NBA Preview

I know I'm a couple of days late with this but it's not as if the Heat's huge loss opening night is going to change my mind on anything. I may skip playoff predictions entirely this next spring after going 14-1 in predictions in last years playoffs. It's kind of like doubling down and winning three straight times with a face card showing vs. dealer 10. You just smile and walk away.

Here goes with predicted order of finish:

Eastern Conference (which again this year is absolutely terrible)
1. New Jersey
I say 1st overall for no other reason than Vince Carter is in a contract year and wants to cash in next year with Orlando. And they still have Richard Jefferson and Jason Kidd, who will be backed up this year by the steal of the draft Marcus Williams. The frontcourt stinks but they will get enough scoring from the big three.

2. Cleveland
A full year with a healthy Larry Hughes and the offense moving through LeBron means big things from the Cavs. Their front court is serviceable in this conference and don't think for a second that LeBron isn't seething that Dwayne Wade beat him to the NBA Championship.

3. Miami
Yeah the Heat are a year older. Yeah Shaq only really plays when he wants to and Gary Payton and Antoine Walker might take a lot of stupid shots now that they have their rings. But the they still have the best coach in the league and Dwayne Wade, arguably the best player in the league (though I wouldn't argue he is). And they proved last year the regular season doesn't mean squat in this conference.

4. Washington
Gilbert Arenas may be the most entertaining guy in the league. He is just a flat out flake. He is also a guy who plays with a big chip on his shoulder which got bigger over the summer by his snub from Team USA. Heis going to go for about 30 a game this year. Antawn Jamieson will continue to provide secondary scoring and play enough D to make this team really good.

5. Detroit
This team might actually be better without Ben Wallace. Their other starters are still good defenders and now they are playing with 5 guys on offense instead of 4. I look for Tayshaun Prince to have a big year and make the All-Star game. I still don't see them finishing higher than 5th because I don't think Flip Saunders is a very good coach. It will be fun to watch Rasheed Wallace get rung up for 75 T's this year though.

6. Chicago
This team is not as good as a lot of people think. Their guards are going to have to score about 85 points a game for them to win. Their frontcourt of Ben Wallace, P.J. Brown, and Tyrus Thomas (who I've said before is going to be a complete bust) is virtually useless with the ball in it's hands. In a league where the trend has moved to offense I don't understand what the hell they were doing bringing all those guys in.

7. Orlando
Here is where the conference shows it's weakness. 7-15 is a crap shoot becasue everyone else is bad. I think Orlando will get enough games out of Grant Hill to make the playoffs. They work hard and Dwight Howard is an absolute beast on the boards and is getting better offensively. I also think Darko will also take advantage of the chance to show he can actually play this year.

8. Toronto
This may be a senitmental choice but I actually think the Raps can make the playoffs. The Villaneuva for TJ Ford deal was terrible (you don't trade a potential 18-9 guy for a quick point guard when quick point guards are a dime a dozen) but I'll give Colangelo credit for bringing in some guys Jorge Garbajosa who can really play. With top pick Andrei Bargnani and Nesterovic playing center (likely poorly) it gives Chris Bosh the chance to move to the 4 spot and become the best big man in the east. Yes that includes Shaq. Bosh will lead them to the playoffs.

9. Indiana
If this team can keep itself out of jail they can be a top 5 team in the conference. They have a great big man in Jermaine O'Neal, play strong defense and have a few different scoring options. The reason I think they won't be any good is because they have about 6 guys on this team who are legitimate headcases.

10. Milwaukee
Michael Redd is going to continue scoring. Andrew Bogut and Charlie Villaneuva gives them a decent frontcourt. They have decent guard play. And that's about it really.

11. Boston
Doc Rivers is an absolute lock to be the first coach fired this year. But whoever steps in isn't going to have much to work with. Paul Pierce and Wally Szczerbiak are their to score but Sebastien Telfair and Rajan Rondo are not the answer at point guard. And their defense is going to be awful. They have nobody up front who can play at all.

12. Philadelphia
How does a team with Chris Webber and Allen Iverson rank this low? Webber is a shell of his former self after multiple surgeries. He'll still be a consistent 17-8 guy but the days of him springing for games of 35-15 are done. And Allen Iverson's best days are well behind him. I think he could contribute on a better team but he can't carry them himself anymore. They should have traded him over thr summer when they could have got nearly full value for him.

13. Charlotte
This team will be lousy but at least they'll be un to watch with Adam Morrison putting up, and making, shots from all over the floor. Look for him to average 18-22 a game and be a leading rookie of the year candidate. On the defensive end of the floor though, he really can't guard a fence post.

14. Atlanta
What a complete mess this franchise has become. They have very little to work with and took Shelden Williams way to high at the #5 pick. Expect to see them tanking games at the end of the year so they can increase there chances in the Greg Oden sweepsatkes.

15. New York
The Knicks are the number 1 reason to watch the NBA this year. Watching Isiah's last season will be the funniest reality show on TV. He likes Stephon Marbury which means Steve Francis will sulk like crazy. There frontcourt is awful, Quentin Richardson might eat himself out of the lineup, and the media will be all over them. And they will be tanking games for the final three months of the season to increase the chances of getting Oden into the NY market.

Western Conference (which again this year is absolutely stacked)

1. San Antonio
Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobli were playing at about 50% health during the playoffs last year. And they still took a fourth quarter lead into game 7 against Dallas before losing. That's really all you need to know about the Spurs who are healthy again and ready to rampage. They will win 65 games.

2. Phoenix
If Amare Stoudamire was 85% of what he was before his knee surgery I would say the Suns will win the title but I don't think he will be. Steve Nash will continue to be Steve Nash and Shawn Marion will continue to score from the wing but without a fully healthy Amare down low defensively they still don't have enough D to beat the Spurs.

3. Dallas
It's hard not to think that last year was their year. I don't see how they are going to get better. Dirk Nowitzki has got as good as he's going to get (that's not an insult the guy s awesome) and there isn't that much room for improvement with guys other than Josh Smith. They'll be there at the end but I don't see it happening for them.

4. LA Clippers
What's more unlikely? That the Clippers were very good last year or that owner Donald Sterling spent the money required to make sure they are very good again this year. This team is a hell of a lot of fun to watch. Elton Brand is a stud up front, Cory Magette can score in bunches on the wing, Chris Kaman is a pretty damn good center, and Sam Cassell can take and make the big shots. If Shaun Livingston emerges as a star this year they can go to the finals.

5. Denver
I'm going on a hunch with this one. I think Carmelo is tired of hearing how great DWade and LeBron are and wants to be in on the "who's the best" discussion. I thknk he is going to pop for 28 a game this year and carry this team on his back. And he'll need to because Kenyon Martin is done as a big time forward and Andre Miller couldn't shoot the ball into the ocean from the beach.

6. Houston
A team with Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady should be good. But I think what holds them back is that the two of them will never figure out how to play together. Brinign in Bonzi Wells and Shane Battier was a stroke of genius. But if they don't make huge strides this year McGrady is going to get moved at year end.

7. LA Lakers
Kobe Bryant is still the best player in the league because he is a lock down defender when he needs to be. After Lamar Odom's infant son died this past summer he dedicated himself to becoming the star he has shown flashes of throughout his career. That's bad news for the pretenders in this conference because there is really only one playoff spot up for grabs. Throw in a few good role players like Smush Parker and Luke Walton and they are going back to the playoffs.

8. Utah
I think Andrei Kirilenko is the most underrated player in the league. He does everything. And his wife gives hm one night a year to screw whoever he wants (not relevant to this preview but a cool fact). Carlos Boozer is strong upfront and their backcourt will score enough to squeeze into the final playoff spot.

9. Sacramento
Mike Bibby is still one of the three best point guards in the west which will keep the Kings competitive. Ron Artest is still one of three most likely guys in sports to land in jail half way through the season which will keep the Kings out of the playoffs.

10. New Orleans
The home crowds in the Big Easy are going to be good enough for an extra 5 wins this year. Throw in Peja Stojakovic and Tyson Chandler to go with superstar in the making Chris Paul and this guys are headed in the right direction.

11. Golden State
Some people are picking the Warriors to make the playoffs and for the life of me I can't figure out why. Baron Davis will thrive under new coach Don Nelson but they still start Mike Dunleavy Jr. and Troy Murphy. No team in this conference can start those two and make the playoffs.

12. Minnesota
Two things to watch this year: 1- Who gets traded first - Iverson or Kevin Garnett? 2- Who gets fired first - Billy King or Kevin McHale? This team is going to be bad and it's not going to be much fun watching Garnett having to go through another bad season. On the bright side they had a great draft with Randy Foye who will become a rookie of the year candidate when everyone realizes Mike James stinks.

13. Memphis
Hey Mike Fratello - How ya gonna do without Pau Gasol for three months? Not too damn good is my bet. He was the glue that held this team together and they will struggle a lot to find scoring. It's going to be a long year.

14. Seattle
It's going to be another long year for Ray Allen. At least he can conitue his assualt on Reggie Miller's alltime 3 pointer record in relative obscurity. They might not win 25 games.

15. Portland
Well at least they may not be the Jail Blazers this year. While I thiink it was moronic not to draft local boy Adam Morrison, they still did well with LeMarcus Aldridge and just stole Brandon Roy in the draft. They still have Zack Randolph up front who will average a double double and only get arrested a couple of times. They are still at least 3 years from being any good though.

Finals - Spurs over Heat

MVP - LeBron

Coach of the Year - Mike Brown

Rookie of the Year - Adam Morrison