NBA Playoff Preview.

Thanks to the Miami Heat sleeping through the first half of last season then turning it on and winning the championship, this regular season was pretty dull because a lot of teams decided to take the same route. Which makes this year's playoffs a hell of a lot harder to predict. Last year I went 14-1 and I think I have about a 3% chance of matching that success this year. This year it all comes down to matchups as I have said all year. All I will guarantee is that their are only four teams who can win the whole thing - The Suns, Mavericks, Spurs and Pistons.

Western Conference

Dallas Mavericks (1) vs. Golden State Warriors (8)

This is a great series for a number of reasons. First, this isn't your typical 1 vs. 8 series because the west is so strong Golden St. is 8 but are still a dangerous team. Second, Warriors coach Don Nelson gets to match up against his last team and the owner he hates. And third, Golden St. swept all three games during the regular season. The Warriors Baron Davis is the third best point guard in the league when he is healthy and he is very healthy right now. Stephen Jackson, if he isn't arrested during the series, is going to score a lot of points. I just don't think the Mavs will be able to continue to have the Mavs number for 7 games. I think Dirk Nowitzki is going to be huge and the Mavs will play just enough defense to get by in this series. But don't be shocked if the Warriors pull this off.

Dallas in 6

Phoenix Suns (2) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (7)

Be very shocked if the Lakers pull this one off. If the Lakers had been healthy all season I think they would have a real shot in this series but with injuries to Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum they go into the playoffs playing terribly defensively. There is just no way they can slow down the Suns despite having the best player on the floor, Kobe Bryant. The key for the Suns is to go at Kobe on the defensive end. He's going to score his 40 points a game but he wears down when he has to work on his own end and I expect the Suns to go right at him. The biggest improvement for the Suns this year has been the defensive improvement of Shawn Marion in the second half. He is a stud stopper now. Steve Nash is still a bad defender but the Lakers don't have anyone good enough at guard to exploit him. This series will appear close but won't be. Kobe will score enough to win 2 games himself but the Suns will win by 10+ points in their four wins.

Suns in 6

San Antonio Spurs (3) vs. Denver Nuggets (6)

This is another potential upset. I don't think the Nuggets are consistent to win more than one series but the way they score they can win this one. Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson have finally come together and that's scary for the Spurs because it could wear down point guard Tony Parker. Nene has quietly improved a lot in the second half and Marcus Camby is a good offensive rebounder who will score on some putbacks. On the defensive end Camby will also slow down Tim Duncan (nobody stops him) which will hurt the Spurs. The difference in this series is going to be Manu Ginobli and to a lesser degree Michael Findlay. If they play well the Spurs win. I think they will.

Spurs in 6

Utah Jazz (4) vs. Houston Rockets (5)

This one is a coin flip. Both these teams would be the best team in the east but are stuck facing each other in the first round in the west. Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming are obviously huge for the Rockets and there record was great when they were both healthy. Throw in defensive stopper Shane Battier and they are tough to beat. The Jazz play very tough up front with Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur but Andrei Kirilenko has had an off year. His numbers are not bad, he just hasn't had the same impact as last year. His drop off will cost the Jazz who are still a year away from doing serious damage.

Rockets in 7

Eastern Conference

Detroit Pistons (1) vs. Orlando Magic (8)

It's nice to see Grant Hill healthy for the Magic in the playoffs but they are completely overmatched. Their only real chance in this series is if man child Dwight Howard goes for 30-15 a game with 5 blocks. The Pistons are too experienced and too good on the road to lose this series. They will breeze into the second round with Rip Hamilton scoring a tonne of points.

Pistons in 5

Cleveland Cavaliers (2) vs. Washington Wizards (7)

The Cavs, specifically LeBron James because he is the Cavs, are a real puzzle. They were very average the first two thirds of the season and very good the last third. But they did not improve at all over last year and they should have won 55 games in this conference. The Wizards on the other hand played hard all year, especially down the stretch after losing their two best players to season ending injuries. Without Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler the Wiz will get trounced in this series which is too bad because it could have been a good one.

Cavs in 5

Toronto Raptors (3) vs. New Jersey Nets (6)

This was the worst possible scenario for the Raptors. Playoff experience is more important in the NBA than any other league and Nets point guard Jason Kidd has been to the finals twice. He is the best PG in the conference and is going to outplay T.J. Ford very badly. Ford is an exciting player but he is not a great player. He runs too much, makes bad decisions and takes too many bad shots. And coach Sam Mitchell isn;t a good enough tactician to put Jose Calderon, who is the much better PG on the floor. The thing that scares me most though is that the Raps are the one team Vince Carter is always pumped to play. Chris Bosh should have a big series because the Nets are awful up front. I expect Anthony Parker to hold Vince to some low scoring nights but the Raps don't have anyone who can then stop Richard Jefferson. As much as it kills me the Nets are going to win this series.

Nets in 6

Miami Heat (4) vs. Chicago Bulls (5)

Another repeat first round matchup from last year. The Bulls now have Ben Wallace up front and he has proven in the past he can slow down Shaq at times. The difference with this Heat team is that Dwayne Wade had been more banged up this year which means Shaq will be the man in this series for them. The bulls don't impress me that much and they still have no frontcourt scoring which means they will have to rely too much on Kirk Heinrich and Ben Gordon. And that's not good. Both guys can score but I have watched about 10 Bulls games this year and they make two many bad decisions leading to turnovers and force too many bad shots at the end of close games. That is going to kill them in this series.

Heat in 6