The Pursuit Of Leisure

100% correct, 50% of the time. A tongue in cheek look at culture both high and low.

Thursday, May 29, 2008

Speculative NBA Finals Preview

I'll be away when the Pistons win the next two games to knock off the Celtics (and they will) but no matter, I can make my predictions now because I would be shocked if the Lakers didn't end the Spurs season tonight.

Kobe is the most competitive player and best closer since Michael and I don't see how he can make the final and not close it out. I have kept waiting for Odom and Gasol to lay an egg but it is not going it happen. They are playing great and Derek Fisher adds a lot of moxie and toughness to them.

Lakers over whoever they play in 6.

If the Spurs pull off a miracle I say they will beat the Celtics or Pistons in 6 too.

Odds and Ends

Ms. Skeelo and I are headed to Peru for a much needed ten day vacation tomorrow so this is just a bunch if unrelated stuff from the past week or so.

- Maxim has released their Hot 100 List and I can't argue at all with top choice of Marissa Miller. She's not ready for Pursuit of Leisure Hottie status because I don't think of modelling as a huge talent per se but I have been a huge fan of hers for years. And I now have an excuse to put pictures of her from Sports Illustrated on this site.







If that doesn't help iPod sales nothing will.

- Perhaps the best thing about our trip is that we are leaving the same day the Sex and the City movie opens. I couldn't stand the thought of being around when this putrid mess starts. If I hear people talking about it in South America I am banning myself from ever going to that continent again.

- I think Major League Baseball should go to instant replay for home run calls and home run calls only. Those calls are pretty cut and dry and wouldn't take long to figure out. I think safe or out calls should still be made without the use of replays though. In reality umpires don't get that many wrong and it is often hard to tell whether they are wrong or not. Replaying bang bang plays would make games even longer than they are now.

- How is Joakim Noah getting busted for pot possession in anyway surprising or newsworthy? It's not like this wasn't expected.

- I'm sure Hollywood is shaking in their boots now that the Quebec language police are making themselves look stupid again. Sorry, I mean upset with Hollywood.

It's this type of bullshit that makes the rest of Canada shake their heads.

- Rest In Peace Sydney Pollack. Syndney was able to straddle the line between blockbuster and independent spirited movies better than anyone and managed to make a lot of character driven movies by directing big name stars in the lead roles.

As great a director as he was I loved seeing him on screen. He was always outstanding and always comfortable playing against superstars such as George Clooney in Michael Clayton. After watching Clayton again about three weeks ago I said to Ms. Skeelo the same thing I said after the first time I saw it -"That is a great movie and I just wish Sydney Pollack would take more acting roles".

Thursday, May 22, 2008

NHL Finals.

I think my record to this point in the NHL playoffs is 9-5 but I can't be bothered looking back to check.

This should be one hell of a good final though as for the first team in years the best team from each conference is actually in the Final (actually I guess it happened last year too it's just played out badly with the Sens getting killed by the Ducks).

Detroit Red Wings vs. Pittsburgh Penguins

A lot of friends kept asking me my I picked the Penguins to win the east this year as early as the day that the Sens knocked them out last year and my answer has been the same every day since then - they remind me of the 80's Oilers. I'm not saying they are as good as those teams but they are the closest thing since. With Malkin and Crosby you have the best two centers in the league (Gretzky-Messier), you have other young guys who can score and you have a young potentially great goalie in Fluery (the Oilers had Fuhr). And their progression is on the same track. The first Oilers playoff team lost to the Kings in the first round (like the Pens did last year) then made the Finals the next year losing to the more experienced, deeper Islanders with a better goalie, then won 4 Cups in 5 years.

Well this is exactly the same thing. The Pens are going to lose this series because the Red Wings have better defence and know it may be their last chance just as the Islanders did 23 years ago. But the Pens are going to win the next three Cups so you better get used to them now.

I can see two scenarios where the Pens win this year though. The first is that Chris Osgood doesn't play well for Detroit. I just don't think that's going to happen though. The second is that Gary Bettman rigs this thing so that Crosby wins. I'm not sure that's in the league's best interest though. I think having the veteran Wings win in 7 and then play up the "This year they won't be denied" thing with the Pens next year is the best marketing plan for the league. But of course since that is in the leagues best interest Bettman will screw it up and make sure the Pens win this year.

Wings in 6

Leaf notes:

The Hammer suggested John Tortorella as the next Leafs head coach. I agree with him but probably not for the same reason. I actually think Torts is an overrated coach and a complete asshole (he's a younger, less successful version of Mike Keenan and yes I know Torts won a Cup) but he would be absolutely worth the price of admission just to watch Tortorella deal with the Leaf media. And then having him and next GM Brian Burke together would be hilarious. They would be rippin' on each other and the media at the same time.

The thing with the Leafs is that they really don't need a fire-breathing coach. They need to buy out guys like McCabe and Kubina and go with their young guys. Torts isn't a guy who can work in that situation. As I've said before I would happily watch the Leafs go 14-70 next year just to ensure they get the first pick and John Tavares. So in that sense maybe I do want them to get Torts. He'll be even more fun to watch if the team is absolutely terrible.

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

NBA Conference Finals

I've been in Orlando for a conference since Saturday so my time is extremely limited so this will be shorter than I would like.

I am 11-1 so far and am a Daniel Gibson shoulder injury away from being 12-0 because I will forever be convinced that with a healthy Gibson to knock down open shots the Cavs would have beaten the Celtics.

Eastern Conference Finals

Boston Celtics (1) vs. Detroit Pistons (2)

The only reason anybody can pick the Celtics in this series is blind faith. They have been absolutely awful to this point and show no signs of playing well. They went seven against to bad teams and now they expect to beat the Pistons? Not with Ray Allen playing like a corpse and Kevin Garnett still shying away at crunch time. Rasheed Wallace is going to have a huge series as will Rip Hamilton and Chauncey Billups is going to mop the florr with Rajon Rondo.

Pistons in 6

Western Conference Finals

Los Angeles lakers (1) vs. San Antonio Spurs (3)

Let's just get the fact that Tim Duncan is a bit past his prime (but still the best power forward in the league) and that the Spurs bench is just flat out old out of the way now. The thing they have going for them is Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker are matchup nightmares for the Lakers. I think you'll see Kobe on Manu a lot and Derek Fisher rotated off Parker a lot but Fish just can't keep up with him. On the other side I don't know that the Spurs have an answer for Lamar Odom and Bruce Bowen can't guard Kobe like he used to. I also think Duncan may have some problems with Pau Gasol's versatility.

This series will come down to how well the Lakers unsung bench continues to play and whether the Spurs big three can average 70 a game combined. Regardless of the end result I think this is definitely the passing of the torch series and this year is the Spurs last year as the hunted. I have been picking them all year and am not going to stop backing them now. Their Game 7 against the Hornets proved they are still too damn tough to knock off.

Spurs in 7.

Monday, May 12, 2008

Toronto Sports Scene

- Watching John Gibbons manage the Jays is frustrating as hell because he is managing for the team he wants not the team he has. They struggle to score runs not because they lack power but because they don't run enough.

They are in a division with a lot of right handed (mostly) power pitchers (Becket, DiceK, Mussina, Buchholz, Garza, Wang) who can't hold runners on and catchers who can't throw anybody out (Varitek, Posada). But do the Jays run? Of course not. They have corner infielders, Scott Rolen and Lyle Overbay, who won't hit 30 home runs combined but should hit a lot of doubles. There is no reason that Rios and Wells can't each steal 50 bags and score on a lot of hit and runs that go for doubles.

They are a joke to watch but it's not like JP will do anything about it.

- The Leafs firing of Paul Maurice was not that upsetting to me. I like him and think he's a competent coach, but he's certainly replaceable. The main reason to let him go is that the next GM would have caned him eventually so why go through all the rumours of it happening?

The big problem for the Leafs is that Cliff Fletcher is going to be the interim GM until they can get Brian Burke, whether that takes a year or a week. I tend to think that come the start of the season Burke will be with the Leafs because that's where he wants to be and not Anaheim. Gary Bettman is worried about how it would look if Burke bolted for Toronto and made Anaheim keep him. But how bad is it going to look when Burke clearly doesn't want to be in Cali, sulks through next year then bolts for the Leafs anyway? This will be cleared up sooner rather than later.

- I gotta say i was pretty disappointed to hear Chuck Swirsky is leaving the Raptors. I watch a hell of a lot of NBA games and can honestly say Chuck was one of the most entertaining announcers going. His excitement was contagious and he love the team.

Friday, May 09, 2008

NHL Conference Finals.

Eastern Conference

Pittsburgh Penguins (2) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (6)

Philly is just as young and inexperienced as the Penguins and the Penguins have more talent.

Penguins in 6

Western Conference

Detroit Red Wings (1) vs. Dallas Stars (5)

Nobody is going to beat Detroit the way they are going. Dallas can play them wel but can't win.

Wings in 6

Saturday, May 03, 2008

3/4 2nd Round NBA Preview.

One thing the NHL could learn from the NBA is starting Round 2 before round 1 is fully completed if matchups are set. Of course the NBA could learn to re-seed after the first round the way the NHL does, which is more important. It's ridiculous that if the Celtics put up the biggest choke job in the history of sports tomorrow against the Hawks (and never underestimate Doc Rivers ability to lose a big game) they Cavs play the Hawks while Detroit and Orlando meet in the second round.

I'll do the two series starting today then preview the other series as they start.

May 4 - Now I'll add the Lakers-Jazz

May 6 - Time to add Celtics-Cavs. And for the record I went 8-0 in the first round, though I expect perfection to stop at some point.

Eastern Conference

Boston Celtics (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (4)

There are those that think the Celtics got the scare they needed against the Hawks and everything will be fine now as they role to the Finals. I'm not one of those people. The important thing to remember about Boston's big three is that neither Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen or Paul Pierce has ever won a damn thing. They have all lost in the conference finals and that's it. I now don't see that changing and the biggest reason is Garnett.

I love Garnett and I always have but he never steps up in big games at crunch time. The year he went to the conference finals he had Sprewell and Cassell taking all the big shots. It's insane that a guy with his freakish athleticism and competitive streak settles for 17 foot jumpers and gives the ball up in the last five minutes of close games instead of attacking the rim but that's what he does. Which brings us to the the Celtics opponent this sries - the LeBron James travelling road show. LeBron is the exact opposite of Garnett in that he wants the ball in his hands and is capable of scoring 25 points in the fourth quarter.

So who does Boston have to defend LeBron? Nobody. Boston has great team defense but individually they are not that great. James is going to kill them in this series late in games. I expect Ben Wallace to play pretty well against Garnett and Wally Szczerbiak to nail open shots. On the other side of the ball the Cavs have lousy perimeter defense but I don't think Ray Allen is going to hit many shots (he is really not having a great year though nobody seems to be talking about it) and Pierce hasn't been shooting much from outside

This series comes down to you Kevin Garnett. You're the guy that wanted to go to Boston. You're the guy they built this team around. You're the guy who is supposed to lead thihs team to a championship. You're the leader on this team. And you're the guy who has to take control in the fourth quarter. If you don't all those quiet whispers from your supporters will turn into a deafening silence. Will you? I don't think you will. But LeBron sure will.

Cavs in 7

Detroit Pistons (2) vs. Orlando Magic (3)

The Pistons have a really bad habit of playing to the level of their competition and it showed up against the 76ers in round 1. They can't afford to start slow against the Magic because they are damn good. If this year was Dwight Howard's coming out party than round 1 was the icing on the cake. There were a lot of games this year he didn't really look that interested in dominating despite putting up big numbers. Against the Raptors he was unstoppable. It was as though a light went on and he said "Damn. I'm the strongest guy in this league and nobody can stop me in the low post. So I might as well go for 20 and 20 every night."

The Pistons are better equipped to make him work though. They can rotate Rasheed Wallace, Antonio McDyess and Jason Maxiell on him and make him work every minute he is on the court. Aside from Howard the magic are in some trouble. Tayshaun Prince and Rip Hamilton are great perimeter defenders and will make life miserable for Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis who won't score as easily as they usually do. Neither team is particularly deep so bench strength is a bit of an advantage for the Pistons but not a huge one. But the biggest problem for the Magic is going to be Jameer Nelson against Chauncey Billups. Billups is so strong that he can wear down Nelson and outplay him every night. Billups makes the difference.

Pistons in 6

Western Conference

New Orleans Hornets (2) vs. San Antonio Spurs (3)

It's time to put to bed the notion that the Spurs are boring. They used to be when it was Tim Duncan and David Robinson getting the ball every possession but those days are long gone. Duncan is still boringly efficient but in crunch time Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are just as likely to have the ball in their hands as Duncan. And that's why they are so damn scary to play and so damn fun to watch.

The Hornets are better than anyone gives them credit for. Chris Paul is the best point guard in the league. The problem for the Hornets is that he will match up with Parker who is the second best. David West is one of the best wing players in the league but he is matched up against Ginobili who is better. Tyson Chandler is a great rebounder but is matched up against Duncan, the best power forward ever. I think you can see where I am going with this.

The Duncan-Chandler match up is the key for the Hornets. Chandler was able to score on a lot of putbacks and pick and rolls against the Mavericks but he can't do that against Duncan so they have one less scoring option. Chris Paul is going to get his 20 points and 10 assists a night but he is not going to get the 30-35 point outbursts he had against the Mavs but the Spurs will limit West and Peja Stojakovic. The Hornets are really going to need role payers like Morris Peterson and Bonzi Wells to step up and knock down a lot of shots. Spurs like Michael Finley, Brent Barry, Bruce Bowen and Kurt Thomas are ancient but know their roles so well they can each contribute every night.

The other thing that will hurt the Hornets is the coaching matchup. Byron Scott is getting better but Pop is as good as it gets on the Spurs sideline.

In the end Parker will play Paul even but there will be to much Duncan and Ginobili for the Hornets to handle.

Spurs in 6

Los Angeles Lakers (1) vs. Utah Jazz (5)

I know the Lakers are the one seed but I have thought they were a bit overrated all year. I also think the Jazz have gone under the radar all season. Those two things add up to a hell of a series.

I still can't shake the feeling that Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol are going to let down the Lakers at some point. Carlos Boozer of the Jazz is going to light up Odom in this series but I think Gasol will get the better of Mehmet Okur. What the Jazz will have going for them is vastly underrated point Deron Williams and his inside out game with Boozer,which the Lakers will have a really hard time defending. The second biggest problem the Jazz will have is that Andrei Kirilenko really does not give them much anymore. If he was playing well I would say they would have won the west but he just looks awful compared to a few years ago.

The single biggest problem for the Jazz though is that they don't have anyone who can slow Kobe down (nobody can fully stop him). I know Kobe has been a team first guy this year but in the best interest of the team this series he is going to have to go off. And he will. At least enough times to win this series.

Lakers in 7

Thursday, May 01, 2008

Suns and Raptors Should Swap

Now that the Raptors season is over GM Bryan Colangelo needs to fire Sam Mitchell immediately (I respect the Mavs canning Avery Johnson two days after their season ended because the decision now won't linger. More on that in a minute).

Mitchell has really done all he can do with this team and can't get them any further. The players like him but his tantrums and emotions are going to start to wear thin soon, especially if the team is not improving. And they won't improve because he is a lousy game coach. He always looks confused the last five minutes of close games and can never get the right defensive matchups he wants, which is a sign the other coach is doing a better job.

Who should replace Mitchell? Mike D'Antoni, who almost certainly won't be back with the Suns next year. D'Antoni is in a similar situation to Mitchell in that he wasn't hired by his current boss/GM and therefore the current GM has no vested interest in him. D'Antoni pushed hard for the Shaq trade and he will be the fall guy. Colangelo loves him and he would be a perfect coach for the Raps (yes I know Bill Simmons pointed this out yesterday on ESPN.com but I was thinking it since the Suns choked away games 1 & 2 against the Spurs).

I think D'Antoni is a great 2nd tier coach. The only truly great coaches in the league (guys who can manage both players and games, the first tier guys) are Phil Jackson, Gregg Popovich, Jerry Sloan, Pat Riley (he'll be back) and Larry Brown. D'Antoni has lost two years in a row to Popovich but so does everyone else. Those who say he can't coach don't know squat about basketball. If you think he should be fired it is because the Suns just need a change not because he deserves it. He was stuck with a bad defensive team and couldn't overcome it. Steve Nash is not and never has been a good defender, Shaq is slower than he used to be and Diaw is clueless. The guy who should be their best defender is Amare Stoudemire and he has absolutely no interest at all in defense. You could say that is D'Antoni's fault but I guarantee you there next coach doesn't get anymore out of him either. Sure they had a stopper in Shawn Marion but they had to trade him because they couldn't win with him because he was such a whining me first guy that he doesn't give a damn whether he wins or loses as long as he gets his $18 million per year.

I also think Colangelo should try to deal with Steve Kerr. The Raps need to sign Jose Calderon immediately as their starting point next year then trade Jason Kapono and TJ Ford to the Suns for Leandro Barbosa. The Suns need a quick young guard to spell Nash (Ford) and even have on the court at the same time to play even faster, and a three point shooter to spread the floor (Kapono). They can sign a defensive perimeter player and give it one last run next year. The Raps need another athletic forward who can score and Barbosa is perfect for them. Especially if D'Antoni is running the team.

Other notes....

- Avery Johnson didn't deserve to get fired but he should have been fired. What I mean is he did a good job over three years with this team but the team quit on him and he just couldn't coach a veteran team. He will fit in really well with a young team that is still developing.

The real problem for the Mavs is that their roster just isn't that good. Nowitzki is a key piece but not the key piece on a title team. Jason Kidd is way past his prime and is there for another long year. Jason Terry isn't getting any better, Erik Dampier is useless and untradeable and Josh Howard has really hurt his trade value with his awful performance on and off the court the past two weeks.

If I was Mark Cuban I would trade Dirk for two first rounders, a young forward and expiring contracts. That way he will have plenty of cap room when Kidd comes off the after next year and start this whole thing over.

- Apologies to the Atlanta Hawks for suggesting they had no hope in hell against the Celtics. I think they will lose the series but I underestimated how loose they would play and failed to remember just how terrible a coach Doc Rivers is for the Celtics. When Joe Johnson scored 20 points in the fourth quarter with Ray Allen guarding him in Game 4 the funniest thing was Doc being caught on camera saying "God Damn It Ray." What the hell did you expect Doc? Allen has never been a good defender and you have him on a guy who can't miss. With Rovers reverting back to his former idiotic self the Celtics are no longer sure things to win their next series against the Cavs let alone the whole thing.