NFL Week 4

A couple things before we get started with the picks:

- Bill Simmons tackled this on espn.com and I think it is valid - Why does everyone think the Pats are going to go 12-4 because Brady is back? I mean they could because nobody is fantastic anymore, but I see them more as a 9-7 team. Brady has been taking a beating this season and he won't have the legs to go the entire season if his O line continues to play like it has more holes than Swiss cheese.

- I'm not too concerned with the Steelers as my Super Bowl pick despite their bad start. They lost Troy Polamalu for half the season but once he is back they should be OK. They are certainly no lock to win the AFC but I am not sure who is. At least not yet.

- I do think that if the Ravens go into New England and beat the hell out of the Pats, which they will, they have to be the favorite in the AFC. Their defense is still hellacious but they have now correctly taken the kid gloves off Joe Flacco and he is proving he can win games for them. It's gong to take a hell of a good game to beat these guys in the playoffs.

Last Week: 9-7
Season: 25-23

TEXANS -9.5 over Raiders I said when he got drafted #1 overall that Jamarcus Russell would be a bust but he might end up being a Ryan Leaf type bust. At least a guy like Brady Quinn knows what he should be doing behind the center. Russell has shown he has absolutely no clue how to play QB.

Titans -1.5 over JAGUARS I don't think the Titans are as bad as 0-3 might indicate and I am certain the Jags are.

Ravens +3 over PATS I don't think this will be close. Tom Brady is just going to get killed in this game.

Bengals -3.5 over BROWNS If the Rams aren't the worst team in the NFL the Browns are.

Giants -9 over CHIEFS The Giants look like the best team in the NFC so far and I don't see the Chiefs slowing them down at all.

BEARS -11 Lions The Lions will be emotionally spent after actually winning a game last week.

Bucs +7.5 over REDSKINS How badly has Dan Snyder screwed up the once proud 'Skins? Badly enough that I am taking the atrocious Bucs to cover, that's how badly.

COLTS -11 over Seahawks Hats off to Peyton Manning. I think at this point he could line up with the Pop Warner team around him and make the playoffs. He really is that bloody good.

SAINTS -6.5 over Jets I think the Jets are due for a bt of a letdown and the Superdome is a tough place to play when the Saints are rolling, which they are.

DOLPHINS PK over Bills Who the hell would even want to watch this game?

49ERS -10 over Rams If the Browns aren't the worst team in the NFL the Rams are. If they weren't in the NFC West I would say they had a realistic shot at 0-16.

BRONCOS +3 over Cowboys Neither team has beaten anybody good so I am going with the home team. As for the Broncos winning the AFC West they are in perfect position. They are 3-0 and only need to go 7-6 the rest of the way to do it. The next seven weeks are tough but if they come out of it at 3-4 they are fine.

STEELERS -5.5 over Chargers Both teams have to win this game, it's prime time, and Chargers coach Norv Turner usually gags in prime time games he has to win.

PACKERS -3.5 over Vikings Call me crazy but I think the Pack wants to destroy Brett Favre even more than he wants to destroy them.