and they are almost guaranteed a nomination.

Best Supporting Actress

This is one category that voters like to give to relative newcomers or people who are fairly obscure.

Adriana Barazza, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes On A Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

Who will win: Jennifer Hudson
Don't Be Surprised if: Abigail Breslin

Best Supporting Actor

Same as supporting actress they tend to give it to obscure or new performers. Or in this year's case, a performer who has been around a long time and showed new found versatility.

Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg, The Departed

Who will win: Eddie Murphy
Don't Be Surprised if: Alan Arkin
Person I'd like to see win: Djimon Hounsou. Nobody acting today can act with the raw emotional range this guy can. Not only in this movie but also in In America a few years back.

Best Actress

This will go to a popular actress who usually plays a flashy role. Like The Queen for example.

Penelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes On A Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children

Who will win: Helen Mirren
Don't Be Surprised if: Nobody. Mirren is the night's biggest lock.

Best Actor

This typically goes to veterans who play characters who are either really popular or complete tyrants. Like Idi Amin.

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed, oops I mean Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

Who will win: Forest Whitaker
Don't Be Surprised if: Peter O'Toole

Best Director

You have to pay your dues to win this one. Surely to God Scorcese has paid enough dues. And your movie has to be up for Best Picture.

Clint Eastwood, Letters From Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Paul Greengrass, United 93
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel
Martin Scorcese, The Departed

Who will win: Scorcese. This will be a lifetime achievement award as much as anything. While The Departed was the best movie I saw last year I don't think I would even place it in Scorcese's top five.
Don't Be Surprised if: Clint Eastwood. Half the guys on the Academy idolize Clint. You can't underestimate the affect of that.

Best Original Screenplay

They usually actually go to the best screenplay nominated.

Guillermo Arriaga, Babel
Iris Yamashita & Paul Haggis, Letters From Iwo Jima
Michael Arndt, Little Miss Sunshine
Guillermo Del Toro, Pan's Labyrinth
Peter Morgan, The Queen

Who will win: Guillermo Arriaga, Babel
Don't Be Surprised: Peter Morgan

Best Adapted Screenplay

Again, it usually goes to the best script nominated.

Sacha Baron Cohen and a lot of other guys, Borat
A bunch of people, Children of Men
William Monahan, The Departed
Ton Field & Tom Perrotta, Little Children
Patrick Marber, Notes On A Scandal

Who will win: William Monahan, The Departed
Don't Be Surprised if: Patrick Marber

Best Picture

There is no real rationale for this category as their have been plenty of bad choices. Dances With Wolves over Good Fellas, Forrest Gump over Pulp Fiction and The Shawshank Redemption, Braveheart over anything. And that's just the past 17 years.

Babel
The Departed
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

Who will win: Babel Too much global conflict to not win given the subject matter and global reach of the story.
Don't Be Surprised: The Departed. As I said, this was the best movie I saw last year.