The Pursuit Of Leisure

100% correct, 50% of the time. A tongue in cheek look at culture both high and low.

Sunday, April 08, 2007

Major League Baseball Preview Continued.

Here we go with the National League preview. And don't bitch to me that the we are already a week into the season because 6 games don't mean anything.

Again this year the National League will be terrible (or Quadruple A as Bill Simmons referred to it last year) and the AL is going to own inter league play.

National League East

1. Philadelphia Phillies (Predicted record 95-67)
The Phils have the reigning MVP in Ryan Howard, future Cy Young winner Cole Hamel, a deep rotation and a lineup that also includes Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Pat Burrell. Howard is fully capable of matching last year's .313-58-149 and Hamel is going to win 17 games in a breakout year. But what is going to make the big difference this year for the Phillies is a full year with Jamie Moyer, the best 5th starter in the league, and Freddy Garcia. Garcia is a big game pitcher who can pitch 200 innings in the NL and should also win 17 games. The only real potential weakness for this team is that expected closer Tom Gordon is now 39 years old and prone to injury. But GM Pat Gillick is more than capable of pulling off a big mid season deal if he needs to.

2. New York Mets (92-70)
The Mets are going to score a tonne of runs because they still have the best 1-6 in the majors in NL in Jose Reyes, Paul Lo Duca, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, David Wright and the ageless Moises Alou. Billy Wagner is still a great closer. The issue for the Mets is starting pitching. Tom Glavine should have a strong year and win 18 games on his march to 300 career wins, and Orlando Hernandez can still baffle hitters but they are not going to get much from starters 3-5. If either John Maine or Oliver Perez can pitch consistently they will stay in the race until Pedro Martinez can be healthy in the late summer and carry them to the Wild Card.

3. Atlanta Braves (88-74)
The Braves will be competitive late into the season based on having John Smoltz and Tim Hudson at the top of the rotation. The bullpen is still a problem but it has been for 16 years and they still managed to win the division every year. What is going to hurt the Braves is that aside from Chipper and Andrew Jones they don't have much strength in the lineup. I like Brian McCann behind the plate and at bat but I think Jeff Francoeur is at the top of his potential and Kelly Johnson and Edgar REbteria are not top of the order guys on a playoff team.

4. Florida Marlins (84-78)
Marlins fans have won 2 World Series since 1997 so they are a lot better off than most fans but don't tell them that. This team has a great young rotation with Dontrelle Willis, Anibal Sanchez, and Scott Olsen. They have a good young bullpen with some power arms and some great Young position players like Hanley Ramirez, Dan Ugllad and the phenomenal Miguel Cabrera. But they are still too young and short another middle of the order bat to contend seriously until at least next year.

5. Washington Nationals (54-108)
The Nationals starting rotation is likely to include John Patterson, Shawn Hill
(a Mississauga boy who played a year for the same amatuer organization I did, the Etobicoke Rangers), Matt Chico and Tim Redding. That says about al you need to know about how ewell this year's nationals are going to be. They have a decent closer in Chad Cordero but he is not going to have many save opportunitties. There also going to struggle to score runs because while Ryan Zimmerman is a true middle or the order guy Nick Johnson and Austin Kearns, whol will hit 4-5 are number 6 hitters on agood team. I hope the honeymoon for Washington fans isn't over yet because this is by far the worst team in the major leagues.

National League Central. By far the worst division in baseball.

1. Milwaukee Brewers (84-78)
Yeah that's right the Milwaukee Brewers. It's important to keep in mnd that the Cardinals won this division last year with 83 wins and the division is just as bad this year. The Brew crew has the best 1-2-3 starters in the division in Ben Sheets, Chris Capuano and Jeff Suppan. They also have a better than average bullpen with Francisco Cordero ready to save 30 games. But what should carry the Brewers to the playoffs for thr first timein 25 years is a potentially great young lineup that has last year's breakout star Bill Hall, Richie Weeks and J.J. Hardy as the table setters and Prince Fielder who is ready to have his first of many .300-30-100 years.

2. St. Louis Cardinals (81-81)
The Cardinals were the worst World Series winner I have ever seen last year and they have lost ground. Chris Carpenter is the only proven starter and their middle relief is a big problem. The lineup isn't that strong aside from Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen because Jim Edmonds is on the down side of his career. Where the Cardinals will continue to shine is defensively and that strong up the middle defense is the reason they will remain in the hunt for thihs division.

3. Chicago Cubs (80-82)
The most fun race in the NL this year is going to be for the home run crown as Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols battle new Cub Alfonso Soriano. Soriano hit 46 playing in cavernous JFK stadium last year for Washington and may hit 60 this year laying in Wrigley. Soriano is joined by other strong middle order guys like Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez which means the Cubs sould be fun to watch. But the rotation will be a problem as always. Carlos Zambrano may very well win 20 in his contract year but Ted Lilly, who got handed the dumbest off season contract in baseball, is going to bomb and lose 15 games.

4. Houston Astros (77-85)
It's hard not to think the Astros have run out of opportunities. Craig Biggio is over 40, Carlos Lee had a big contract year that he won't repeat and Morgan Ensberg is not a 5 hitter. The one constant they will have in the lineup in Lance Berkman. The Astros biggest problem though is the rotation which is pretty pedestrian after Roy Oswalt. Jason Jennings and a past his prime Woody Williams are not playoff starters and there is little behind them. I think Brad Lidge is still a great closer but should still consider taking out a restraining order aginst Albert Pujols so he doesn't ever have to face him again.

5. Pittsburgh Pirates (77-85)
The Pirates have enough young talent to make a real run in this divsion. If they can finally get big years out of Zach Duke and Tony Armas Jr. their rotation can be good. Their 3-4-5 hitter, last years batting champ Freddy Sanchez, new addition Adam Laroche, and stud Jason Bay are going to keep them in games and their defense is above average. But a weak bullpen that lacks a true closer will keep the Pirates from contending deep into September. But at least this team is finally headed in the right direction.

6. Cincinatti Reds (68-94)
It's going to be a very long year for Cincy fans because when Bronson Arroyo is your ace your in trouble. Arroyo is a good pitcher who eats up a lot of innings but he is a number 3 starter elsewhere. The bullpen is terrible and is going to have a hard time holding the few leads they are given. And the lineup is going to have a hrad time scoring runs because Ken Griffey Jr. is on his last legs and Adam Dunn strikes out too much. I eageryl await the promotion of 1B Joey Votto by mid season. I don't actuallt expect that to happen it is really just a shameless plug for Votto who is the Reds top hitting prospect and who is another Etobicoke kid who played for the Etobicoke Rangers (he's 8years younger than I am so I didn't play with him).

National League West

Los Angeles Dodgers (97-65)
Even with the loss of Greg Maddux the Dodgers still have the best starting rotation in the majors due to the addition of Jason Schmidt. Combined with Derek Lowe, Randy Wolf and Brad Penny the Dodgers should run away with this division and head to the World Series. The offense lead by Nomar Garciaparra and Jeff Kent is old but will still be able to score enough runs to win games. The bullpen is going to be tested with a lot of small leads but they will hold up.

2. Arizona Diamondbacks (88-72)
Call thi a hunch but I think the DBacks are going to be good this year. Randy Johnson should win 18 games back in the NL and Brandon Webb may well win 20. Number 3 starter Livan Hernandez never misses a start and is good for 230 innings. They have a decent bullpen which will likely end up with a closer by committee but what is really appealing about this team is the young talented lineup that includes SS Stephen Drew, 1B Conrad Jackson and CF Chris Young. They are going to score enough runs to get them close the wild card.

3. San Diego Padres (85-75)
If this were 2001 I would pick them to win this division with Greg Maddux and David Wells in the rotation. But it's not and these guys are just old now. They can both still win 14-15 games but that's not enough in this division anymore. This team is also going to have a hard time scroing runs because Brian Giles is done as a big time hitter and Mike Cameron is not a 3 hitter. They still have the most dominant closer in the NL, Trevor Hoffman, but that won't be enough.

4. Colorado Rockies (77-85)
The Rockies are heading in the right direction and have some good young starters like Jeff Francis and Aaron Cook. The have a closer in Brian Fuentes and they still have Todd Helton, who should be Comeback player of the year, Garrett Atkins and Matt Holliday in the middle of the order. But until they get more depth in the bottom of the rotation the Rockies won't contend fo the division.

5. San Francisco Giants (75-87)
Cheering for Barry Bonds as he marches past Hank Aaron is about all the excitement Bay area fans are going to have this year. Barry Zito should fare well in the NL and win 16 games but the rest of the rotation is brutal and the bullpen is banking on the erratic Armando Benitez to close out games. The lineup is also completely over the hill with guys like Dave Roberts, Omar Vizquel, Ray Durham and Rich Aurillia in addition to the 43 year old Bonds. Things are going to get a lot worse for the Giants before they get any better.

Cy Young - Carlos Zambrano, Cubs

MVP - Ryan Howard, Phillies

Rookie of the Year - Josh Hamilton, Reds who should get playing time when Jr. inevitable goes on the DL

Playoffs

NLDS Dodgers over Mets
NLDS Phillies over Brewers
NLCS Dodgers over Phillies

World Series Tigers over Dodgers

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