The Pursuit Of Leisure

100% correct, 50% of the time. A tongue in cheek look at culture both high and low.

Sunday, May 07, 2006

2nd Round NBA Playoff Predictions

The first round was pretty damned entertaining, a hell of a lot better than usual. Now the real fun begins as their are 4 very intriguing matchups in round 2. I could see three of the series going either way, with only the Pistons being a mortal lock. The NBA needs to change their playoff system to match the NHL though. The highest seed left should always play the lowest remaining seed. It is absolutely ridiculous that San Antonio and Dallas finish with the two best records in the West but meet in the second round.

Eastern Conference

Detroit vs. Cleveland
LeBron James is an absolute stud. Forget the Michael Jordan comparisons. First of all, LeBron is more like Magic than Michael, but the best comparison is Oscar Robertson. Michael couldn't rebound or pass like LeBron, and Magic couldn't score like Lebron. The Big O could do all three but was nowhere near as athletic. And LeBron is only 21. When Michael was 21 he was still at North Carolina. LeBron is also 6'8, 240. He's a man-child and he knocked out the Wizards with two buzzer beaters and told Gilbert Arenas if he missed two free throws he would blow the series (which Arenas then missed). I have devoted this much time to LeBron because this will be the last chance to talk about him this year because the Cavs don't have a snowball's chance in hell of beating the Pistons. James may be the best player in the league (I'm not saying he definitely is but he is in that conversation) but the Pistons are the best team. They are so strong and aggressive defensively that they can keep switching and putting fresh bodies on LeBron and wear him out. The rest of the Cavs just aren't good enough to pick up the slack. And the Pistons are also a very good offensive club this year with 4 guys capable of going for 30 on any night. I'll devote more time to the Pistons next round. Meanwhile, enjoy the new #23 while you can. This is just the beginning.

Pistons in 5.

Miami vs. New Jersey
My adage about teams relying on Vince Carter to lead them to victory is to automatically bet against them if the other team is of equal talent. Carter is gutless and you can't win with him as your main guy. Fortunately for the Nets, Jason Kidd seems to realize that and Richard Jefferson gets as many touches at the end of the game as Carter. jefferson is scary good in the clutch and wants the ball. The Nets are going to need it because they don't have anybody who can stop Shaq up front. Shaq is older and slower than he used to be, but he is still plenty good enough to dominate this series. He also realizes that the Heat are Dwayne Wade's team, not his. Wade is another guy who is in the best player in the league discussion and will eat Vince alive. Gary Payton can still play some defense and will slow down Kidd enough that the Heat will win close games. Antoine Walker will also score in this series because the nets don't have enough D to stop everyone.

Heat in 6

Western Conference

San Antonio vs. Dallas
This is going to be one hell of a series. Now that the Mavericks know how to play defense, not great defense but good enough defense, they are going to scare the Spurs. Dirk Nowitzki is unstoppable for the Mavericks and the rest of the team know their roles. Avery Johnson has coached the hell out of them and is a very confident presence for them. The Spurs look banged up. Tim Duncan is not 100% and Manu Ginobli did not look good at all against the Kings. Tony Parker has had a break out year, if that's possible for a point guard who has already won a title, and Greg Popovich is still a great coach but unless Ginobli's health gets better pronto the Spurs may not have enough offense to keep up with the Mavs. I'm calling the upset.

Mavericks in 7

Phoenix vs. Los Angeles Clippers
After the scare the Lakers gave the Suns in the first round, they should be completely freaked out having to go back to the Staples Center. And the Clippers are a lot better than the Lakers. This will be another test for the Suns but Steve Nash is still the best point guard in the league. It will be very interesting to see him against Sam Cassell who is a huge playoff performer. Elton Brand is going to have a field day against the thin Suns front-court and he is lethal in the open court, so the up tempo pace will play right into his hands. The question is how guys like Cory Maggette and Shaun Livingston are going to take the pressure of the second round. I don't think they will hold up. Key Suns like Shawn Marion have been there before and just went through a huge scare against the Lakers. The Clips will learn a lot in this series, and will be very scary next year, but the Suns time is now. They now getting by the Clips early will help them rest for the survivor of the other series.

Suns in 6

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