The Pursuit Of Leisure

100% correct, 50% of the time. A tongue in cheek look at culture both high and low.

Monday, April 14, 2008

MLB Preview. Better Late Than Never.

I know I'm about two weeks late on this but time constraints killed me. So I now present my admittedly half-assed American league preview (NL to follow hope fully tomorrow).

AL East - still the best division in baseball, which means the Yanks will miss the playoffs because the wild card is coming out of the central (I'll explain my logic as we go).

1. Boston Red Sox (94-68)

The Sox have every piece back from last year and will have Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz for the full year. Most importantly they have a motivated Manny in a contract year who will win the MVP award. And they still have Josh Beckett, the best big game pitcher going.

2. New York Yankees (91-71)

The Yanks are probably the third best team in the AL but will likely miss the playoffs because of the unbalanced schedule. They have to play the Jays, Red Sox, and improved Rays so often they won't win enough divisional games to get through.

Their offense is what is going to keep them in contention. Their pitching is still suspect especially with Mike Mussina now a 5 inning guy, An old Andy Pettitte and a piss poor middle relief. I expect Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain to be great, just not this year. They also have a very old starting lineup that needs to stay healthy, which is always a tough task.

Beat them this year while you can though because Giambi, Abreu, Pettitte and Mussina are gone at the end of this year so they will be loading up on good young guys over the winter via free agency.

3. Toronto Blue Jays (88-74)

If things break perfectly for the Jays they can win the Wild Card. But they won't. They have the second best rotation in the league (though no lefty starter is a concern) but an average bullpen with no guarantee BJ Ryan will be healthy all year. Scott Rolen is also likely to be injured part of the year. The offense is good, just not good enough.

4. Tampa Rays (85-77)

This team is much improved because of its great young starting pitching. Getting Matt Garza for headcase Delmon Young was a steal and having him as their number 3 shows you how deep their staff will be. They also have a nice combination of speed and pop in the lineup with BJ Upton, Carlos Pena, Carl Crawford and Rookie of the Year to Be Evan Longoria. These guys are the reason the Yanks will miss the playoffs.

5. Baltimore Orioles (57-105)

What Peter Angelos has done to this once very proud franchise is a disgrace. This is easily the worst team in the Majors. Their pitching is awful and they can't score any runs. They might lose 110 games.

AL Central - The Tigers and Indians are making the playoffs because they get to beat up on the other three teams in this division.

1. Detroit Tigers (95-67)

They are playing lousy right now but I am not too concerned. Their starting pitching is too good for them not to win. Especially with that lineup they have. You've got new addition Miguel Cabrera batting 5 which is all you need to know about how deep they go.

Don't expect a hell of a lot from Dontrelle Willis though. His mechanics are just terrible. He over strides with his front leg which leaves his arm too far back when he lands putting too much stress on his shoulder and elbow. He is a surgery waiting to happen.

2. Cleveland Indians (93-69)

The Indians still have the best 1-2 starters in the AL in CC Sabathia (who will be the opening day starter for the Yanks in their new park next year) and Fausto Carmona and a strong lineup which should be bolstered by a comeback year by Travis Hafner. They also have a strong defense and a good 'pen.

3. Minnesota Twins (78-84)

A lot of people are writing the Twins off but they shouldn't be that bad. Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer, Justin Morneau and Delmon Young (who shouldn't get into too much trouble in Minny) are a strong middle of the order and their rotation is decent with the addition of innings eater Livan Hernandez and the return of Francisco Liriano. This team won't be great but they should compete.

4. Chicago White Sox (75-87)

The White Sox tried to make themselves younger with Nick Swisher but Swisher is a pretty average player. They key guys on this team like Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko are still old. And their starting staff is not very deep past Mark Buehrle. If they don't start out well they will check out for the second half of the year as all veteran teams do when things go bad. I also suspect they have had enough of Ozzie Guillen's bullshit and he will get sacked at the end of the year.

5. Kansas City Royals (69-93)

It's going to be another very long year in KC. But at least they have some building blocks in Alex Gordon, Billy Butler and John Buck. And at least their fans get to watch this perennial mess in a beautiful stadium.

AL West

1. Anaheim Angels (90-72)

The addition of Torri Hunter gives the Angels someone to protect Vlady Guerrero and the best lineup in the division. They also have the best starting staff and best closer in Francisco Rodriguez. That all adds up to another division title for this team.

2. Seattle Mariners (88-74)

Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez could win 40 games between them, it's the rest of the starters that concern me. Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Batista have very little left and they may need to trade for another starter. Their lineup should be better than last year though. Brad Wilkerson was a nice pickup and Richie Sexson is in a contract year so I expect big things from him. If they can get anything from the bottom of their rotation they could win the Wild Card.

3. Texas Rangers (76-86)

This team just hammers the ball. Josh Hamilton can easily hit 40 home runs playing full time in this hitter's paradise. Milton Bradley is crazy but he is also consistent, Michael Young is good for 200 hits and Hank Blalock should hit .300. The Rangers problem is their pitching is terrible, both starters and relief. They are going to play a lot of 11-8 games this year.

4. Oakland A's (72-90)

I hate Billy Beane so I am openly rooting for this team to be awful. And they will be. Their lineup has no power aside from Jack Cust who will challenge the record for strikeouts in a season, no speed at all and nobody who will hit over .285. The only chance they really have to compete is Rich Harden staying healthy, which is one hell of a thing to gamble on. Huston Street is a pretty good closer but he won't have many chances. I think he will be traded by early July.

Wild Card - Detroit over Anaheim
Boston over Cleveland
ALCS - Detroit over Boston

MVP - Manny Ramirez
CY Young - Josh Beckett
Rookie of the Year - Evan Longoria

2 Comments:

At 11:36 PM, April 14, 2008, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ballsy picking the Rays to win 85. I think they'll be better but not that much better. Agree on the Tigers. Except for Cleveland, that division is down and down a lot. 90 plus wins for that team should not be a problem.

Curious to see how you think the Diamondbacks will do.

 
At 8:28 AM, April 15, 2008, Blogger Skeelo said...

The short answer is I think the D'Backs will win the NL and lose to the Tigers in the WS.

I think I actually said that really quickly here a few weeks ago.

NL preview hopefully tomorrow.

Look at the Rays lineup, it is really stacked. You're just not used to thinking that. The Yanks are a bit down, the Orioles are terrible and the bottom of the AL Central and West are bad so they can beat those teams. And the NL still stinks so they can have a strong inter-league record.

 

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