The Pursuit Of Leisure

100% correct, 50% of the time. A tongue in cheek look at culture both high and low.

Wednesday, October 07, 2009

Division Series Preview.

I really don't know what to think about the regular season this year as we head into the playoffs because every team has a fatal flaw. Every team that is except the Cardinals. And for that reason I think they will beat the Angels in the World Series.

ALDS

New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins.

Anyone who thinks the Yanks are a shoe-in to win the World Series hasn't watched them much this year. They have a great lineup and everyone knows that but outside of CC Sabathia there starting rotation is very thin. Do you honestly think AJ Burnett is going to pitch well under the playoff spotlight? Or that Andy Petite will regain his old playoff form? Or that their middle relief will suddenly not be shit? If the Yanks do win it is because they score 7 runs a night to do it.

And they have to get by the Twins first, which is not as easy as people think. There is a lot to be said for a team that has won 17 of 21 and has been fighting for a month to get into the playoffs. And don't forget about what a bitch of a place the Metrodome is to play. The thing that hurts the Twins though is that they start in NY tonight without a day off. Their rotation is thin but so is the Yankees. If they can win one of two in NY, which I think they will, they will win this series.

Twins in 4.

Anaheim Angels vs. Boston Red Sox

I watched a lot of Josh Beckett starts down the stretch and he does not look right at all. Luckily John Lester does as does Johnathan Papelbon. If Beckett can return to playoff form of years past the Red Sox will win the World Series because their lineup can still put up runs when it counts. You also can't dismiss the fact that they have owned the Angels in the post-season the last 6 years.

The one Achilles heel the Angels have always had is that they don't have a true ace. But I don't think that will matter as much this year because other rotations in the AL are not stacked either. I think the Lackey, Weaver, Kazmir and Santana quartet should be enough to get them through, especially the way there lineup can manufacture runs.

Angels in 5

NLDS

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies

If Brad Lidge had been even average this year I would have the Phillies winning the World Series again. Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels are the scariest one-two in the playoffs and their lineup of Rollins/Utley/Howard is still terrifying. They are also an excellent defensive team. I just think Lidge is going to kill them in a couple of tight games.

The Rockies are kind of like the Twins in that they are on fire. They have an underrated rotation but De La Rosa tweaked his groin in his last start. If he isn't 100% he won't be able to shut down Howard and Utley, which is key to beating the Phils.

Ultimately I just don't see the Rockies lineup scoring enough against Lee and Hamels

Phils in 4

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

The Dodgers have not so quietly been pretty average the second half of this year. Their offense is not great and their rotation is not great. The key to this team will be whether lefties Randy Wolf or Clayton Kershaw can shut down the Cards offense. The Cards can be had by lefties (which is why I would pick the Phils to beat them if they had a decent closer) but I don't think it will be the Dodgers lefties to shut them down. Their success really comes down to Manny. If he catches fire he can carry them through a round or two, if not they are toast.

The Cardinals are the most complete team in baseball. That doesn't necessarily mean the best, but it means they should win the World Series. Carpenter and Wainright are a great one-two and a good closer in Ryan Franklin. They also have a great game tactician in manager Tony LaRussa. And they still have Pujols and Holliday in the middle of the lineup.

Cardinals in 3.

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