Red Sox Are In Big Trouble.

In 2004 Boston killed the Angels in the ALDS, fell behind the Yankees 3-0, came back to beat them and then swept the Cardinals to win the World Series. In 2007 Boston killed the Angels in the ALDS, fell behind the Indians 3-1, came back to beat them and then swept the Rockies to win the World Series.

So far this year the Red Sox killed the Angels in the ALDS and fallen behind the Rays 3-1. Is it deja vu all over again? I'm not too confident. In '04 I predicted after the Yankees went up 3-0 that the Red Sox would win the next 4 (and have friends who can back up that claim), as well as saying last year they would beat Cleveland. I don't see that this year though. The Rays are unbelievably confident for one thing, but the biggest problem is Boston's middle relief is no longer reliable and the Rays will grind DiceK, Beckett and Lester over the next three starts (if it goes the distance) to get to the bullpen.

Boston is also missing some of their swagger. Part of that is because Manny is gone, but mostly it's because they are so beat up physically right now. Losing Lowell was a blow because he was such a clutch hitter and Ortiz just doesn't look right.

It's not that DiceK, Beckett and Lester can't string together three gems to pull this thing out, I just don't think they will. I think they will win Game 5 with DiceK, but lose Game 6 in Tampa with Beckett getting hit hard again. BUT, if they make it to Game 7 Lester will win it for them as I predicted at the start of the series. Just don't bet on him getting the chance.