The Pursuit Of Leisure

100% correct, 50% of the time. A tongue in cheek look at culture both high and low.

Saturday, April 19, 2008

NBA Playoff Preview.

After what was unquestionably the best regular season in the past 20 years the playoffs are going to be even better. For the last month I have been trying to figure out whether Phoenix or San Antonio would win the title. And now they are meeting in the first round!

But now that the playoffs are starting I can't shake the feeling that this is just the Celtics year. They don't have anyone who can match baskets with LeBron in a second round match up, Rasheed Wallace can play Garnett to a stand still in the Eastern Finals and Tim Duncan can match him in the Finals but I still just think they are going to win. It's too storybook not to happen. Celtics over Spurs in 7 in the Finals. And my dragging my ass to work for the next 6 weeks after watching these games on the Raptors channel, the best HD channel ever invented.

And as always placing wagers based on my predictions makes you a complete idiot.

Eastern Conference

Boston Celtics (1) vs. Atlanta Hawks (8)

The Hawks will consider this season a success just for making the playoffs for the first time in eons. And that's good because they are going to be done in 4 games. The Celtics are just too good and too fired up to let the Hawks even beat them once. No need to break this series down, the Celts are just better in every way you can measure.

Celtics in 4

Detroit Pistons (2) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (7)

The Sixers are another team that should be pretty happy just to have made the playoffs but I think they can win a game. They can't win the series but they can compete. Andre Igoudala is a star in the making, Samuel Dalembert can give the big guys on the Pistons some trouble on the inside and Andre Miller will make Chauncy Billups work. The Sixers just aren't deep enough to contend yet.

Pistons in 5

Orlando Magic (3) vs. Toronto Raptors (6)

This is the only series in the east that will be interesting. The Raps play the Magic well because Jose Calderon and TJ Ford can exploit the Magic's weak play at point guard by Jameer Nelson and Chris Bosh's speed and agility forces Dwight Howard to play away from the basket. The x factors in this series are how well Jose Calderon plays for the Raps and how well Hedo Turkoglu plays for the Magic against Andrea Bargnani. I know Calderon will get the better of Nelson but I am damn certain Turkoglu will light up Bargnani who has looked awful this year. And that will be the difference.

Magic in 7

Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs. Washington Wizards (5)

The Wiz have three of the four best players in this series in Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler and Gilbert Arenas. Unfortunately for them the best player in the series is LeBron James. LeBron has become an absolute force of nature and I wouldn't be surprised if he was able to drag the bunch of stiffs he plays with to the Finals again. LeBron averaged a staggering 30-8-7 this season and by the way he's only 23. He's also starting to figure out how to play defence because he realizes Ben Wallace and Zudrunas Ilgauskas are essentially useless at this point and he has to do everything. It's terrifying to think what this guy will do when he has real teammates.

Cavs in 6

Western Conference - Where I have absolutely no clue what will happen after the first round. Or during the first round.

Los Angeles Lakers (1) vs. Denver Nuggets (2)

If you liked the NBA in the 80's you'll love this series because the Nuggets don't play any defence at all. Kobe must be licking his chops knowing he will score about 45 a game. I'm still not convinced the Lakers are the team to beat because I need to see Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol prove they can do anything other than be terrible in the playoffs but they will beat the Nuggets. Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony will score enough points for Denver for them to win a game or two but they can't win.

Lakers in 6 with the winning team in each game scoring at least 120.

New Orleans Hornets (2) vs. Dallas Mavericks (7)

This is where the Jason Kidd trade blows up on Dallas. Chris Paul is absolutely going to embarrass Kidd in the open court, half court, and any other way they can play. The Hornets don't have to defend Kidd int he half court so they can double up on Dirk, which will give the Diggler fits. Kidd will be tired from trying to stop Paul so he will be ineffective on the break. A lot of people say the Hornets are still a year away from winning everything, and I agree with them, but they are good enough to send this Mavericks team into the grave.

Hornets in 5 and Mark Cuban blowing Dallas up in the off season.

San Antonio Spurs (3) vs. Phoenix Suns (6)

It's not too often you get the Conference Finals in the first round. This is an absolutely fascinating series. Shaq is fired up to prove he can still play and wants to get ring number 5 before Duncan does; the Spurs looked washed up about 4 different times this year then came back with long win streaks; Steve Nash isn't getting any younger and this may be his last realistic shot; Manu Ginobili has become one of the 5 or 6 best players in the league and nobody seems to realize it; Amare Stoudemire has been playing out of his mind since they got Shaq.

I think Shaq and Duncan will cancel each other out and Tony Parker will get the better of Nash because Nash can't guard him. The Spurs don't have anyone who can guard Amare so he will go for 25-13 a game. Grant Hill will be effective for the Suns as will Bruce Bowen and Kurt Thomas (a steal at the trade deadline). So it comes down to this - Can Leandro Barbosa outplay Ginobili? That question has to have every Suns fan ready to puke. After all they have gone through this year Leandro Barbosa is their key to winning. And that ain't a good thing.

Spurs in 7 which is a shame because I really want to see the Suns win the whole damn thing.

Houston Rockets (4) vs. Utah Jazz (5)

Here's is how good the west was this year - The Rockets won 22 in a row and finished 4th. And will lose in the first round as they did when these two teams met last year. The Jazz are better than last year and the Rockets are worse without Yao Ming. They just don't have anyone who can match Carlos Boozer inside or Deron Williams on the break or half court. Add in Kyle Korver draining threes and this one is actually a mismatch. I think it's great what the Rockets did this year without Yao but they just aren't deep enough.

Jazz in 6. The Jazz are actually my dark horse. That is if you can call a 54 win team a dark horse. They are so damn good at home that if the they can win a few games on the road they can beat anybody.

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