Baseball Lucks Out.

It was completely ridiculous that Game 5 of the World Series lasted beyond the second inning last night with that horrendous weather in Philly. MLB can thank it's lucky stars that the Rays tied the game in the 6th because that was the only thing that made them stop this game.

To have a World Series clinching game played last night, and don't think for a second that the game would have been suspended if Tampa hadn't tied it, would have been a complete disaster for baseball and Bud Selig. Now they will attempt to play three innings tonight to finish the game, which to me is another joke. What stops either team from throwing out a starter tonight instead of their middle relief as it should go in a game like this?

The big problem is that there are too many off days in the Wild Card and LCS rounds so they have to squeeze games in in potentially brutal weather, such as last night, to ensure the Series is over in October. There is no reason the 5 game division series can't be done in 7 days and the 7 game LCS can't be done in 9 days. Accomplishing that would allow for games to be called as it should have been last night.


Also:

Look for a really half-assed and way to late hockey preview tonight or tomorrow as well as detailed NBA preview over the weekend (hint Lakers over Cavs in the Finals).

World Series Mini-Preview

I'd love to take a very long crack at breaking down this series but unfortunately I am working on a huge client proposal right now (real job getting in the way again) and can only give you this:

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Philadelphia Phillies

This is an interesting series because I don't think either team is being taken as seriously as they should be. The Rays ripped through a brutally tough division than won a Game 7 against Boston nobody thought they would win. The Phillies won their division with a stacked lineup and everyone just figured the Mets choked again. Then they beat the Dodgers easily and everyone said the Dodgers stunk even though the killed the choking Cubs.

Both these teams have great top of the orders. Right now Upton and Longoria are every bit as hit, actually hotter than Burrell and Howard because Howard has not done much this post-season. And the Rollins-Utley combo is better at the top of the order than the Rays. But the Rays have better starting pitching than the Phils and better defense in the outfield. The Rays lack of a designated closer doesn't matter because they can keep rolling David Price or Grant Balfour out to finish games.

Rays in 6

Maybe It Is Deja Vu All Over Again

I had the pleasure of watching the greatest comeback in playoff history last night in the ESPNZone in downtown Denver. I got into my hotel and unpacked my bags in the third inning then headed for the Zone knowing their would be a bunch of transplanted Boston folks there to watch it with.

I quickly found a group of University of Denver students from Boston and plunked down with them. I gotta admit it was like a funeral watching that game through 6 and a half innings. Then Papi woke up and launched a three run homer. At that point we knew they would come back we just didn't know if it would be in the 9th or 16th inning. Luckily it was the 9th because we couldn't have taken another 5 innings. Unbelievable.

I'm still not convinced the Sox will win Game 6 but I certainly think they can. Something tells me that Beckett is going to gut through a game, but he can't throw a gem. If Shields is off then we have a 6-5 game with the Sox fans in Tampa going crazy. We'll see. I'll be back at the ESPNZone to watch it though.

Red Sox Are In Big Trouble.

In 2004 Boston killed the Angels in the ALDS, fell behind the Yankees 3-0, came back to beat them and then swept the Cardinals to win the World Series. In 2007 Boston killed the Angels in the ALDS, fell behind the Indians 3-1, came back to beat them and then swept the Rockies to win the World Series.

So far this year the Red Sox killed the Angels in the ALDS and fallen behind the Rays 3-1. Is it deja vu all over again? I'm not too confident. In '04 I predicted after the Yankees went up 3-0 that the Red Sox would win the next 4 (and have friends who can back up that claim), as well as saying last year they would beat Cleveland. I don't see that this year though. The Rays are unbelievably confident for one thing, but the biggest problem is Boston's middle relief is no longer reliable and the Rays will grind DiceK, Beckett and Lester over the next three starts (if it goes the distance) to get to the bullpen.

Boston is also missing some of their swagger. Part of that is because Manny is gone, but mostly it's because they are so beat up physically right now. Losing Lowell was a blow because he was such a clutch hitter and Ortiz just doesn't look right.

It's not that DiceK, Beckett and Lester can't string together three gems to pull this thing out, I just don't think they will. I think they will win Game 5 with DiceK, but lose Game 6 in Tampa with Beckett getting hit hard again. BUT, if they make it to Game 7 Lester will win it for them as I predicted at the start of the series. Just don't bet on him getting the chance.

LCS Predictions.

Now that the Cubs are done it's safe to say they are never going to win the World Series. I don't believe in curses but I do believe in post-season incompetence. The Cubs choke job leads to the second biggest possible story of the playoffs - Manny headed back to Fenway for the World Series.

ALCS

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox

It's amazing how much October 20, 2004 changed the fate of the Red Sox. Before they knocked off the Yankees that night you always expected, and got, the worst. In Game 4 the other night the Sox blew a 2-0 lead in the eighth inning and you still knew they were going to win that game. Pre-October 20, 2004 the Angels would have scored another six runs in the 8th and then went back to Anaheim and won Game 5. Things have changed and this is the Sox decade.

Not to take anything away from the Rays because all year I have believed in them and that is not going to change now. They are fully capable of winning this series and some might even call them the favorites and I wouldn't disagree. They are playing with such confidence that they will be shocked if they lose. They were also 10-8 against the Sox this year so they know they can beat them.

I expect BJ Upton, Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria to continue to hit in this series and there is no reason there defense, the most underrated aspect of this team, won't be great. The one area I do have questions about is their bullpen. I know it has held up all year but I still think they may let them down. I also don't think there top three starters, Kazmir, Shields, and Garza, match up evenly with DiceK, Beckett and Lester. Beckett looked shaky against the Angels in his one start but he should be fine in this series. And Lester looks unbeatable right now and has become a playoff performer.

On the offensive side the Sox lose a lot with Mike Lowell out. His numbers were not great this year but he is always a guy you want up in the late innings of a tight game. They won't miss his defense that much because Youk is also a great third baseman and Kotsay brings athleticism to first base.

The Sox also have automatic closer Johnathan Papelbon coming out of the pen, but in front of him I think the middle relief is a bit shaky, just like the Rays. Anyway you look at it this is one hell of series and very even. I think John Lester makes the difference in Game 7.

Red Sox in 7

NLCS

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

For all the talk of the Cubs incompetence the Phillies history is every bit as miserable but they are not even lovable. We are talking about a franchise that has only one World Series title in 125 years, they just happened to win theirs in 1980 so the heat is off. Except in Philly of course, the roughest town in North America to play in. Expectations are high there right now but wait to see how fast the fans turn on them when Derek Lowe beats them in Game 1 tonight.

Philly has flown under the radar this year despite the best 1-4 hitters in baseball in Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Pat Burrell and Ryan Howard as well as a very good bullpen. I think part of the reason is because there starting pitching lacks a dominant power guy and really only goes three deep. And although Brad Lidge was a perfect 41 for 41 in saves this year, when Manny comes up in the ninth inning you know he is going to have Albert Pujols 900 foot blast in Houston in the back of his mind.

The Dodgers regulars season record was deceptive because they only had Manny for the last 53 games. Their record in September and what they did to the Cubs is indicative of what this team is. Let's get one thing straight though. Manny is carrying this team but he is not leading them. Manny has never been a leader and never will be. What he is is an awesome hitter who gets hot and carries a team for weeks at a time.

What the Dodgers also have is a very good top of the rotation with proven clutch playoff starter Lowe, and Billingsley and Kuroda behind him. And wouldn't it be great to see Greg Maddux have one last gem in him?

The difference in this series will be the Dodgers offense though. With Manny in the lineup it means the very underrated Andre Either, Russell Martin and even Jeff Kent are seeing pitches to hit because you don't want men on when Manny comes up. The Dodgers will continue to score runs in this series and their starters should shut down the Phils offense enough to move on.

Dodgers in 6.

About That Cubs Pick.....

- I honestly didn't see the Cubs turning into the Same Old Cubs again. I really didn't. The second inning last night was almost unbearable to watch. If I was a Cubs fan I would have seriously considered giving up on them. There is a slight chance they can win the next three games but I really don't see how. Harden may win Game 3 but they won't beat Derek Lowe in Game 4. And if they did somehow beat Lowe in Game 4 you know something horrendous will happen to them in Game 5. What a mess.

- If you're a Red Sox fan, which I am, how do you feel seeing Manny on fire without any trace of his phantom knee injury? I'm sure most Sox fans are pissed. I personally accept it as Manny being a goof the final few weeks in Boston and finding new life in LA. I'll always like Manny and still say I would rather watch him hit than anyone else in the past 25 years. When he is hot, like is right now, there is nobody you would rather have at the plate in a big situation.

I can only imagine the talk shows in Boston are going nuts in Boston after the article Bill Simmons wrote yesterday about Manny's trade. Was it Boras' fault? I say no it wasn't because Manny is nowhere near as stupid as people make him out to be. This is all on Manny. The biggest problem was that the team wanted him gone. He just wasn't worth putting up with any longer. As for the complaint that they traded a first ballot Hall of Famer for Jason Bay, well Yeah they did but Manny is going to be 37 next year and ain't the guy he used to be.

The most you can automatically pencil in for Manny to start the season at this stage of his career is 140 games and .285-28-85, not the 150 games .315-35-115 you used to be able to get. He still might give you more than that but it is not automatic. With Bay you pencil in the exact same numbers and he is a better base runner and better defensively. I guarantee you Bay's collective numbers over the next three years will be better than Manny's. He's also six years younger and at least $10 million a year cheaper. Moving Manny was consistent with Theo's philosophy of not handing out huge contracts to guys who will be in their late 30's at the tail end of the deal. Only in this case Manny would have been in his late 30's at the start of the deal. I'll always like Manny but he had to go.

And would there be anything better than a Dodger-Red Sox World Series with Manny back in Fenway? Now that the Cubs are about to go down faster than Jenna Jameson.

- I think the Angels are going to get swept by the Sox. They just can't beat Boston in the playoffs and it is in their head now. As I said earlier this week the three best starters in this series are all on Boston but the Angels bigger problem is they can't score runs. Vlady looks completely lost in the playoffs and Garrett Anderson has almost nothing left.

- Nobody is paying any attention to the Phils but they can easily beat the Dodgers. There lineup is stacked and there pitching is just as good as the Dodgers. That should be a really good series.

- More on the Rays after Game 2 tonight.

MLB Playoff Preview.

After a delay I plan to be back here regularly now that the baseball playoffs have started. I managed to get half the post-season teams right from my season preview and the Rays making it didn't shock me. The only team I was surprised about was the White Sox. But they are getting bounced anyway.

So who wins it all? After 100 years the Cubs are due. The world will likely explode when the Cubs beat Boston to win this year's World Series in just under a months time. Crazy but true.

ALDS

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox

I wasn't surprised by Tampa's great pitching or offensive ability this year. What really surprised me, and the reason they won their division, was how great their defense has been. Up the middle they are the best team in the league. Combine that with Kazmir, Shields and Garza as their top three and they are awfully tough to beat in a short series.

The White Sox on the other hand overachieved during the first half of the year and were pretty average the second half. I really don't their pitching holding up or them scoring enough runs to win more than one game in this series.

Rays in 4

Anaheim Angels vs. Boston Red Sox

Skeptics have said all year that the Angels have run up a great record in a lousy division. I say part of the reason the rest of the division looked so bad was because they had to play the Angels so often. The Angels are the Majors best team over a 162 games season or a seven game series. Unfortunately for them they don't stack up well against the Red Sox in a five game series. All year long the thing that I was worried about with the Angels is that they have 3 No. 2 starters and 2 No. 3's. They don't have a true ace that you need in a short series. Compare that to the Sox with Josh Beckett (though he will only start Game 3) and Dice K. Throw in John Lester who was great in the playoffs last year and you have No. 1's.

If this was a seven game series I'd be going with the Angels. But it's a five game series.

Red Sox in 5

NLDS

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers

What a roller coaster the Brewers have been on. It's easy to think that momentum can carry them through a first round 5 game series but their momentum is CC Sabathia and Sabathia alone. The had to ride him so hard down the stretch that he can't go until Game 2 in this series. I think the Phils are a lot better than people think they are and I think Cole Hamels is ready for a few huge playoff starts. If the Ben Sheets was there for the Brew Crew this one might be different. As it stands CC just isn't enough.

Phils in 4

Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

What the Red Sox lost most when they traded Manny was the intimidation he brings to a lineup. When he is hot, like he has been since the day he showed up in SoCal, pitching staffs are terrified to face him. That alone could carry the Dodgers through this series. The other thing the Dodgers have on their side is their good right handed pitching in Derek Lowe and Chad Billingsley, which happens to be the Cubs one weakness.

What the Cubs have going for them is the scariest 1-2 punch in the playoffs in Zambrano and Harden, a pretty damn good number three in Ryan Dempster and an offense that can ride any one of Lee, Soriano, Ramirez or Soto. Hell, even Zambrano hit .337 with 4 dingers. They also have confidence and a belief that this really is their year. Which it is.

Cubs in 4