Oscar Predictions

I know I'm cutting it close but I wanted to get my predictions in. And the fact that I have seen all five Best Picture nominees probably does not help at all.

Best Picture

Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood

What Will Win: No Country For Old Men. It seems voters screw up this category 7 times out of 10 but this year they will get it right. No Country was absolutely the best movie of the year. It's not even close.

Don't Be Surprised: Atonement. It's got everything voters love but director Joe Wright did not get a nod which never bodes well for Best Picture.

There Will Be Blood was too polarizing, Juno vastly overrated, and Michael Clayton too under the radar.

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie - Away From Her
Marion Cotillard - La Mome
Laura Linney - The Savages
Ellen Page - Juno

Who Will Win: Julie Christie

Who Might Win: Marion Cotillard

Best Actor

George Clooney - Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd
Tommy Lee Jones - In The Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises

Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis

Don't Be Surprised: Nobody. Day-Lewis was too phenomenal to lose. Any other year Clooney or Depp would have a real shot but they don't this year. That's how good Day-Lewis was.

Best Supporting Actor

Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James
Javier Bardem - No Country For Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook - Into The Wild
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton

Who Will Win: Javier Bardem. He's almost as much of a lock as Day-Lewis.

Don't Be Surprised: Tom Wilkinson.

Best Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Ruby Dee - American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton

Who Will Win: Saoirse Ronan. Blanchett won hers a couple eyars ago so I like the kid in an upset.

Don't Be Surprised: Cate Blanchett, though I would love to see Swinton take this one.

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen - No Country For Old Men
Tony Gilroy -Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman - Juno
JulianSchnabel - Le Scaphandre et le papillon

Who Will Win: The Coens. Finally.

Don't Be Surprised: Maybe Paul Thomas Anderson based on the performance he got from Day-Lewis but more specifically Paul Dano, which was also fantastic.

Best Original Screenplay

Diablo Cody - Juno
Nancy Oliver - Lars And The Real Girl
Tom Gilroy - Michael Clayton
Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco - Ratatouille
Tamara Jenkins - The Savages

Who Will Win: Tom Gilroy in a coin flip.

Don't Be Surprised: Diablo Cody. The fact that she's a former stripper will get her a lot of votes.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Christopher Hampton - Atonement
Sarah Polley - Away From Her
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen - No Country For Old Men
Ronald Harwood - Le Scaphandre et le papillon
Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood

Who Will Win: The Coens

Don't Be Surprised: Christopher Hampton