The Pursuit Of Leisure

New Look

2010-11-04T18:01:00.002-04:00

Hi all,

I have been eerily silent on this site for a long time. It was a strange but great summer that found me separated from my wife of 8 years (together for 12 years), a lot of travel (LA, Edinburgh, Dublin, Vancouver, Whistler, Victoria), a triumphant return to the world of coaching baseball (the inaugural season of the Inter-County Ottawa Fat Cats), a new career and a move to Toronto.

This blog will have all the usual stuff plus observations on living back in Toronto, world travel, a return to single life and the like. Stay tuned.

I also figured it is about time I came out of the blogging closet. My name is Dave Smyth. Nice to meet you.

RIP Sparky Anderson

2010-11-04T18:00:00.001-04:00

I was sad today to hear of the passing of Sparky Anderson. I was fortunate enough to meet Sparky a couple of times and he was one of the nicest men I ever met.

MLB Division Series

2010-10-06T08:48:00.001-04:00

I am still in Dublin so no analysis. Sorry.

AL

Tampa over Texas in 4
NY over Minny in 5

NL

Philly over Cincy in 4
SF over Atlanta in 4

NFL Week 4

2010-10-03T02:32:00.003-04:00

Rough week last week. I am about to go hiking in the Scottish Highlands so I need to make this quick.

STEELERS -1.5 over Ravens
Broncos +6.5 over TITANS
Bengals -3 over BROWNS
PACKERS -14.5 over Lions
Panthers +3.5 over SAINTS
FALCONS -7 over 49ers
Seahawks -1 over RAMS
Jets -5.5 over BILLS
Colts -7 over JAGUARS
Texans -3 over RAIDERS
Cardinals +8 over CHARGERS
Redskins +5.5 over EAGLES
GIANTS -4 over Bears
Patriots -1 over DOLPHINS

NFL Week 3

2010-09-26T09:23:00.002-04:00

I am in the process of packing to move so I can't offer any commentary this week. And next week I am in Scotland so by week 5 I will have something to say. By then you know who is good and who isn't anyway.

GIANTS -3 over Titans
Steelers -2.5 over BUCS
RAVENS -10.5 over Browns
PATRIOTS -14.5 over Bills
SAINTS -4 over Falcons
CHIEFS +2.5 over 49ers
PANTHERS +3 over Bengals
Chargers-5.5 over SEAHAWKS
Redskins -3.5 over RAMS
Lions +11 over VIKINGS That's right I am picking them again.
TEXANS -3 over Cowboys
Colts -5.5 over BRONCOS
JAGS +3 over Eagles
CARDINALS -4.5 over Raiders
DOLPHINS -2 over Jets
Packers -3 over BEARS

Last Week: 8-7-1
Season: 18-13-1

NFL Week 2

2010-09-18T16:59:00.002-04:00

For some reason I was having trouble posting my picks last week. You will have to believe me when I say I went 10-6.

PACKERS -13 over Bills
VIKINGS -5.5 over Dolphins
FALCONS -6.5 over Cardinals
Ravens -2.5 over BENGALS
Chiefs +2 over BROWNS
Bears +7.5 over COWBOYS
TITANS -5 over Steelers
LIONS +6.5 over Eagles That's right. I am betting on the Lions this year.
BRONCOS -3.5 over Seahawks
PANTHERS -3.5 over Bucs
CHARGERS -7 over Jaguars
Texans -3 over REDSKINS
RAIDERS -3.5 over Rams
COLTS -5 over Giants
Pats -3 over JETS
Saints -5 over 49ERS

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 10-6

The Thursday Nighter

2010-09-09T17:37:00.002-04:00

I will do a full weekend picks tomorrow.

SAINTS over Vikings tonight.

Steelers over the Pack in the Super Bowl.

The PGA

2010-08-12T08:51:00.002-04:00

I know Phil has a chance to become number 1 this week, and I think he will have a good week, but I don't see him winning.

With the links style layout of Whistling Straits I think Rory McIlroy wins his 1st Major. If not for the brutal weather conditions he had to play in round 2 of the British he would have won that. The way he is playing I have to go with him.

As for Tiger, I would be less if he missed the cut than if he had a top 10.

The British Open

2010-07-14T15:11:00.002-04:00

I would love to see and Englishmen win this week and I think both Justin Rose and Luke Donald have a great shot at winning it. I just think Tiger wins Major number 15 this week. The fact that he is still going through his divorce, and more importantly for him, putting a new putter into play does not bode well but he owns St. Andrew's. He did not play well at either The Masters or the U.S. Open and still finished 4th in each. He will get back to his winning ways this week.

As for Phil, if he is ever going to win an Open Championship this is it. He can bomb the ball all over St. Andrew's like no other course in the rotation and try to make enough putts to win. That's always what it comes down to for Phil and he has never putted very well on the slow Open greens. He'll stick around the leaderboard but won't win.

LeBron

2010-07-11T09:28:00.002-04:00

Six weeks ago I said I was 100% sure LeBron was going to join D-Wade in Miami. My reasoning is that LeBron knows he will never be the alpha on a Championship team because he doesn't have the heart or the guts to have the last shot in his hands when it matters most. He will be perfectly content to let Wade take all the big shots which really tells you everything you need to know about LeBron on the court.

As for off the court that mockery on Thursday night told you everything you need to know about LeBron off the court. The while things was orchestrated by him and was meant to feed his ego. He even paid Jim Gary to do the interview for Christ Sake! When the hour long "special" was announced I thought he might stay in Cleveland. I mean who goes on National TV to crush and humiliate his hometown fans and team who absolutely adore him? Well apparentyl LeBron does and that is why he went from hero to asshole for the hole country faster than Tiger did. I really don't have a problem with him going to Miami, I just loathe the way he went about it. He never had any intention on staying in Cleveland and strung them along until 9:28 pm EST Thursday night. Awful. Just Awful.

Here is an email I sent to Bill Simmons, The Sports Guy, at espn.com that made it into Friday's mail bag:

The first comparisons people were making last night were that LeBron will now be Magic to Wade's Kareem, or more accurately Pippen to Wade's Jordan. Sorry, but the real comparison here is A-Rod.

A-Rod is also the most physically gifted and talented guy in his sport. A-Rod also has the biggest ego in his sport. A-Rod also has no heart and no guts and typically gags in the playoffs. A-Rod blew off a smaller market team (Seattle) that adored him to play in Texas. A-Rod decided to go the Yankees to win rings knowing that they would always be Jeter's team. A-Rod won a World Series last year but nobody considers him a champion the same way they look at Jeter because he didn't help build the Yankees. How is any one of those things any different in any way shape or form than LeBron? The Heat will always be D-Wade's team regardless of how many titles LeBron wins there. Congratulations on your decision LeBron -- you have successfully downgraded your career arc to A-Rod. Unbelievable.

NBA Finals

2010-06-03T09:25:00.000-04:00

LA over Boston in 7.

I just can't see Kobe losing this series.

NHL Final

2010-05-30T09:37:00.000-04:00

Chicago over Philly in 6

NBA Conference Finals

2010-05-17T17:07:00.001-04:00

Orlando over Boston in 7
LA over Phoenix in 5

More tomorrow.

NHL Conference Finals

2010-05-17T17:06:00.000-04:00

Philly over the Habs in 6
Chicago over the Sharks in 7

The Cavs

2010-05-12T11:29:00.003-04:00

For the past four years I have refused to admit that LeBron James is the best player in basketball because I would not take him over Kobe or Dwayne Wade if I starter the 7 game Finals tomorrow. The reason for that is that I have never seen any evidence that he needs to win.

Last night's performance was just pathetic and unless his elbow is about to fall off there is no excuse for it. As for his smug "I spoil a lot of people with my play" comment, well I'll let Adrian Wojnarowski put the LeBron James experience in perspective far better than I could. And if you think this is a hatchet job it isn't.

LeBron, your entire NBA career will be summarized by how you perform the next few weeks. If you get you and your team together and make the Finals I'll be impressed. If you bow out in Boston in Game 6 then Bolt for Miami or the Knicks then you are just proving you don't really want it too much. Or worse, you win some titles with DWade and it is because of him and you are Pippen to his Jordan.

More NBA Round 2

2010-05-04T14:44:00.002-04:00

I was 7-1 in the first round and things are right on track for the 2nd round.

East

Cleveland vs. Boston

Have the Celtics been coasting for four months knowing they could turn it on in the playoffs? I highly doubt it because they have too much pride for that. Enough pride to keep this series competitive too. They don't have anyone too stop LeBron but the Cavs don't have anyone to stop Rajon Rondo and he can go crazy in this series. While Rondo is the key, the Celtics really need KG and Ray Allen to knock down shots. They will hit enough to win 2 games, maybe even 3, but not 4.

Cavs in 6

Orlando vs. Atlanta

I think the scar the Hawks had against the undermanned Bucks shook them up in a good way. I thknk they are awake now and being the underdog against the Magic will help. If Josh Smith and Joe Johnson can keep getting to the hoop and making Dwight Howard take cheap fouls this is a series. Defensively the Hawks have to contain Jameer Nelson and I don't think Mike Bibby can do that anymore. They have enough athletes to keep Vince Carter in check but Rashard Lewis might kill them. This should be a good series but ultimately Nelson is just too much for Bibby.

Magic in 6

West

LA Lakers vs. Utah Jazz

This is a maddening Laker team to watch. The problem with them is they only play their best when they have to. WHen they are up 2-0 in a series or up by 15 starting the 4th quarter they fall asleep and let the opponent make a game or series of it. The same thing will happen here. They should sweep the jazz, who are msising two starters, but won't. I expect Deron Williams to go just apeshit in this series with Derek Fisher on him until Kobe demands to guard him. Which is Utah's best chance. The best way to beat the lakers is to make Kobe work his ass off on D and hope Gasol does not have a big game. But as always Kobe is around to close so this series will never be in doubt. Although it will at times look like it is.

Lakers in 6

Phoenix Suns vs. San Antonio Spurs

This all hignes on Tim Duncan. Can he play the much younger but much less smarter Amare Stodamire for 7 games? I think he can. George Hill is playing extremely well and he can contain Steve Nash enough to make things uncomfortable for him. The Suns still don't play enough defense to stop the Hill/Parker/Ginobli troika and Duncan will use every angle and deke in the book to get Stodamire in foul trouble. This will be the best of the the 2nd round series by far and I see the Spurs once again wreching the Suns season.

Spurs in 7

NBA Quickie

2010-05-01T17:16:00.001-04:00

Cleveland over Boston in 6.

More tomorrow.

NHL Round 2

2010-04-29T08:50:00.001-04:00

4-4 in the 1st round.

East

Boston over Philly in 7
Pittsburgh over Montreal in 6

West

Detroit over San Jose in 6
Chicago over Vancouver in 6

Baseball Preview

2010-04-21T12:53:00.002-04:00

I know this is way late but I wanted to get it in. I will make it more detailed over the next week or so. As for my picks nothing in the first two weeks impacts my preview, which I actually sketched out in late march. And as the Jays painfully showed after a 24-12 start last year, your start really does not mean much in the end.

AL East

1. Tampa Bay Rays 97-65
2. Boston Red Sox 95-67
3. New York Yankees 94-66
4. Baltimore Orioles 74-88
5. Toronto Blue Jays 67-95

AL Central

1. Minnesota Twins 89-73
2. Detroit Tigers 81-81
3. Chicago White Sox 76-86
4. Cleveland Indians 72-90
5. Kansas City Royals 62-100

AL West

1. Seattle Mariners 92-70
2. Los Angeles Angels 86-75
3. Texas Rangers 83-79
4. Oakland A's 78-84

NL East

1. Philadelphia Phillies 102-60
2. Florida Marlins 84-78
3. Atlanta Braves 83-79
4. New York Mets 75-87
5. Washington Nationals 62-100

NL Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals 85-77
2. Cincinnati Reds 83-79
3. Chicago Cubs 78-84
4. Milwaukee Brewers 75-87
5. Houston Astros 68-92
6. Pittsburgh Pirates 59-103

NL West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers 91-71
2. Colorado Rockies 89-73
3. San Francisco Giants 88-74
4. Arizona Diamondbacks 76-86
5. San Diego Padres 61-101

AL Division Series
Tampa over Minnesota
Boston over Seattle

NL Division Series
Philly over Colorado
LA over St. Louis

ALCS
Boston over Tampa

NLCS
Philly over LA

World Series
Philly over Boston

AL MVP - Joe Mauer
NL MVP - ALbert Pujols

AL Cy Young - Felix Hernandez
NL Cy Young - Roy Halladay unanimously

NBA Playoffs

2010-04-17T15:38:00.002-04:00

This will be quick too. At least for the first round.

East

1. Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 8. Chicago Bulls

The Bulls should consider themselves lucky to be in the playoffs after Chris Bosh had his face broken. And they should enjoy it while they can because it ain't gonna last long. They have now chance to defend LeBron, Shaq, Jamison etc and no inside game at all. This will be a sweep and I think every game will be decided by the end of the 3rd quarter.

Cavs in 4

2. Orlando Magic vs. 7. Charlotte Bobcats

As much as I would love to see Larry Brown outcoaching Stan Van Gundy be the difference in this series it won't be. Dwight Howard will be because he is the best player on the court. Charlotte will make them work though.

Magic in 6

3. Atlanta Hawks vs. 6. Milwaukee Bucks

This would have been a hell of a lot more interesting if Andrew Bogut had not got hurt. Atlanta is a very good young team that defends well and attacks the basket. Without Bogut the young Bucks can't defend them.

Hawks in 5

4. Boston Celtics vs. 5. Miami Heat

This will be interesting. The Celtics are really just a .500 team over the last 4 months and look done. It's actually astonishing how bad they have been and how lethargic they have looked. This is their last real chance and even at that I think they are going to get destroyed by the Cavs in the 2nd round - if they make it that far. Dwayne Wade is the 3rd best player in the league and is fully capable of carrying the Heat to winning this series. I think their is enough Celtics pride left though to stop him when it counts.

Celtics in 7

West

1. Los Angeles Lakers vs. 8. Oklahoma City Thunder

The Lakers just don't look right right now but I foolishly believe they will correct things in the playoffs. They don't need to fix everything to beat the young Thunder though. As great as this team is going to be, the lakers are too much for them this year.

Lakers in 5

2. Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs are scary as hell on paper but not in reality. A lot of their vets have not played that well down the stretch and Richard Jefferson never fit in for some reason. The Mavs are also a lot tougher than previous years with the addition of Caron Butler. We'll see how much tougher later.

Mavs in 6

3. Phoenix Suns vs. 7. Portland Trail Blazers

This series would have been great if Brandon Roy was healthy for the Balzers. Without him Portland just does not have the end of game threat they need to bounce the Suns. And hats off to Steve Nash for having a hell of a year. He even coaxed Amare Stodamire into playing a little bit of defence.

Suns in 5

4. Utah Jazz vs. 5. Denver Nuggets

Both these teams looked like they were capable of pulling together a great playoff and getting to the Finals about 10 weeks ago. Then George Karl went into cancer treatment and the Nuggets lost a lot of energy having to watch their coach go through that and the Jazz lost Andrei Kirilenko and now neither team will get by round 2. Too bad. It would have been great to see one of them go against the lakers at full speed.

Jazz in 7.

I like the Lakers over the Mavs in the Western Final and the Cavs over the Magic (who will rue the day they signed Vince Carter) in the East. I still think the Lakers will knock off the Cavs in the Finals but don't hold me to it.

NHL Playoffs

2010-04-14T17:44:00.002-04:00

Quickly....

East

Washington over Montreal in 5
New Jersey over Philly in 6
Buffalo over Boston in 7
Pittsburgh over Ottawa in 5

West

San Jose over Colorado in 6
Chicago over Nashville in 6
LA over Vancouver in 7
Detroit over Phoenix in 6

I picked Pittsburgh over Detroit for the Cup to start the year but I will change it the Penguins over Chicago going into the playoffs.

The Masters

2010-04-07T18:45:00.002-04:00

This will be a very curious Masters. For obvious reasons. It will be interesting to see whether the commentators criticize Tiger or stick strictly to golf. I assume they will touch on his personal life only to the degree that they could be expected to, which is not too much and that is fine with me. This is after all a golf tournament not Entertainment Tonight.

As for the tournament itself I think the final pair on Sunday will be Phil and Paddy with Harrington winning it. I think Tiger can maybe sneak into the top 10 with a good Sunday and other guys sliding back but that's it.

Side note - That knew Nike commercial with Earl Woods talking to Tiger and asking him what he has learned is an absolute joke.

Baseball Preview to Come...

2010-04-01T15:27:00.002-04:00

I will have a detailed MLB Preview at some point next week. In the meantime I will make two predictions. First, Phillies over Red Sox in the World Series. Second, Roy Halladay wins the NL Cy Young unanimously. He goes from winning 16-18 a year for an at best average Jays team in the AL East with the Yanks, Red Six and Rays to a stacked Phils team in a division with the Mets, Braves, nationals and Marlins and no DH. He will win 25 games this year.

March Madness!

2010-03-18T10:39:00.002-04:00

Today begins the best even in sports, with the next four days being the best of it. I am planting my ass in my basement and not coming out until Sunday night.

My Final Four: Kansas (over Georgetown in the Midwest Regional), Kansas St. (over Syracuse in the West), West Virginia (over Kentucky in the East) and Duke (over Baylor in the South). Kansas will beat West Virginia in the Final.

There is no great team this year but only one of the teams mentioned above, and Ohio St., can win it this year. Kentucky is probably the most talented team but they are not that mature. I don't mean that they are too young, I mean that I don't think they will handle a great defense and close game that W. Virginia will throw at them. Kentucky hasn't played a team like the Mountaineers all year and it will show.

Now time to deal with the notion that Duke got a 1 seed to boost ratings and and Kansas got screwed by being put in the bracket off death.

First Duke. To suggest a conspiracy is completely absurd. There is not much difference anymore between being a 1 or 2 with regards to how easy it is to get to the Final Four. And of the 4 1 seeds Duke has the toughest potential 2nd round game against Louisville. Louisville is inconsistent but very talented and beat Syracuse twice. If they are at their best they will beat Duke by 10 and Duke won't even get out of the first weekend.

Now Kansas. Yes there are a lot of good teams in the Midwest but Tennessee (who is overrated despite beating Kansas and Kentucky and might not beat SD St.), Georgetown and Ohio St. are all in the bottom half of that bracket, which means they only have to play one of them (and West Virginia is the best 2 seed so Kentucky has the toughest potential Regional Final). And Michigan St./Maryland might be a second round matchup, which means the Jayhawks only have to play one of them.

If you have not filled out your brackets yet go with the chalk. I really don't see a lot of upsets this year. My only Sweet Sixteen sleeper is Siena and I had to convince myself of that.

Best of luck to everyone in their pool!

I Was Wrong.

2010-03-16T11:25:00.001-04:00

Tiger will make his return at The Masters. He will not win that tournament. No way, no how.

Tiger's Return.

2010-03-12T11:00:00.004-05:00

There has been a lot of speculation the past week about whether Tiger is going to tee it up for the first time at Bay Hill, The Masters, or sometime after The Masters.

I previously stated I thought he would be back at Bay Hill and I still do. Here is a list of reasons each makes sense, as well as why they don't.

Why He Will Play Bay Hill First

1. He has a great relationship with Arnie and Arnie showing him support at his tournament would be good step to helping repair Tiger's reputation (to the degree that it can be restored anyway).

2. He has won this tournament six times before and each of the past two with birdie puts on the last hole. Tiger has good karma here and God knows he needs that. I don't think he can win his first time out, but if he can, this is the only place other than Torrey Pines where he could.

3. This goes along with point 2. Winning is the only thing Tiger can do to get his life back to some degree of normalcy. Winning Majors even more so. If he doesn't win here he will at least have a tournament under his belt heading to Augusta.

4. He needs to get his first tournament over with. While the fogies who run Augusta can provide more protection for him it will still be a huge distraction. Playing Bay Hill gets a lot of questions out of the way so he can start to move on.

Why He Will Not Play Bay Hill First

1. What if Arnie isn't exactly glowing in his support of Tiger? That ain't good. I don't think he wants a father figure type talking about how great Tiger is but what he did was really stupid.

2. There is less certainty about how the gallery will react at this tournament than Augusta. My guess is the heckling here will be far worse than it ever could be at Augusta.

Why He Will Play The Masters First

1. It's his favorite tournament. It's the one he wants to win more than any other every year.

2. As mentioned above it will be the most controlled environment for him. He can get the fogies to shut out media that pisses him off and the gallery is ridiculously polite. It's worth mentioning that the gallery is usually full of high-powered executive types, 80% of whom screw their secretaries, so they will think what Tiger did was really no big deal and will leave him alone.

3. His ego is still huge and my guess is he will still have a flair for the dramatic and the ability rise to the occasion. And I think he has a stubborn "Fuck all of you" streak in him that will be even bigger now. What better way to stick it to everyone, other players included, than winning his first tournament back at The Masters?

Why He Will Not Play The Masters First

1. He is all about winning Majors and this year is his best ever chance at the Grand Slam. The US and British Opens are at Pebble beach and St. Andrew's, courses he owns. While only Tiger could win The Masters on his first tournament back, I doubt he will. Why take the risk of not winning when this is the best chance he will ever have at the Grand Slam? This is the biggest reason he chooses Bay Hill.

Why He Will Play After The Masters First

1. He is just not ready to go yet. If it is not the Masters all bets are off as to where he will tee it up. It's also a sign that he really is broken by this whole mess.

Why He Will Not Play After The Master First

1. As pointed out above, the only way to get back to any semblance of normalcy is to get back on the course.

To me it has to be Bay Hill. All Tiger has wanted to do, and been programmed to do, since he was three years old is to win golf tournaments and get to 19+ Major championships. His whole life has been built on success on the course (everything that has gone wrong is entirely off the course) and that is exactly where he belongs and it has to be the most comfortable place in his life. The sooner he is out and winning again, especially a year where the Grand Slam is its most likeliest, the sooner he will start getting media to focus on golf, start getting endorsements back, and stop having people laugh when they hear his name.

Oscar Night .

2010-03-07T17:49:00.004-05:00

I have not seen every movie that was nominated this year but does that matter? Hardly. It's always about knowing what the Academy looks for rather than wat they saw.

Best Picture

Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

I like that they expanded this category to 10 because it gives a movie like Up a nomination it may not otherwise have received. Which is great because Up and An Education were the two best movies I saw this year.

Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Look Out For: Up in the Air

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Basterds

Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow
Look Out For: James Cameron

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Will Win: Jeff Bridges
Look Out For: Colin Firth

Best Actress

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Will Win: Sandra Bullock
Look Out For: Carey Mulligan. At least I hope. She was just incredible in this role.

Best Supporting Actress

Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrcik, Up in the Air
Mo'Nique, Precious

Will Win: Mo'Nique
Look Out For: Maggie Gyllenhaal

Best Supporting Actor

Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christopher Waltz, Inglorious Basterds

Will Win: Christopher Waltz
Look Out For: Woody Harrelson

Best Original Screenplay

Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Basterds
Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman, The Messenger
Joel Cohen & Ethan Cohen, A Serious Man
Bob Peterson & Pete Docter & Thomas McCarthy, Up

Will Win: Mark Boal
Look Out For: Quentin Tarantino

Best Adapted Screenplay

Neill Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell, District 9
Nick Hornby, An Education
Jesse Armstrong & Simon Blackwell & Armando Iannucci & Tony Roche, In the Loop
Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious
Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air

Will Win: Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner
Look Out For: Nick Hornby

Vancouver 2010. We Did It!

2010-03-01T10:31:00.003-05:00

I have never been prouder to be Canadian.

It is not just about setting a record with 14 Gold Medals that allowed us to truly Own The Podium. Or the 7 Silver and 5 Bronze that gave us a third place total of 26 medals. It is also about how Canadians across the country embraced these games and the pride we showed in our country. We were not embarrassed to strive for Gold or to display the pride we feel for Canada. I truly feel like the country has changed and that we can not only feel proud, but also feel proud about feeling proud.

It was an incredible 17 days and I speak for most Canadians when I say that I hate like hell that it is over.

Tiger Again.

2010-02-22T15:44:00.002-05:00

I really like Bill Simmon's column on espn.com. He does have a lot of flaws as a writer but what makes him great is that he never just goes with the flow and usually gives you fresh persepectives on things.

He also tends to sum up things similar to how I would except he has time to make his columns 7000 words. So you can imagine how glad I was to see that he has not followed the hordes who thought Tiger was so honest and open on Friday. It was great reading his column that ripped that "press conference" apart.

Tiger With His Tail Between His Legs.

2010-02-19T11:54:00.003-05:00

Seriously? This is what you give us Tiger?

I don't know whether to be impressed by his stubborn refusal to tackle the press or to think he is a complete idiot who really hasn't learned anything. How do you have a press conference that does not include answering any questions from the press?

Tiger can really do whatever the hell he wants but if he expects to start winning sponsors back surely to God he can do better than this contrived joke.

And for the record I agree with Ernie Els, This was awful and selfish timing by Woods. This absolutely could have waited until Monday.

The 2010 Winter Olympics.

2010-02-11T15:55:00.002-05:00

Let's start by saying how awesome it is for the rest of the world to see what a great city Vancouver is and how beautiful the Whistler area is. And it will also be absolutely criminal if anybody but Terry Fox's mother does not light the Olympic Flame. I love Wayne Gretzky as much as the next guy but this is a total no-brainer.

What I know about Skeleton and Luge could fit in a thimble so you are not getting a preview. Here are some predictions though:

Men's Hockey

Gold - Canada The pressure of home ice may hurt amateurs but not pros like Crosby and Iginla

Silver - US Ryan Miller is awesome right now and will carry them.

Bronze - Sweden Very talented and will beat the Russians who can never play as a team.

Canada will beat the US for Gold in Women's hockey.

Canada will have a top three finish in the overall medal count.

The Who at Halftime.

2010-02-10T09:43:00.002-05:00

While I love The Who and thought they were great at half time of the Super Bowl, would it be too cynical of me to think that they were contractually obligated to sing the three songs that happen to be the opening credit music for the the three CBS CSI shows? I pointed it out while it was happening and everyone I was with agreed with me.

Super Bowl Recap

2010-02-09T13:06:00.003-05:00

I am completely bagged after getting at most 16 hours total combined sleep Thursday night through Sunday night and a jet lagged sleep last night while getting back from Vegas (look for the recap of the whole trip later this week when I have some energy) so this will be disjointed. I will now attempt to recap my thoughts on the Super Bowl that revolved around one question - How in the Fuck did the Colts blow that thing after being an unbeatable juggernaut all year?

1. Looking back on it everyone I was with knew the Colts were in deep shit when the Saints recovered the on-side kick, but in hindsight they were screwed when Garcon dropped the 3rd and 4 pass in the 2nd quarter. At the time T-Bone said "that's the TSN turning point right there". He was 100% right (it is also worth noting that he was the only one of us who had money on the Saints so he must know what he's talking about). I think the Colts would have kept moving down the field, using clock and scored another TD or at least FG. If nothing else they would have pinned the Saints within their own 15 on a punt. Instead they punted, the Saints drove down, got stuffed on fourth and goal but pinned the Colts who went three and out, then punted to the Saints who had enough time to score a FG. All because Garcon dropped the goddamn ball.

2. The Colts play calling when they were pinned at the end of the first half was atrocious. just over a minute left and a couple of timeouts? That is enough for Peyton Manning to at least get you a field goal attempt. How do you call a half assed up the middle run play on 3rd and 1 when you can run 2 yard quick slant passes any time you like? It was ridiculous. And Manning deserves most of the blame on that. He audibles on 50% of the plays and should have here. He knew damn well a slant would have worked but he didn't do it. Manning's legacy started to take a hit on that play (more on that later).

3. The on-side kick was brilliant. Down 10-6 the Saints had to be thinking the Colts are going to get the ball and go up 17-6, we'd better try to stop that. The fact that it worked just made the call even better. And you knew damn well they were going to score.

4. The Colts special teams were terrible. How do you take a kick-ff for yards into your own end zone and not take a knee against the lightning fast Saints? You deserve to only get to your own 11 when you do something that stupid.

5. Peyton looked completely confused the entire second half and you knew things weren't right when he got the game clock wrong and couldn't get a play off to end the 3rd quarter. At this point there were signs of the pre-2007 Manning. But I still believed so I didn't recognize it.

6. Before he threw the pick, Manning nearly got picked off on an awful pass to Reggie Wayne near the sideline a few plays before. That throw was actually worse than the one that did get picked off.

7. When the Colts got the ball 24-17 and over 5 left on the clock I said to Diamond Joe "Here's where Manning proves he is in the top 2 or 3 ever". I was 100% certain they were getting into the endzone on a TD pass, win the coin flip and win it on a Dallas Clark TD reception (that chain of events would have won me my game bet and prop bet that Manning would throw over 2.5 TDs by the way). Then he nearly threw a terrible pick, then did throw a terrible pick. He looked rattled and had those happy feet again and it was ugly to watch. He had a chance to put himself on the Mt. Rushmore of QBs and blew it. I am still completely stunned. Joe Montana would have got in the end zone 100 times out of 100. Tom Brady would of 95/100 and not thrown a pick (which is why he still has to rank slightly ahead of Manning). Brett Favre would have thrown that pick 95/100 and that's why I think he is in the second tier of greatest QBs. And now Manning has thrown that pick. As great as he has been this year, the closer he has become, the chance to win his 2nd Super Bowl, that's why I wanted the Colts to win on Sunday. Manning is now 9-9 in the playoffs. Elway had a losing record in Super Bowls (2-3) but winning 2 gets him in my top 3. I think Manning will get there (they have to be the favorite next year with Saunders back and healthy in the secondary) because he still has at least 5 years of prime left. But is was his for the taking Sunday and he couldn't get it done. And I still can't believe it.

All that said I can't be the least bit upset watching the city of New Orleans get to celebrate a Super Bowl. Or knowing that a guy as special as Drew Brees lead them to it. He has done so much for that city and it has given him so much in return it is remarkable. I think now that Kurt Warner has retired Brees can pretty confidently carry the torch as Greatest Big Name Guy in the league.

Super Bowl

2010-02-04T10:39:00.002-05:00

I need to get this in quick since I am off to Vegas tonight for another epic weekend with Diamond Joe, TBone and a few others.

Indy Colts -3.5 over New Orleans Saints.

The great thing about this game is I reallly don't care who wins, I just want a great game. The Colts are a great team on the top of their game so I always like teams like that winning but how can you cheer against the Saints and the city of New Orleans. My money will be on the Colts but even if I lose it won't bug me that much.

The key for the Saints in this one is going to be forcing turnovers again the way they did against the Vikes. I don't see it. Peyton may throw one pick early while he is figuring out all the blitzes that the Saints will throw at him, but once he does NO won't stop him. I look for Dallas Clark to have a huge him and score two touchdowns.

On the other side of the ball I am not that worried about Dwight Freeney's injury. He won't be 100% but will be good enough to get some pressure on Drew Brees. The ankle injury he has is the type that hurts between plays but not during the play. Once he gets blood rushing to it he will be fine. He will need surgery on Monday, but will be fine Sunday. I think the Colts can slow down the Saints enough to win this one in a shootout.

Colts 31 Saints 27

Kurt Warner

2010-01-28T11:10:00.002-05:00

Kurt Warner is holding a press conference tomorrow and I assume it is to retire. And I actually hope it is for him to retire.

I have absolutely loved watching this guy perform for the last decade but with all the concussions he has had it is the right time to walk away. There is no sense coming back again next year and risking some permanent damage to himself. And I think he is one of the few guys out there smart enough to realize it.

I don't think there is any questions that Warner is a Hall of Famer, not with the numbers he put up in St. Louis, including a Super Bowl win and another appearance, and with the Cards ,which included taking the worst franchise in the league to the Super Bowl (that in itself is H of F worthy). Above all else this guy has been an incredible story. He came out of the Arena League and worked his ass off every day. He is a great family man who has never had any kind of trouble off the field. He was always a fantastic teammate in a league full of bad ones and nobody in the NFL has ever had anything bad to say about him. And above all else he never developed the ego or God complex that other high-profile QBs developed. He was a class act and the NFL will miss him a lot.

Seriously? Again?

2010-01-26T09:26:00.003-05:00

Dear Brett,

Can you please just tell everyone you are coming back to play next year and not put everyone through this shit again?

I realize you are a diva with a Grand Canyon size ego who consistently needs the spotlight on you, but many thousands of people who used to really like you are tired of you and now can't stand you (I myself am in this category). The last thing I need to see on Super Bowl Sunday is your media lackey Peter King leading his segment with a story on you. It is really not fair to the Saints or Colts, or the fans of those two teams for that matter.

As much as I would love to see the final throw of your career be yet another team killing interception you tried to force because you always have to be the hero, I have full confidence you will come back next year and kill your team in the exact same fashion. I'm even looking forward to you showing once again why you are not in the same Best Ever class as Elway, Manning, Brady and Montana. So just admit you are coming back and make everyone happy.

Thank You for your time.

NFL Conference Title Games

2010-01-24T11:48:00.002-05:00

Another 2-2 last week and I should have known better. The Cowboys and Chargers each returned to their badly coached choking ways and I should have seen that coming. Oh well.

I have to say that I am absolutely pulling for a Colts-Saints Super Bowl. That is the most interesting match up to me and since I am going to be in Vegas with Diamond Joe and TBone to watch it it would be even more awesome. How could anyone not be rooting for the Saints to get there? Will all they have been through since Katrina no team in pro sports is more important to the identity of the city. And with the Colts you have Peyton Manning looking for title number 2, which to me puts him ahead of Tom Brady in the Which One Is Better Argument.

AFC

New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts

Two things to keep in mind. First the Jets backed into the playoffs when the Colts and Bengals rolled over in weeks 16 and 17. They then beat a deer in the playoff headlights Bengals and a perennial choker in the Chargers. Second the Jets are built on running the ball and defense, just like the Ravens who the Colts beat with ease last week. I'm sorry to all you Jets fans but this one won't be close. Each time the Colts had the ball in the first match up they did whatever they wanted and I don't see that changing. Manning is the best in the league in picking up blitzes and throws the ball so quickly that he rarely gets sacked. He also has too many receivers for the Jets to stop. Revis may shut down Reggie Wayne but that means Clark and Garcon have huge days. And on the other side of the ball the Colts defense is lightning fast and will get to Mark Sanchez. The Jets will have to force at least 4 turnovers to win and I don't see any way that happens. And you know the Colts want to bury them after the Week 16 mess.

Colts 31 Jets 10

NFC

Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints

Brett Favre has had a fantastic year. As much as I hate him I can't argue otherwise. But Drew Brees has been better and will be today. The Vikes have been a bad road team this year and playing in the SuperDome is going to be really hard on their defense. I thing they are going to get a couple offside penalties early and then have a hard time getting off the ball due to the crowd noise. I don't see them getting a lot of pressure on Brees and him having a huge day. I also think Reggie Bush, the Saints X Factor, is going to be huge again. Bush is a big game player since his days at USC and is one of those guys who needs the spotlight. Well he has got it here. As for Favre I think he has a really bad game, the type I have predicted would kill the Vikes all year. The Saints have a fast, opportunistic, ball hawking D that is going to force Favre into those panicked INTs he always throws into double and triple coverage. And with the saints scoring early and often the Vikes will have to rely on him because they won't be able to run all day with Adrian Peterson. If this game were in Minny I might like the Vikes, but I have been saying all year the home field advantage is just to too much to overcome in the Big Easy.

Saints 35 Vikes 17

Tiger

2010-01-16T10:47:00.003-05:00

I wanted to talk about Tiger this week but I have been in Toronto for a funeral and haven't had time. I will touch on this this week. But I will say this, he will be back in time for Bay Hill if not earlier. The only thing Tiger has ever wanted to really do is win golf tournaments. Fixing his marriage would be stupid for him because he clearly never wanted to be married. The best thing for him to do is get back on the course and start winning again, which he will do about eight times this year including at least two majors.

More NFL Playoffs

2010-01-16T10:29:00.002-05:00

I was 2-2 last week and greatly enjoyed watching the Pats get their asses handed to them by the Ravens. I like Brady but hate the rest of the team, especially their head coach.

NFC

Arizona Cardinals +7 at New Orleans Saints.

I emailed Diamond Joe earlier this week to say that the over/under on this game should be about 90 and I meant it. There will be absolutely no defense in this game. Or running game for that matter the way Warner and Brees are playing. It's really tempting to take the Cards but I have said all year I thought the Saints were going to the Super Bowl because the Superdome is going to be so tough to play in on the rad in the playoffs. I think the Saints get a couple more turnovers than the Cards and that's the difference.

Saints 49 Cards 41

Dallas Cowboys +2.5 at Minnesota Vikings

As much as I enjoyed watching the Pats get waxed last week I am going to enjoy watching Brett Favre have a terrible game and get waxed against Dallas. Which is saying something given how much I hate the Cowboys. The Vikes haven't beaten a good team in about 2 months (the Packers were playing piss poor the last time they played) and the Dallas D is relentless right now. The Vikes D can slow down Romo but not that much. I expect this to be a blowout and Favre to thrown at least three picks.

Dallas 31 Minnesota 13

AFC

Baltimore Ravens +6.5 at Indianapolis Colts

The Ravens are scary because of their running game and their defense but the problem is they are going to have to put the ball in Joe Flacco's hands and have him make plays in this game. The Colts are going to put up points because as good as the Ravens D is, the Colts offense is better and the Ravens are going to have to play from behind. And I don't think the Colts taking weeks 16 and 17 off will affect them to much. They may be sluggish for the first 7 or 8 minutes but it really won't matter in the end.

Indy 31 Baltimore 17

New York Jets +7 at San Diego Chargers

The only team that can beat the Colts is the Chargers. Will they get the chance? Given their propensity to blow big playoff games the past few years it is easy to think they may lose to the Jets. But I just don't see it. The Chargers are just flying right now and I don't see how Mark Sanchez can have do enough to win this game. The Jets are going to have to put some points on the board and that means Sanchez has to throw more than the 15 times he did against Cincy and that will be trouble, even against the Chargers terrible secondary. As much as I would like to see the Jets win and see them get destroyed in areal rematch against Indy it won't happen.

Chargers 24 Jets 10

Pete Carroll and the USC Shuffle

2010-01-13T12:38:00.002-05:00

It's hard not to be jaded when you see the Seattle Seahawks fire a perfectly good coach in Jim Mora to bring in Pete Carroll for two reasons.

The first reason is about Carroll's decision. He is clearly fleeing USC because they are about to get slammed for NCAA violations related to recruiting and improper benefits under his watch. Why else would he leave? He basically runs a pro team at USC already and can recruit Top 10 talent wihtout having to travel more than 10 miles in any direction of campus. It has to be pending punishment so in that sense I perfectly understand him leaving.

The second reason is about Seattle's decision. Do they not realize this guy is a lousy coach? He underperformed with good talent in New England and with the Jets and was an awful game coach at USC. He was a great college coach because he could recruit and put absolutely loaded teams on the field. But he was an awful play caller who should have been in the BCS title game every other year. Instead USC always lost games they shouldn't have and then won big games when the BSC title game was out of reach. He won't last three years on a Seattle team that is clearly rebuilding.

And as for USC brining in Lane Kiffin? I'll leave it to Pat Forde who expresses my thoughts perfectly. Has a guy ever been given more hype and money for doing so little as a head football coach? Not to mention what a complete dick he seems to be?

McGwire Comes Clean.

2010-01-11T16:23:00.003-05:00

No pun intended on that headline either. So Mark McGwire has finally admitted to using steroids for years. After the humiliation he suffered after wussing out in front of congress this hardly even qualifies as a story, which is why my commentary here is brief.

Now that he is the hitting coach for the Cardinals he had to do this now or else it would have been hanging over the team from the 1st day of spring training. So in that sense he is only admitting it because the cards probably told him too. Either way this should be out of the news in about three days.

NFL Wild Card Weekend

2010-01-09T09:16:00.005-05:00

Well after a less than stellar 6-9-1 last week left me at a less than stellar 122-129-5 for the year we march onwards towards the playoffs. And if I nail all 11 I end up over .500 for the year. So that's just what I'll do.

AFC

(5) New York Jets +2.5 at (4) Cincinnati Bengals

I don't like either of these teams. The Bengals can't score enough to play from behind but luckily for them the Jets can't score at all. You can right off the Jets hot finish because they played bad Bills and Bucs teams then had wins over the Colts and Bengals when both teams quit. So how does this one go? I see the Bengals defense making Mark Sanchez beat them and wrecking his confidence early. The Jets will run effectively but once they fall behind, which they will, Sanchez will throw some soul crushing INTs. Either way I see the winner of this game losing by 20 next week.

Bengals 17 Jets 9

(6) Baltimore Ravens +3 at (3) New England Patriots

The one thing Ton Brady can do is lead his team. With Wes Welker out I have no doubt he can convince Randy Moss to bust his ass in this one and be the difference maker. But making that happen is something else. The Ravens are the big enigma in this playoffs. To start the year they looked like the best team in the AFC and then they lost at NE due to a dropped pass late. You know their defense is tough and can dominate this game. They will frustrate Brady because they are the one team that can get to him and knock him around consistently. And the Pats, who have been smoke and mirrors all season due to their bad D, are in deep shit without Welker. It comes down to the Ravens offense. Can they catch the ball and put up points? I say they can and will hand the Pats their first home loss this season.

Ravens 24 Patriots 17

NFC

(5) Green Bay Packers +1 at (4) Arizona cardinals

I said last week that I could see either of these teams making the Super Bowl or losing by 3o this week and I still stand by it. The interesting thing here is that the Packs away record is better than the card home record so home field doesn't mean much. If the Cards hadn't made the Super Bowl last year I would give them no chance but they did so they no how to win in the playoffs. I also think Kurt Warner is scary as hell in a tight game. As much as I would love to see Green Bay go into Minnesota and knock off the Vikings I don't think they will get the chance.

Cards 31 Pack 28

(6) Philadelphia Eagles +4 at (3) Dallas Cowboys

As putrid as the Eagles looked last week I don't think that matters that much. They fell behind early and decided to stop throwing down field and I don't see that happening again. The Eagles are also 7-0 in their first playoff games with Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid. The Cowboys on the other hand are hopeless in the playoffs and I am still not sold on the Tony Romo/Wade Phillips combo. As good as the Cowboys defense is playing I just think a couple of turnovers will give the Eagles great field position and that will be the difference.

Eagles 27 Cowboys 17

Andrew Dawson - Hall of Famer

2010-01-07T14:19:00.003-05:00

My long nightmare is finally over as Andre Dawson was finally elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame yesterday. I have said it before and I will say it again, this guy was the ultimate five tool player. If he hadn't played his early career on the concrete mess that was Olympic Stadium his knees would not have been destroyed by the time he made it out of Montreal and he would have put up first ballot numbers. I'm glad that his career is being looked at differently now in light of all the artificial numbers that have been put up over the past 20 years due to steroids because there was absolutely nothing he couldn't do on a baseball field. It's a shame the rest of North America never got to see him in his prime.

And it looks as though Robbie Alomar got close enough that he will get in next year. I say he should have been a first ballot guy and is without question the best and most complete player to ever wear a Blue Jay uniform. He could beat you in about 100 different ways.

New Year's Resolution

2010-01-06T10:55:00.002-05:00

My New Year's Resolution was to get back to updating this blog regularly. For the past 12-18 months I have been spotty at best but that will change. I have pledged to start getting more out of my personal life this year and this site is a big part of that. I plan to get back to regular sports posts but also getting back into movie reviews, TV conversations, Pursuit of Leisure Hotties and other things as I think of them.

Stay tuned and keep checking back. I promise an increased presence this year.

MLB Hall of Fame

2010-01-06T10:54:00.003-05:00

Here's hoping Andre Dawson finally gets voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame today. He sure as hell deserves to be and I really don't want to have to go on my annual rant about why he should of been voted in but wasn't.

NFL Week 17

2010-01-03T10:52:00.002-05:00

Last week wasn't a total write off so I still have an outside shot at finishing over .500 which was the goal at the start of the year. And I promise next year to start paying attention to weather reports, injury list updates and other crap like that.

Either way it is only five weeks until the Super Bowl and Diamond Joe are headed down to Vegas for our second annual trip. And this time with an expanded crew including the likes of TBone.

Last Week: 7-8-1
Season: 116-120-4

Colts -5 over BILLS I am livid the way the Colts gave that game away last week. All they had to do was give Peyton one more possession and they would have put it away. The Jets hadn't touched him all game and there was no way he was going to get hurt. Seriously stupid of them. Especially in front of the home crowd. I have no idea who is playing for them today but is againt Buffalo so who cares.

Saints -5 over PANTHERS Saints need to get their act together this week heading into the playoffs

Jags +3 over BROWNS Unless theere is a -50 wind chill and blizzard I am not aware of how the hell are the Browns the favorite in this one?

Eagles +3 over COWBOYS Last year the Eagles blew out Dallas in a similar last season pressure game. ANd they will again this year.

Bears -3 over LIONS 12-3 so far this year picking against the Lions. And I predicted 12-4 pre-season.

Patriots +7 over TEXANS I assume Tom Brady will play until this one is over.

Steelers -3 over DOLPHINS Pittsburgh is the one team nobody wants to face in the playoffs. Provided they get in of course. Which they won't when the Bengals don't play anyone against the Jets tonight.

Giants +9 over VIKINGS Hey Minnesota fans, are you ready for your first round loss with 3 Favre INTs yet?

JETS -8.5 over Bengals Jets make the playoffs because the game doesn't matter to Cincy.

49ers -7 over RAMS Rams will clinch first overall pick so that's something for them to strive for.

Falcons -1 over BUCS One of those meaningless games that is tought to pick on week 17.

CARDS -3 over Packers I could see either one of these streaky teams getting hot and making the Super Bowl and either one of these teams losing by 30 in the Wild Card round. Seriously.

BRONCOS -12 over Chiefs The Broncos can end the season with a moral victory. Not that means anything in the National Football League (channeling my inner Ron Jaworski).

Raiders +10 over RAVENS I think this one will be pretty close. Oakland has actually been somewhat respectable at times this year.

CHARGERS -4 over Redskins This SD team is so hot right now I am not even sure Norv Turner can screw up a Super Bowl apperance.

Titans -5 over SEAHAWKS Chris Johnson should have no problem getting to 2,000 yards for the year against Seattle.

NFL Week 16

2009-12-25T14:02:00.002-05:00

A rough one last week has me back below .500 and determined to finish the season over .500.

Last Week: 4-9-3
Season: 109-112-3

Chargers +3 over TITANS I'd love to know how the chargers became the underdog in this one. The Titans are hot but the Chargers are the hottest team in the league right now. They have been winning easily each week.

FALCONS -9 over Bills This season can't end fast enough for Bills fans. Probably Atlanta fans to after the high expectations to start the year.

BENGALS -13.5 over Chiefs The Bengals are going to get bounced in the 1st round of the playoffs because they can't play from behind but they won't really have to worry about that against KC.

Raiders +3 over BROWNS Both these teams have some signs of life but the Raiders more so.

PACKERS -14 over Seahawks GB has to keep winning to make the playoffs.

DOLPHINS -3 over Texans This is going to be a blowout either way, I just figure it will be for Miami.

GIANTS -7 over Panthers The Giants look like the are displaying their early season form when they were great. So does Carolina but they were awful.

PATRIOTS -7.5 over Jags The Patriots suddenly have no passing game, still have no defense and look like a first round blowout waiting to happen. But the Jags still have the implodable David Garrard at QB. Was there any doubt he was going to throw a pick to finish the Colts game last week?

SAINTS -14 over Bucs I never buy that any loss is a good loss but the Saints should kill the Bucs this week after their first loss last week.

STEELERS -3 over Ravens Pittsburgh has sucked me back in. Please don't ask me how stupid I feel about that.

CARDINALS -14 over Rams After looking awful for two weeks the Cards bounce back big.

NINERS -12 over Lions Only 2 weeks left to bet against Detroit. I'm going to miss them.

EAGLES -7 over Broncos I can't believe my Broncos fell off the map this year after starting 6-0. I can believe Philly is surging into the playoffs again. They do it every year.

COLTS -6 over Jets I expect Peyton to put 28 on the board in the first half than sit the second. The Colts need to keep playing for 16-0 because in the years they rested guys they failed to make it to the Super Bowl.

REDSKINS +6.5 over Cowboys This will be close. The 'Skins always play Dallas close at home.

Bears +7 VIKINGS Childress and Favre fighting? Favre looking bad so far in December? Who could have predicted that?

NFL Week 15

2009-12-19T13:51:00.002-05:00

I had a strong 11-5 last week to get me back over .500 for the season. That's the good part. The bad part is that this time of year there are a lot of meaningless games that are always a bitch to pick.

Last Week: 11-5
Season: 105-103

SAINTS -7 over Cowboys The Saints are going 16-0. I know they have won a lot of tight games lately but this game reminds me of the Pats Monday nighter. It's a statement game against a team headed down not up and the crowd in the Superdome will be going absolutely bonkers. I think this is at least a 14 point win.

STEELERS -1 over Packers I was hot on the Pack to start the year and the burned me and then I was cold on them and they burned me. I still don't know if they are that good or that they played a bad schedule. As for Pittsburgh, I mean they have to win eventually. Don't they?

TITANS -3 over Dolphins I have been sweating this one all week and just decided 30 seconds ago to take Tennessee. Whatever Vince Young has going on right now is working and I like them on home turf.

Patriots -7 over BILLS Potential shitty weather in Buffalo doesn't hurt NE because they are going to run all day anyway. They also have to keep winning to keep the Jets and Miami off their heels.

Cards -11 over LIONS I expect a big day from Kurt Warner after Monday nights debacle.

49ers +9 over EAGLES I don't think SF is as bad as their record indicates because they have lost some tight games to good teams. I expect another tight loss here.

JETS -4 over Falcons I don't trust the Falcons in a cold weather environment with the Jets fighting for their playoff lives.

RAVENS -10 over Bears Chicago has rolled over and died the past few weeks and I expect Jay Cutler to throw at least three picks in this one.

CHIEFS -1 over Browns Unless you live in either city or are related to any of the players why in hell would you even consider flipping on this game?

Texans -10 over RAMS I stupidly picked the Rams last week and won't make that mistake again. Especially after an outbreak of swine flu hit them this week.

CHARGERS -7 over Bengals If anyone in the AFC is going to beat Indy it's the Chargers. They have owned them the past few years. As for this game I just think it's alot to ask the Bengals to win given there second tragedy of the season. It's such a shame. Chris Henry really seemed to be maturing and turning his life around.

Raiders +12.5 over BRONCOS Denver will win but Oakland always plays them pretty tough.

SEHAWKS -7 Bucs Another meaningless hard to pick game. That said the Bucs are truly hopeless.

Vikings -7 over PANTHERS Carolina is just a mess offensviely and the Vikes D should just eat them up.

Giants -3 over REDSKINS This should actually be a good game. The Skins are actually much improved the past few weeks and will be pumped with some new blood in the GM office and Mike Shanahan waiting in the wings. I just think the Giants are a bit better.

NFL Thursday Nighter

2009-12-17T14:48:00.002-05:00

Colts -3 over JAGS The Colts are going 16-0. They will play everyone the full game tonight to try to bury a division opponent and also because it is too early to start resting guys. Then all they have left is the Jets at home and the Bills.

NFL Week 14

2009-12-12T16:47:00.002-05:00

I am feeling like this week will be a breakout week and will get me back to .500. Even after the Steelers pathetic showing Thursday night.

One quick note. There is a lot of debate over whether Brett Favre or Drew Brees should be the league MVP. The simple answer is neither. How can anybody in their right mind not say Peyton Manning is the MVP. Favre has a strong pass rushing defense behind him as well as the best running back in football. Brees, who I would vote second, has speed everyhwere and a D that makes big stops when required. Manning is 12-0 with a below average defense, no running game and also breaking in new receivers. If any other QB is on the Colts this year they are at best 8-4. With Peyton leading them to come from behind win after come from behind win they are 12-0. And ask yourself this - Would Bill Belichick have gone for it on fourth down on his side of the field against Favre or Brees? Hell no.

Last Week: 7-9
Season: 94-98

COLTS -7.5 over Broncos I just don't fell good about this one at all for the Broncos. Not with the Colts being able to lock up home field with a win.

VIKINGS -6.5 over Bengals The Bengals have a real problem moving the ball and really have no big play guys. That is going to kill them in the playoffs because they can't play from behind. As you will find out this week.

Bills +1 over CHIEFS The Bills are at that stage in the season where they will start winning just enough to get a middle 1st round pick and piss off their fans.

Jets -3 over BUCS I'm tempted to pick Tampa but they are just too awful.

Packers -3 over BEARS I'm dying to see the Pack in Minny in the playoffs.

Saints -10 over FALCONS No Matt Ryan = No Chance for Atlanta.

RAVENS -13 over LIONS I want to pick the Lions but I can't. I'm 10-2 betting agaisnt them so I have to stick with it.

Dolphins +2 over JAGUARS I am utterly confounded by both these teams. For some reason I just think the Dolphins will be able to run like crazy in this one.

Panther +13 over PATRIOTS Crappy weather in Boston tomorrow so I don't see the Pats running away. Then again they beat the Titans 59-0 in the snow so what the fuck do I know.

TEXANS -6 over Seahawks This has more to do with the Seattle than it does Houston (see Bills, Buffalo above).

Rams +14 over TITANS With Vince Young questionable the Rams might keep it close.

RAIDERS PK over Redskins The Raiders have been sneaky decent at home and the Skins have been a sneaky cover underdog all year. Tough call.

Chargers +3 over COWBOYS The Chargers have won 15 straight in December and the Cowboys suck in December. Let the Wade Phillips firing countdown begin.

Eagles +1 over GIANTS I thin the Eagles know they can win the division and will come out big in this one.

Cards -3 over 49ERS 'Zona played with swagger on Sunday night and I think they will crush San Fran.

Thursday Nighter

2009-12-10T14:38:00.001-05:00

Steelers -10 over BROWNS I know Pittsburgh is reeling but I think the Browns have just quit on Mangini. Pittsburgh will score a touchdown early and Cleveland will roll over.

NFL Week 13

2009-12-05T17:59:00.002-05:00

On my way out the door so this is quick...

Last Week: 9-7
Season: 87-89

Broncos -4 over CHIEFS Kyle Orton isn't sexy, but he is effective.

STEELERS -14 over Raiders If these were a 4:00pm start I may have thought otherwise.

Texans PK over JAGS Two underachievers so I flipped a coin.

COLTS -7.5 over Titans I think the Titans can win this game but the Colts should want to burry any playoff hopes of a division rival.

FALCONS +6 over Eagles The Falcons have been screwing me all year so why not just stick with that?

BENGALS -13 over Lions Cincy couldn't kill the Browns but they can kill the Lions.

Saints -9 over REDSKINS Washington has been decent of late but I think the Saints are starting to smell 16-0.

PANTHERS -6.5 over Bucs I just can't pick the Bucs as much as I want to.

BEARS -9 over Rams This is the type of game Jay Cutler should be great in. A meaningless one against a shit team.

BROWNS +12.5 over Chargers Browns at home should only lose by 10.

49ers +1 over SEAHAWKS The crappiest game of the week.

CARDS +4 over Vikings I just think the Vikes are do to lose one and the Cards at home should do it.

GIANTS +1 over Cowboys Wade hilips and Tony Romo are 3-6 together in December and January. Prove to me you can win and then I will think about picking you Mr. Romo.

Patriots -5 over DOLPHINS For some reason I think this will be a route.

Ravens +3 over PACKERS I really don't think the Pack is that good and the Ravens D might just kill Aaron Rodgers.

NFL Thursday Nighter

2009-12-03T15:59:00.000-05:00

Jets -3 over BILLS in Toronto. Any home field Buffalo has is negated in the Skydome.

NFL Week 12

2009-11-29T10:30:00.003-05:00

I'm already 2-1 this week so I am confident I can get over .500 again after a few dismal weeks.

Last Week: 8-8
Season: 78-82

Colts -3.5 over TEXANS Gotta ride the Colts until they show otherwise.

BENGALS -14 over Browns I think this will be a thorough shit-kicking. After the Benglas brutal loss to the Raiders last week they will be fired up.

VIKINGS -10.5 over Bears Thisi is a huge rivalry game so I am tempted to go with the Bears but Jay Cutler looks completely lost right now. The Vikes defense will eat him alive.

EAGLES -9 over Redskins The Eagles have to get rolling if they have any shot at the playoffs

Dolphins -3 over BILLS I just can't pick the Bills and the Dolphins are rolling right now.

Cards +1.5 over TITANS Not so much a pick against the Titans as it is a pick for the Cards who have been great on the road.

Seahawks -2.5 over RAMS The NFC West - Where Meaningless Week 12 Games Happen!

Bucs +11.5 over FALCONS I can't figure Atlanta out at all. I think they will win but it will be close.

JETS -3 over Panthers The Jets have to get it together at least one week don't they?

Jaguars +3 over 49ERS The Jags are very quietly in wild card contention. And the 49ers stink.

CHARGERS -13.5 over Chiefs Expect a letdown for the Chiefs after last week's big win over the Steelers

Steelers +1 over RAVENS The two teams I thought may be playing in the AFC Championship game face loser go home in week 12. Not what I was expecting at the start of the year.

SAINTS -3 over Patriots The Superdome crowd should be going absolutely mental for this Monday nighter. The Saints D is better than the Pats D, which is weak in the secondary. I look for at least 300 yards and 3 TDS from Drew Brees.

Turkey Day Football

2009-11-26T08:42:00.001-05:00

Quickly:

Packers -11.5 over LIONS The Pack suck but I can't pick the Lions

Raiders +13.5 over COWBOYS Too many points to give on Turkey Day.

BRONCOS +7 over Giants The Broncos have to win eventually and the Giants are still not on solid ground.

NFL Week 11

2009-11-22T10:49:00.002-05:00

A bad week last week has me needing a good week this week to get to .500. I am 1-0 after taking the Dolphins on Thursday. I know it wasn't on the blog but trust me I did. Once again we have another week of huge spreads. 8 gmaes of 9+ points.

Last week: 6-9
Season: 70-74

Browns +3.5 over LIONS I would take the Lions if not for the fact that I decided in week 1 to bet against them every game. Then the one week I broke that rule they lost to the Rams. And who exactly will watch this game?

Bills +9 over JAGUARS The Bills are due to come close and then lose on a stupid play that kills their fans again.

CHIEFS +10 over Steelers The Steelers have been having a tought time covering on the road this year. They will win but only by a TD.

Colts -1 over RAVENS The Colts may lose this one but I can't bet against them until they lose outright.

GIANTS -6 over Falcons Neither team is playing well but the Giants over at home.

PACKERS -5.5 over 49ers These were two of the more promising teams in the league this year and they both fell fast. I think the 49ers are done for the year.

Seahawks +11 over VIKINGS Can't take 11 with the Vikes after they didn't destroy the Lions at home last week.

COWBOYS -12 over Redskins The 'Boys will lput up a big win after the mess they laid down in Lambaugh last week.

Saints -11.5 over BUCS The Saints defense should get back on track against the horrible Bucs offense.

Cards -9 over RAMS The Cards have been great on the road this year.

Jets +10.5 over PATRIOTS The Patriots should kill the Jets this week after losing to Indy the way they did but the Jets will be fired up to prove their first win against the Pats wasn't a fluke.

Bengals -9.5 over RAIDERS I am sold on the Bengals enough to bet on them on the west coast. Of course they are playing the Raiders.

BRONCOS +3 over Chargers I know Chris Simms is the likely starter for Denver but this is the type of game the Chargers always seem to lose.

Eagles -2 over BEARS Is either one of these teams any good? I honestly don't know at this point.

TEXANS -4 over Titans The Titans win streak stops here against a tought divisional opponent on the road.

NFL Week 10

2009-11-14T15:26:00.002-05:00

With another bad week last week I have fallen under .500 for the first time this year. And I am already 0-1 this week after Jay Cutler's 5 INT stink bomb Thursday night, which as a Broncos fan I enjoyed immensely.

Last Week: 5-8
Season 64-65

JETS -6.5 over Jags I'm not sure how good the Jets are or how bad the Jags are. I just now the Jets have to win this game to hold on to any playoff hopes.

Broncos -3.5 over REDSKINS Yes the Broncos have lost their last two but how in the hell do you explain a 6-2 team being only a 3.5 point favorite to the 'Skins?

STEELERS -7 over Bengals My nervous pick of the week. I am sold on the Bengals but I think the Steelers have rounded back into division winner form.

TITANS -6.5 over Bills This is more about how bad I think the Bills are than Vince Young being 2-0.

VIKINGS -15.5 over Lions Minny coming off a bye week and the Lions are still the Lions. The line on this could have been 20.

SAINTS -14 over Rams 14 is a lot to give on the road but not with how bad the Rams offense is. The Saints can probably cover with 21 points.

Falcons -1.5 over PANTHERS The Falcons have only lost to decent teams this year so I think they are better than there 5-3 indicates.

Bucs +10 over DOLPHINS I think the Dolphins are going to win but I think the Bucs can keep it close. They should be a lot more confident after winning last week.

Chiefs +1.5 over RAIDERS How bad will the ratings be for this game? Will anybody outside of Oakland or KC watch this game? Will anybody in Oakland or Kansas City watch this game?

CARDS -9 over Seahwaks The Cards have sucked me in again. Man I hate picking on Cards games. I never now whether they will show up or not. Especially at home.

Eagles +2.5 over CHARGERS Philly coming off a big loss and the Chargers coming off a big win. Andy Reid vs. Norv Turner in the Who Finally Gets Fired First Bowl.

Cowboys -2.5 over PACKERS It's time for me to admit that the Packers are just lousy. They haven't beaten a good team in the past two years.

COLTS -3 over Pats This should be another great game in what is easily the best rivalry in the NFL. Neither team's secondary is strong right now so it should be pretty high scoring. Indy can't run but it may not matter. And I can't go against Peyton in a primetime game.

Ravens -10.5 over BROWNS Enjoy your Monday night Cleveland. It will be the last time you are on MNF for about 5 years.

NBA Preview. Yes It's Too Late. No I Don't Care.

2009-11-12T18:26:00.004-05:00

I was planning to do a really good preview but it's do late in the season to do that so I will do a smaller one than I would have liked. I'm pretty pissed off at myself because the NBA is actually my favorite all around regular season now.

I will however, be posting regularly about the league now that the World Series is over and I watch more games.

Since I haven't watched much I haven't changed my order of finish at all since the season began. And I am do this ignoring any current injuries and basing it on opening day rosters.

Eastern Conference

1. Boston Celtics

They are old but they are fully healthy and they now this is likely their last real run. I expect Kevin Garnett to have a monster season and Glen Davis to continue to blossom.

2. Orlando Magic

It's no secret that I hate Vince Carter more than any other active athlete and this season will prove why. The guy is lazy and never wanted the pressure of being The Man on a great team, so I fully expect him to have a great year being the number 3 guy, maybe even number 4, on this team. Dwight Howard will only get better as will Jameer Nelson.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers

I hated the Shaq trade for a couple reasons. First, Shaq has never taken a second fiddle and he has to here for them to win it all. Last year in Phoenix he had good numbers because he made himself the main option and that is not happening with LeBron around. Second, Dwight Howard killed the Cavs int he playoffs last year with his quickness and athleticism, two things Shaq doesn't have anymore. Because it will take this team a while to gel they will not get home court in the second round and will face the Magic again. And get bounced by them again.

4. Atlanta Hawks

There is not much not to like here. Mike Bibby is still solid at the point and they improved their depth up front with Joe Smith and Jason Collins. And Marvin Williams should improve a lot.

5. Miami Heat

Dwayne Wade busts his ass every night so his impending free agency is not going to make him work any harder. It's the rest of the team I think will get better. Now that Michael Beasley has taken control of his problems I expect him to have amonster coming out party. They even have pretty good scoring coming off the bench with Quentin Richardson.

6. Toronto Raptors

Andrea Bargnani very quietly put up very good numbers as a starter last year. And Hedo Turkoglu only helps spread the floor for him. Add in the always solid Jose Calderon and Chris Bosh in a free agent year and the Raps are back in the playoffs.

7. Chicago Bulls

Don't let last year's incredible series with the Celtics fool you - This team is not that good. They were able to take advantage of an injured Garnett to keep it close. They have a bad frontcourt of Ty Thomas and Joakim Noah and lost their top scorer. Derrick Rose is phenomenal but he can only take them so far. I'll be shocked if they win more than 44 games.

8. Washington Wizards

On paper this is a great team but they never add up to the sum of their parts. As much as I like Gilbert Arenas he has never shown the ability to make his team better. They still have the most underrated player in the league in Caron Butler as well as Antawn Jamison. And I liked the addition of Mike Miller. They just to prove to me they can be great.

9. Detroit Pistons

I'm not a Ben Gordon fan because he always wants the ball and takes a lot of bad shots. I don't see how he is going to play along Rip Hamilton. I also don't think Charlie Villenueva is the answer at power forward. I love Tayshaun Prince and wouldn't be surprised if he was dangled near the trade deadline.

10. Charlotte Bobcats

I think this team will surprise people. Tyson Chandler should thirve under Larry Brown and could lead the league in blocks. Boris Diaw is a soid go to guy and Gerald Wallace is tough to defend. And you know they will bust their ass on the defensive end.

11. Philadelphia 76ers

Elton Brand is healthy but it really doesn't matter because there is not much else there. Andre Igoudala is the type of guy who puts up 18 a game only because he is on a bad team. He is a bench player on a playoff team. The bench isn't oo pretty either.

12. Milwaukee Bucks

Despite giving away Richard Jefferson they will not be completely awful. Andrew Bogut is a serviceable center and Micheal Redd can still score. Hakim Warrick and Luc Mbah A Moute are stong defenders but what I really think will help is the arrival of Brandon Jennings. Playing against men in Europe last year should really help him this year.

13. Indiana Pacers

Here is another team with decent players that don't add up to much. TJ Ford takes too many bad shots, Roy Hibbert is a statue in the paint and Troy Murphy can't do it by himself in the paint. I expect Tyler Hansbrough to be a fan favorite but I don't expect him to be very good.

14. New York Knicks

It has going to be a hell of a long season at The Garden. All they have to hope for all year is that LeBron decides to come to NY in the off-season. As much as I like David Lee, if he is your best player you are in trouble.

15. New Jersey Nets

This roster looks like an expansion team. Aside from Devin Harris they don't have any great players. Brook Lopez is good and Courtney Lee should put up better numbers in a bigger role than he had in Orlando but it won't be near enough.

Western Conference

1. LA Lakers

I don't see any real drop off for this team at all. Kobe is not the type of guy who lets winning satisfy him for too long. He wants more rings than Jordan and he is driven enough to do it. The addition of Ron Artest does not make them that much better though. He is slightly better than Trevor Ariza at this point because he has slipped defensively. There is a chance that he will flourish and get a lot better under Phil Jackson and playing with Kobe. Phil worked wonders with Rodman and I thin khe can with Artest too, at least for a year.

2. San Antonio Spurs

The biggest winner of the off-season. Just when you though they might be getting too old to really compete for a title they steal Richard Jefferson, add a proven team guy and banger Antonio McDyess and and absolutely steal DeJuan Blair in the second round of the draft. Jefferson and a healthy Manu Ginobli allow Tony Parker to run when he can in the open court and they will still be strong in the half court with Tim Duncan. With Duncan anchoring the defense again and Jefferson defending the wings this these guys are neck and neck with the Lakers again.

3. Denver Nuggets

A lot of people are predicting a fall for these guys because they didn't do much in the off-season. I think part of the reason for that is because they realize they were pretty damn good last year. Carmelo is only going to get better after maturing a lot last year and Chauncey Billups has a full year to lead this team. Throw in an improved JR Smith, steady paly from Kenyon martin and Nene and the energy of Chris Anderson and Ty Lawson and they will be back on top of the division again.

4. Portland Trail Blazers

I love this team and I still think they are going to win about 4 titles sooner than later. That just won't start this year. Adding Andre Miller was curious because he slows things down in order to be effective but late in games the ball will be in Brandon Roy's hands so it won't matter that much. LaMarcus Aldridge broke out last year and I expect him to get even better this year and so will Travis Outlaw. The real question is Greg Oden. I know he can be a defensive player of the year but I am starting to wonder about his offense. He doesn't show much feel around the basket and doesn't pass that well for a guy with his good hands. If he can develop offensively than watch out.

5. Utah Jazz

Another team that didn't change much with pretty good reason. There starting 5 is great with Deron Williams anchoring the backcourt and Carlos Boozer back up front. What they lack is a lot of depth and that's where they get hurt in the playoffs. Late in games they just won't be able to match up with the Lakers or Spurs.

6. Phoenix Suns

Call this addition by subtraction but they will be much improved without Shaq who was the focal point of the offense last year and shouldn't have been. As long as Steve Nash is at the point this team needs to run. Although Amare Stoudemire is nowehre near the player everyone thought he would become he is still damn good and perfect for Nash. Throw in smart veternas like Grant Hill and Jason Richardson and this team should be fun to watch again.

7. Dalls Mavericks

I don't see this team winning 50 games again. Despite being a bad team player I think bringing in Shawn Marion was a smart move. He is still one of the 3 or 4 best defensive players in the league and he can cover a lot of Jason Kidd's defensive deficiencies against the fast guards out west. Josh Howard is also a good defender but I think he lacks enough maturity to be a star. The Diggler and Jason Terry should be their usual strong selves but it's going to be a furst round and out season for them again.

8. Houston Rockets

I don't see impending doom for this team because they work their asses off every night and the bottom of the west is really bad this year. I think Aaron Brooks is going to have a breakout season and Trevor Ariza will put up decent numbers. I actually think Ariza is in for a tough season in the sense that everyone thnks he is better than he is. They assume that he was the number 4 guy on the Lakers last year and he will be an 18/6/4 guy now that he is starting and he just isn't that good. What he can do very well though is defend. And it's defense that will keep the Rockets in the playoffs.

9. New Orleans Hornets

I really don't like much about this team. Chris Paul is a great point guard but he seemed just miserable last season and I don't see that improving. Their frontcourt is bad and I am not a big Emeka Okafor fan. I don't think he can average 10 rebounds a night in the west or block as many shots. I also think this team has too thin a bench to make the playoffs.

10. Oklahoma City Thunder

These guys are going to be very competitive this year. Kevin Durant still doesn't have the body strength to post guys up but he figured out last year that he can just shoot over guys gaurding him and that won't change. I love Russell Westbrook. He's competitive as hell and really knows the game. Jeff Green is very strong up front as well. I don't know what to make of rookie James Harden though. Last year at Arizona St. he wouldn't take the big shots with the game on the line and looked to dish too often so I really question whether he wants to be a go to guy. At least with Durant around he won't have to be, which could be perfect for him.

11. Los Angeles Clippers

There is actually a lot of talent on this team with Baron Davis healthy, future all-star Eric Gordon, and Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman up front. Blake Griffin is going to be an all-star too. He is really strong and works his butt off to get better. The problem with this team is coaching and the fact that, well, they are the Clippers. Something is bound to go wrong at some oint.

12. Golden State Warriors

This is a team with playoff talent but they are a bunch of idiots. They can't play as a team and don't even care on the defensive end. Stephen Jackson should be shipped out immediately. Corey Maggette is just as selfish but they can't trade him because his contract is so big. This is not an environment for a potential star like Stephen Curry to walk into but he is stuck with it.

13. Memphis Grizzlies

What they hell they were thinking signing Allen Iverson is beyond me. He is a terrible team player, will not come off the bench and will be a terrible influence on guys like OJ Mayo and Zazk Randolph who are already bad team guys. Poor Rudy Gay. He has talent and heart and he has to play with morons. He would be great on a good team.

14. Minnesota Timberwolves

This is a team with a strong frontcourt in Al Jefferson and the underrated Kein Love. I also think Jonny Fylnn will be a good point guard eventually. They just don't have enough talent around them to compete night in and night out. And don't get me started on how stupid it was for them to draft Ricky Rubio.

15. Sacramento Kings

I don't think the Kings can win 15 games. Aside from Kevin Martin their is very little talent and even he would be a number three players on a top five team. They have a lot of guys who are perfectly good 7th or 8th men like Desmond Mason but they are starting.

Conference Finals
Boston over Orlando
LA Lakers over San Antonio

Finals
Lakers over Boston

Quick Week 10 Pick

2009-11-12T15:36:00.001-05:00

One game goes tonight.

Bears +3.5 over 49ERS I thought the 49ers would be good after the first few weeks but they are not. The Bears are not any good either but they should win in San Fran.

NFL Week 9

2009-11-07T14:13:00.003-05:00

Last week I said I was due to be below .500 for the first time and Jesus was I right. After an absolutely woeful 2-11 (I kid have asked a two year old to throw food at the lines in the paper and the kid would have done better) I am officially worked up for this week's picks and will come out jacked for the first quarter. Or something stupid like that.

Last Week: 2-11
Season: 59-57

JAGUARS -6.5 over Chiefs We are at that point in the season where matchups occur between two teams that know they are going nowhere. Those games are a bitch to pick. This is one of those games.

Ravens -3 over BENGALS I am half sold on the Bengals but I just think this will be a shit kicking. No way the Ravens lose twice to Cincy.

COLTS -9 over Texans I think Indy had a bit of a wake up call last week in struggling against the 49ers. 9 is a lot to give but they are at home so I'll give them.

FALCONS -10 over Redskins The Falcons can't catch the Saints to win the division but they can still grab the wildcard. Beating the Redskins this week is a good way to help that out.

Packers -10 over BUCS Aaron Rodgers is starting to get a rep as a guy who can only put up big games against bad competition. The Bucs certainly fit that bill.

Cards +3 over BEARS These two teams are the most baffling in the league. They have been killing me all year. I'll go with the Cards because they lost last week and against the Bears because they won big.

Dolphins +10.5 over PATRIOTS This Pats team is not the juggernaut of years past. I am still not convinced their D is any good and can stop the wildcat.

SAINTS -14 over Panthers The way the Saints are putting up points I am sticking with them until they lose. Especially against Jake Delhomme.

SEAHAWKS -10 over Lions I went against my pre-season logic of betting against the Lions every week and they lost to the hapless Rams. So screw you Lions, I am against you for the rest of the season. Even when you are getting 10 points to a bad team.

49ERS -5 over Titans Vince Young on the road against a tough young team that can still win it's division.

Chargers +3.5 over GIANTS I'm just surprised as you are that I am picking the Chargers. I think there is more to Eli Manning's foot injury then is being let on and the Giants were just horrible last week. The last three weeks actually.

EAGLES -3 Cowboys Exactly the type of game Donovan McNabb has won his whole career. And Tony Romo has lost.

BRONCOS +3 over Steelers It's ridiculous that the Broncos are the underdog at home in this game. Last week they lost to a desperate Ravens team. They will get back on track this week.

NFL Week 8

2009-10-31T12:03:00.003-04:00

We're getting to that point in the season when you know who the good teams are and who the bad teams are. And there are a hell of a lot of bad teams as has been pointed here a lot recently. So bad that again there are 6 games this week with a spread of 9 or higher. I'm guessing Vegas is going to have start making the lines on Raiders/Skins/Rams/Browns games about 19 points just to get any money going on the underdog.

Good week last week and I have yet to have a below .500 week. Sooner or later that is going to catch up to me. I'd bet on sooner.

Last Week: 8-5
Season: 57-46

RAVENS -4 over Broncos I think the Broncos have replaced the Ravens as the best defensive team in the league but the 3-3 Ravens have to win this game and should be really frantic hawking Kyle Orton.

Browns +13.5 over BEARS You sucked me in Vegas. Now don't let me down you horseshit Browns.

Texans -3.5 over BILLS Houston is a pretty good 4-3 while the Bills are a really bad 3-4.

PACKERS -3 over Vikings I expect the Cheeseheads to cheer for Brett Favre as he takes the field for the first time and then to boo him mercilessly the rest of the game. And that's how it should be. The Packers will rally around Aaron Rodgers and win this one.

COLTS -11 over 49ers I'm not sure the 49ers are as bad as the 11 points suggest but I also don't think they have a prayer against the Colts.

JETS -4 over Dolphins Rex Ryan might be an ass but he is not an ass who is going to let the Wildcat beat him again.

LIONS -5.5 over Rams This is how bloody awful the Rams are - I am going against my logic of picking against the Lions every week this year. I am starting to think the Rams might go 0-16, even in the pathetic NFC West. In other news this game may be blacked out in Detroit which is a shame. The city could use a win on TV.

Seahawks +9.5 over COWBOYS Big win last week for the 'Boys so I expect a letdown.

CHARGERS -16.5 over Raiders You couldn't suck me into this one Vegas. The Raiders are still horrendous and this is the type of game the Chargers win. They keep close enough to the playoffs to truly piss off their fans with some awful late season losses.

Jaguars +3 over TITANS Can someone please explain to me how a 3-3 team, even a bad 3-3 team, can be a 3 point 'dog to a terrible 0-6 team? An 0-6 team starting Vince Young for the first time this year? I know it's a division game but that is not worth 5 points.

CARDS -9 over Panthers I think it's fair to say I have been sucked in by the Cards again. I have no doubt they will let me down soon.

Giants +2 over EAGLES My nervous pick of the week. I just don't see the Giants losing three in a row.

SAINTS -9 over Falcons The Saints are going to get slowed down soon but it won't be by the Falcons in the Superdome.

Quick World Series Game 2 Points.

2009-10-31T11:42:00.005-04:00

1. First base umpire Brian Gorman made two mistakes but only one of them was what I would consider bad. The out call of Utley on the double play was the bad call. Utley was clearly safe on the play while it happened, I didn't need instant replay to tell me. The other call was the double play that Ryan Howard trapped. Gorman made the incorrect call but I wouldn't call it "bad" because as it was happening I think most people thought he caught it. It took a very slow motion replay to prove that the ball short hopped Howard, and even at that it was a very short short hop.

2. Despite Tim McCarver's (and subsequently other people) whining about Charlie Manuel not starting the runners in the eight (3-2 count, 1 out, runners on 1st and 2nd) he made the right call not to start them. For starters Utley only ground into five double plays all year. You also ran the risk of him lining into a double play and leaving Ryan Howard in the on-deck circle to end the inning. If Manuel had started the runners there would have been runners on 2nd and 3rd with first base open and then Mo Rivera gives Howard nothing to hit. In other words his best chance to have his top RBI guy up with pitches to hit was to not start the runners.

The fact Howard did end up on the on-deck circle because Utley did hit into a double play doesn't make Manuel's decision a bad one.

3. I can't stand Tim McCarver. His jokes are awful but his game analysis is what really bugs me. His point about Manuel starting the runners was just the latest stupid thing he has said.

It reminds me of what Bob Gibson once said to him when McCarver went to the mound to talk to him about a hitter, and I am paraphrasing a bit here, "You don't know anything about pitching and you can't hit so get back behind the plate and Shut Up".

NBA Preview.

2009-10-28T16:52:00.002-04:00

I will do my full NBA preview this weekend but I just wanted to say Lakers over Celtics in the Finals now. Yesterday morning actually but I just go to it now.

World Series Preview

2009-10-28T15:24:00.004-04:00

I got both the LCS' wrong so this has not been a banner postseason so far. Let's hope I get the World Series right because I am not even sure I'll be watching much of it. As much as I think these two teams are evenly matched and were the best teams in their respective leagues all year, I think the October 28 start date is going to create some horrendous weather conditions and some potentially bad baseball (the reason I may not watch much). Not to mention that with potential rain/snow outs this thing may not end until Christmas.

Yankees vs. Phillies

Both teams have been blessed with playing teams to this point that have played poorly against them. Each of these teams has kicked the ball around too, but not a ridiculous amount. This should be a great series because these two teams are so evenly matched. Despite more big names in the Yankees dugout I think the Phils actually have the deeper batting order 1-9 (1-8 in the NL park). ARod is clearly the best hitter in the series but Ryan Howard is not far off. Rollins and Utley are every bit as good as Jeter and Cano and Jayson Werth is better than Nick Swisher. Posada's bat has slowed a lot but his counterpart Carlos Ruiz can't hit a lick unless he is ahead in the count and is looking, and getting, fastball. I think Johnny Damon will have trouble with the good lefties as will Matsui and Texeira. I don't think Raul Ibanez will have as much trouble with the Yankees pitching.

The rotations are close but again I give the edge to the Phils. Cliff Lee and CC are a coin flip (how would you like to be an Indians fan watching Game 1 tonight). I also think Cole Hamels will be great in this series and be a coin flip with Andy Petite. The big difference will be Pedro vs. AJ. Pedro is built for this stage and you know he wants nothing more than to shove it up the Yankees ass in Game 2, which I think he will. With one game being postponed a strong possibility I can see both teams going with a 3 man rotation.

The bullpens are where the big difference is though. The Phils middle relief has been bad and there best hope is JA Happ being lights out against the Yanks lefty bats. The Yanks middle relief hasn't been any good either so they are going to struggle to get key outs too. The real difference between the 'pens, and the thing that will eventually decide this series, in the closers. I am still not 100% confident in Brad Lidge. I think he is going to cost them a game in this series and that will be the difference.

Yanks in 7.

Things to watch for:

- ARod will continue to be great and will win the Series MVP.

- Ryan Howard to hit absolute bombs in Yankee Stadium. With that jet stream in right field he might kill someone in the upper deck.

- Howard to hit Rivera well. Howard's bat is the quickest in the NL and he can get around on Mo's cutter. It won't get in on his hands the way it well on Utley.

- The weather to make a couple of games unwatchable. Balls are going to be thrown all over the place and a lot of double plays will not be turned as a result. And the hitters hands are going to hurt like hell, especially with Pedro running the ball in on guys. Cold weather always favors the pitchers over the hitters.

NFL Week 7

2009-10-22T16:02:00.002-04:00

I watched the first three quarters of the Pats destroying the Titans last week and I can honestly say the Titans first half was the worst performance I have ever seen by an NFL team. I new that game would be a blowout but I didn't expect the Titans to roll over and die. Afwul. Just Awful.

I was 7-7 again last week, which makes it .500 4 weeks out of 6. With 13 games this week it is unlikely to happen again.

Last Week: 7-7
Season: 49-41

Chargers -4.5 over CHIEFS Big win for the Chiefs last week so there may be a let down. And the Chargers always win against the dreck of the league. It's the good teams they can't beat.

Colts -13 over RAMS Tempting to take the Rams at home but the way Manning is playing and coming off a bye you gotta take the Colts.

Bears +1.5 over BENGALS Still not sold on the Bengals and the Bears should be up again this week after being down last week.

Packers -7 over BROWNS I expect Rodgers to have another big game this week.

STEELERS -4 over Vikings The Ravens exposed the Vikes defense last week. It really hasn't been great all year and they got away with it against a mostly bad schedule. I think the Steelers will winthis one by 10 or more.

Bucs +14 over Patriots This game is in England so there is no home field advantage. Hard to give 14 points in that situation even thought the Bucs are winless.

49ers +3.5 over TEXANS The 49ers were dismanteld a couple of weeks ago so they should be fired up for this coming off the bye.

Jets -7 over RAIDERS The Raiders upset the Eagles last week but I don't think it's a trend. Not with Jets needing to halt a 3 game skid.

PANTHERS PK over Bills Home field wins it. And this promises to be a horrible game.

Saints -6.5 over DOLPHINS The Saints have their mojo goin' right now and there is no way the Dolphins can stop their offense.

Falcons +4 over COWBOYS I'll take Matt Ryan over Tony Romo 9 times out of 10.

GIANTS -7 over Cards The Cards have a habit of getting waxed every time they go west to lay a good team. This week will be no different with the Giants coming off a bad loss in New Orleans.

Eagles -7 over REDSKINS I figured the Eagles would blow out the Raiders last week but they didn't. I figure they should kill the 'Skins Monday night too so we'll see.

NFL Week 6

2009-10-17T15:13:00.002-04:00

A couple of days ago I mentioned how I actually like the fact that there are very good and very bad teams in the NFL. How many bad teams are there? Six weeks into the season there are five double-digit spreads and a 9.5 that should be 14.

To paraphrase a line from the NBA...The NFL. It's Craptastic!

I had another .500 week last week (3 in 5 weeks) so that likely means I am due for a 2-12 this week. And once again, anyone wagering actually money based on my picks deserves to lose it.

Last Week: 7-7
Season: 42-34

Chiefs +6.5 over REDSKINS This is how friggin' bad the 'Skins are - They play their 6th straight winless opponent (granted the Giants were 0-0 week 1) and I am picking them to lose outright at home. To the Chiefs!

Texans +6.5 over BENGALS This has more to do with the fact that I can't wrap my head around the Bengals being any good as it does that the up and down Texans lost last week.

STEELERS -13.5 over Browns Congratulations Cleveland! You won last week. You can now go back to getting waxed every week.

VIKINGS -3 over Ravens This is my nervous pick of the week. Usually I wouldn't pick the Ravens to lose three in a row but the Vikes are on a serious roll right now.

JAGUARS -10 over Rams The Rams are a 10 point 'dog to a 2-3 team. And I still can't pick them. This team may go down as worse than last years Lions. The Jags can probably score 14 points and cover this spread.

Giants +3 over SAINTS I am completely sold that the Saints defense is much better than last year but it still isn't great. The Giants also realize this game may very well determine home field in the playoffs.

BUCS +3 over Panthers Tampa will win eventually so it might as well be this week against the awful Panthers.

PACKERS -13.5 over Lions I am 3-2 betting against the Lions and I am pretty certain it will go to 4-2 this week with the Packers coming off a bye week at Lambeau.

Eagles -14 over RAIDERS The spread really could have been 20 here and I still would have taken Philly.

Cards +3 over SEAHAWKS Seattle is banged up and the Cards suckered me into thinking they turned a corner last week.

JETS -10 over Bills If the Bills replaced the real Dick Jauron on the sidelines with a cardboard cutout of Dick Jauron would anyone notice? It's not like it would affect the outcome of the game or anything.

PATRIOTS -9.5 over Titans Holy sweet mother of Jesus does this have blowout written all over it. The Titans head to Foxboro with a pass defense that is dead last in the league. If Tom Brady doesn't go off this week than he is officially never recovering from knee surgery. And Randy Moss might not even be able to sleep tonight from excitement.

FALCONS -3.5 over Bears I still think the Falcons can get to the Super Bowl. And I still think the Bears can't.

Broncos +3.5 over CHARGERS I can't believe the Broncos are the 'dog in this game. After beating the Pats last week everybody knows they are good. And how the hell can you pick Norv Turner in a Monday nighter he has to win? The Broncos will seal up the division title Monday night. And they will do it easily.

NLCS and ALCS

2009-10-15T18:49:00.002-04:00

Very quickly before the first pitch is thrown tonight with explanations later:

Dodgers in 6
Angels in 7

Considering my World Series pick didn't win a game I can't say going 2-2 in the first round was even average.

NLCS
Phillies vs. Dodgers

The funny thing about this series is that if Brad Lidge was even average this season nobody woudl be taking the Dodgers. The Phillies have a better lineup, beteer defense and deeper starting pitching. But Lidge isn't right, no matter how he looked against the Rockies, and the Phils bullpen is not great.

The best two pitchers in this series are Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee and there is no question about that. But the Dodgers are throwing Clayton Kershaw against Hamels and he is so good that I think they almost cancel each other out. Anyone who thinks Randy Wolf is a front-line starter is crazy and I am not convinced Vincent Padilla can equal the game he threw against the Cards, though he may not have to in order to win.

So why am I picking the Dodgers? There lineup is better than it was last year and can score runs without Manny needing to go deep. I also think Pedro Martinez might get lit up in his start(s) because he can't attack guys the way he used to. But the main reason is the Dodgers bullpen is the best of any team left and the Phillies is the worst. All of these games should be tight and that favors the Dodgers.

Dodgers in 6

ALCS
Yankees vs. Angels

This should be a hell of a series. The thing that very few people realize about the Angels is just how deep and balnace their batting lineup is. They remind me a lot of the '04 Red Sox team but without as much power in the middle of the lineup. They are just a bunch of smart, professional hitters who now how to work the count and get their pitch. And guys like Hunter, Abreu and Vlady will go deep if you make a mistake. They also run the bases extremley well and are very aggressive. They should run all day on Jorge Posada. The Yankees lineup has more power than the Angels but I am not convinced it is that much better overall.

As I mentioned last week the Angels Achilles Heel vs the Red Sox every year was their lack of a true ace. But having 3 #2 starters matters less in a 7 game series than a 5 gamer. I think CC will win a two games for the Yanks but I think the Angels patience will drive Burnett nuts, and Pettite will be forced to throw more pitches than usual to get out of innings. As for the Angels pitching I like Jered Weaver a lot and he is strong mentally. And Scott Kazmir has always pitched well against the Yankees so I expect a strong game 4 start at home from him.

The Angels bullpen is a bit deeper but Brain Fuentes is not Mo Rivera so the Angels may lose one late.

One other big reason I like the Angels is because Mike Scioscia is a much better game manager than Joe Girardi. That means the Angels will usually get the late inning matchups they want.

Angels in 7

Odds and Ends.

2009-10-14T09:20:00.005-04:00

- There is a lot of talk about using more instant replay in baseball and I disagree with it. It makes sense for the home run calls to be determined that way because it has the biggest impact in terms of runs scored but also because it doesn't affect the rest of the play, if it is a home run everyone scores, end of story.

On a fair/foul call it directly affects what would have happened on the rest of the play. If there are runners on first and second and a ball is hit over the first base bag into the corner and it is called foul the play is dead. If it is reviewed and it should have been called fair do you assume the runner on first would have scored on the double? Do you leave him at third? That situation opens up to many further arguments. Out or safe at first base also causes the same problem but to a lesser degree.

I also don't like the balls and strikes replay either. Sure each umpire has their own strike zone, but every NFL/NBA/NHL has their own version of what a penalty/foul/penalty is too. Sure mistakes like Joe Mauer's foul ball in Game 2 vs. the Yankees happen but the umpiring is generally very good.

- Anybody who thinks that the blown Joe Mauer call cost the Twins that game and the series wasn't paying attention to it. The Twins left 17 runners on base in that game and ran the bases horribly. They also had the bases loaded with none out in that inning and couldn't score. That's why they lost.

When I picked the Twins to beat the Yanks it was because they had a great manager and played such smart baseball. Then is consecutive games they blew it with absolutely atrocious baserunning mistakes. It was unbelievable to watch.

- As Diamond Joe pointed out in the comments section of my Week 5 picks, the NFL has some truly awful teams this year. For a league that strives for all 32 teams finishing 8-8 this must be brutal for them. But I love it. I love knowing there are great teams and lousy ones. It's a hell of a lot more fun watching the Colts or Broncos play the Pats, Ravens or Steelers on Wild Card weekend than it is watching a potential Chargers/Texans game.

- Anyone notice how Adrian Peterson seems to be getting fewer touches and Brett Favre seems to throwing the ball a lot more than anyone said he would? I can't wait to watch him sink this team in a big playoff game.

- If Peyton Manning can win another Super Bowl ring he may go down as the best QB in history. He has not slipped at all as he has gotten older and he seems to thrive on the challenge of playing with a new cast of receivers and backs. He looks like he is having a hell of a lot of fun and with their defense playing well I don't see how they don't finish at least 13-3 and get to the AFC Championship game.

- I have always hated Jeff Fisher and the Titans so it is great to watch them go belly up this year. They are 0-5 and now go to New England with a lousy secondary that should get Tom Brady back on track.

At this point Vince Young needs to be made the starter because you need to see if he is your guy or not. As was pointed out during the game Sunday night, nobody in the Titans dressing room is speaking up for Young so they need to just put this situation out of its misery if he plays poorly. Having said that though, I wouldn't start him Sunday. It's a game they are going to lose anyway so why not start Young when the season is officially done for them and in a game they could potentially win.

NFL Week 5.

2009-10-09T14:35:00.004-04:00

Ms. Skeelo and I are heading to Lake Placid for the weekend so I need to make this quick.

I finally broke through last week so let's hope it continues. I am betting heavy on the favorites this week so we'll see.

Last Week: 10-4
Season 35-27

Vikings -10 over RAMS Normally I would look at a line like that and pick the underdog with the Vikings coming off a huge emotional win Monday night. But the 'dog in this case is the Rams who have scored 24 points this entire season and have been shutout twice. This line might as well be 20.

Cowboys -7 over CHIEFS The Chiefs have to play a decent game eventually, but so does Tony Romo so this is his week, as it usually is against bad teams. And yeah that was a backhanded compliment.

GIANTS -14 over Raiders You always have to give a 14 point 'dog a look. And then when you see that 'dog is the Raiders on the road and you stick with the favorite.

PANTHERS -3.5 over Redskins If there is a less appealing game this week I can't think of it.

Bucs +14 over EAGLES The Bucs nearly won outright last week in Washington and I think they can cover, but not win, this game. 14 seems high for some reason.

BILLS -6 over Browns I just thought of a less appealing game. Surely to God the Bills will beat the hopeless Browns by a touchdown at home. Won't they?

RAVENS -8 over Bengals A tough Ravens team at home coming off a loss on the road against a Bengals team that is nowhere near as good as there 3-1 record indicates? Come on.

Steelers -10.5 over LIONS The Steelers looked great last Sunday and the Lions, well, didn't.

Falcons -2.5 over 49ERS I literally flipped a coin on this one. This should be the best game of the week.

BRONCOS -3.5 over Patriots I'm a little surprised this game wasn't PK. You have to like the fact that Josh McDaniel knows everything that the Pats are going to do, that the Broncos are at home, and the way they won last week against the Cowboys. Last week I wouldn't have picked the Broncos in this game but I sure can now.

CARDS -5.5 over Texans Both of these teams are in the "everybody thought we were going to be good but maybe they shouldn't have thought that" category. One of them has to win so it might as well be the home team. And of course the Cards will get pounded again next week to put them back in the aforementioned category.

SEAHAWKS -2 over Jaguars Seattle is do for something to go right and the Jags are not much to look at.

Colts -3.5 over Titans The amazaing thing about the Colts is that they very rarely lose to teams they shouldn't lose to in the regular season. The Titans have fallen into that category in four short weeks. They are really that bad and there is no way the line for this game should be less than eight points. Did I also mention that Manning has a tendency to kick ass in prime time games? And that this game starts at 8:15 pm?

Jets -1 over DOLPHINS For some reason this is my most nervous pick of the week and I'm not sure why. The Jets D should feast on a backup QB for a bad team but Monday night divisional games tend to be closer than you would expect.

Division Series Preview.

2009-10-07T13:19:00.003-04:00

I really don't know what to think about the regular season this year as we head into the playoffs because every team has a fatal flaw. Every team that is except the Cardinals. And for that reason I think they will beat the Angels in the World Series.

ALDS

New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins.

Anyone who thinks the Yanks are a shoe-in to win the World Series hasn't watched them much this year. They have a great lineup and everyone knows that but outside of CC Sabathia there starting rotation is very thin. Do you honestly think AJ Burnett is going to pitch well under the playoff spotlight? Or that Andy Petite will regain his old playoff form? Or that their middle relief will suddenly not be shit? If the Yanks do win it is because they score 7 runs a night to do it.

And they have to get by the Twins first, which is not as easy as people think. There is a lot to be said for a team that has won 17 of 21 and has been fighting for a month to get into the playoffs. And don't forget about what a bitch of a place the Metrodome is to play. The thing that hurts the Twins though is that they start in NY tonight without a day off. Their rotation is thin but so is the Yankees. If they can win one of two in NY, which I think they will, they will win this series.

Twins in 4.

Anaheim Angels vs. Boston Red Sox

I watched a lot of Josh Beckett starts down the stretch and he does not look right at all. Luckily John Lester does as does Johnathan Papelbon. If Beckett can return to playoff form of years past the Red Sox will win the World Series because their lineup can still put up runs when it counts. You also can't dismiss the fact that they have owned the Angels in the post-season the last 6 years.

The one Achilles heel the Angels have always had is that they don't have a true ace. But I don't think that will matter as much this year because other rotations in the AL are not stacked either. I think the Lackey, Weaver, Kazmir and Santana quartet should be enough to get them through, especially the way there lineup can manufacture runs.

Angels in 5

NLDS

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies

If Brad Lidge had been even average this year I would have the Phillies winning the World Series again. Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels are the scariest one-two in the playoffs and their lineup of Rollins/Utley/Howard is still terrifying. They are also an excellent defensive team. I just think Lidge is going to kill them in a couple of tight games.

The Rockies are kind of like the Twins in that they are on fire. They have an underrated rotation but De La Rosa tweaked his groin in his last start. If he isn't 100% he won't be able to shut down Howard and Utley, which is key to beating the Phils.

Ultimately I just don't see the Rockies lineup scoring enough against Lee and Hamels

Phils in 4

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

The Dodgers have not so quietly been pretty average the second half of this year. Their offense is not great and their rotation is not great. The key to this team will be whether lefties Randy Wolf or Clayton Kershaw can shut down the Cards offense. The Cards can be had by lefties (which is why I would pick the Phils to beat them if they had a decent closer) but I don't think it will be the Dodgers lefties to shut them down. Their success really comes down to Manny. If he catches fire he can carry them through a round or two, if not they are toast.

The Cardinals are the most complete team in baseball. That doesn't necessarily mean the best, but it means they should win the World Series. Carpenter and Wainright are a great one-two and a good closer in Ryan Franklin. They also have a great game tactician in manager Tony LaRussa. And they still have Pujols and Holliday in the middle of the lineup.

Cardinals in 3.

AL Central Prediction

2009-10-06T15:18:00.002-04:00

As much as I want to see the Tigers win tonight, because the city of Detroit could definitely use it, I think the Twins are going to win and face the Yankees.

NHL Preview.

2009-10-05T15:15:00.005-04:00

I still watch a lot of hockey but I am not as into it as I used to be so here comes a pretty bare bones preview.

Note: This is actually more bare bones than I intended. I did this on Sunday but blogger ate most of it somehow so only part of it got saved. And now I just can't be bothered.

Eastern Conference

1. Boston Bruins Not much drop off for these guys and they will beat the hell out of Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa and Buffalo all year within the division.

2. Pittsburgh Penguins I would pick the Pens first but I think they will come out of the gates so fast that they will go on cruise control the last 20 games while resting for the playoffs.

3. Washington Capitals Fun as hell but I am not sold on their goaltending.

4. New Jersey Devils Marty Brodeur is healthy and that's all I need to know.

5. Philadelphia Flyers Pronger was born to wear that uniform

6. New York Rangers

7. Tampa Bay Lightning Stamkos matures and Hedman is great from day 1.

8. Carolina Hurricanes

9. Buffalo Sabres

10. Toronto Maple Leafs They have improved on defence but they still can't score goals.

11. Montreal Canadians Too damn small.

12. Ottawa Senators It is going to be a very long year in Ottawa. The Kovalev signing will be a disaster and I suspect Alfie will be looking for a trade at the deadline.

13. Florida Panthers

14. Atlanta Thrashers Kovalchuk will look good with the Penguing next year.

15. New York Islanders At least Tavares will be fun to watch.

Western Conference

1. San Jose Sharks Another President's Trophy and another 1st or 2nd round playoff exit.

2. Detroit Red Wings You keep waiting for them to take a step back and they never do.

3. Anaheim Ducks Perry, Getzlaf and Ryan are the best line in the West.

4. Calgary Flames

5. Chicago Blackhawks I see this team taking a step back. I am not sold on their goalies and I thin kthey lack maturity. Everyone sees them as a Cup contender but I don't.

6. St. Louis Blues Last year was no fluke, these guys are good. Also look for Paul Kariya to have a big year and make the Olympic team.

7. Vancouver Canucks Luongo needs to carry them in the playoffs this year because he hasn't done so yet.

8. Los Angeles The surprise team in the west.

9. Dallas Stars

10. Columbus Blue Jackets I'm still trying to figure out why Rick Nash re-upped here.

11. Nashville Predators I predict the Preds will be playing elsewhere in two years.

12. Minnesota Wild

13. Edmonton Oilers Pat Quinn will help but there is very little talent here.

14. Colorado Avalanche

15. Phoenix Coyotes The off ice soap opera has to be a huge distraction for these guys. I see a historically bad season ahead. I don't think they will get passed 65 points.

Stanley Cup - Penguins over Red Wings again

Hart Trophy - Sidney Crosby
Art Ross - Sidney Crosby
Vezina - Marty Brodeur one final time
Norris - Chris Pronger will have a monster year in Philly
Calder - John Tavares

JP Ricciardi Is Gone.

2009-10-03T14:18:00.000-04:00

I have nothing to say other than It's about fuckin' time.

NFL Week 4

2009-10-03T12:30:00.004-04:00

A couple things before we get started with the picks:

- Bill Simmons tackled this on espn.com and I think it is valid - Why does everyone think the Pats are going to go 12-4 because Brady is back? I mean they could because nobody is fantastic anymore, but I see them more as a 9-7 team. Brady has been taking a beating this season and he won't have the legs to go the entire season if his O line continues to play like it has more holes than Swiss cheese.

- I'm not too concerned with the Steelers as my Super Bowl pick despite their bad start. They lost Troy Polamalu for half the season but once he is back they should be OK. They are certainly no lock to win the AFC but I am not sure who is. At least not yet.

- I do think that if the Ravens go into New England and beat the hell out of the Pats, which they will, they have to be the favorite in the AFC. Their defense is still hellacious but they have now correctly taken the kid gloves off Joe Flacco and he is proving he can win games for them. It's gong to take a hell of a good game to beat these guys in the playoffs.

Last Week: 9-7
Season: 25-23

TEXANS -9.5 over Raiders I said when he got drafted #1 overall that Jamarcus Russell would be a bust but he might end up being a Ryan Leaf type bust. At least a guy like Brady Quinn knows what he should be doing behind the center. Russell has shown he has absolutely no clue how to play QB.

Titans -1.5 over JAGUARS I don't think the Titans are as bad as 0-3 might indicate and I am certain the Jags are.

Ravens +3 over PATS I don't think this will be close. Tom Brady is just going to get killed in this game.

Bengals -3.5 over BROWNS If the Rams aren't the worst team in the NFL the Browns are.

Giants -9 over CHIEFS The Giants look like the best team in the NFC so far and I don't see the Chiefs slowing them down at all.

BEARS -11 Lions The Lions will be emotionally spent after actually winning a game last week.

Bucs +7.5 over REDSKINS How badly has Dan Snyder screwed up the once proud 'Skins? Badly enough that I am taking the atrocious Bucs to cover, that's how badly.

COLTS -11 over Seahawks Hats off to Peyton Manning. I think at this point he could line up with the Pop Warner team around him and make the playoffs. He really is that bloody good.

SAINTS -6.5 over Jets I think the Jets are due for a bt of a letdown and the Superdome is a tough place to play when the Saints are rolling, which they are.

DOLPHINS PK over Bills Who the hell would even want to watch this game?

49ERS -10 over Rams If the Browns aren't the worst team in the NFL the Rams are. If they weren't in the NFC West I would say they had a realistic shot at 0-16.

BRONCOS +3 over Cowboys Neither team has beaten anybody good so I am going with the home team. As for the Broncos winning the AFC West they are in perfect position. They are 3-0 and only need to go 7-6 the rest of the way to do it. The next seven weeks are tough but if they come out of it at 3-4 they are fine.

STEELERS -5.5 over Chargers Both teams have to win this game, it's prime time, and Chargers coach Norv Turner usually gags in prime time games he has to win.

PACKERS -3.5 over Vikings Call me crazy but I think the Pack wants to destroy Brett Favre even more than he wants to destroy them.

So You Think You Can Dance Canada

2009-09-30T09:04:00.002-04:00

I have watched the last 4 seasons of the American version of So You Think You Can Dance as well as the first season of the Canadian version. I really enjoy the show but have to say that the current Canadian season is the best of any version I have seen by far.

The quality of the dancing has been phenomenal as have the competitors. Usually on this show it is easy to pick 8 of the top 10 before the first Top 20 episode begins. Not this year. Any one of the top 14 could have made the Final Four and it really was drawing straws to see who gets eliminated each week. The talent is so high that there is very little difference between the whoever wins and whoever gets the boot from the top 10 tonight. It really has been great to watch as the choreographers are really turning it up a notch this season too.

So who will win? I don't know. At the start of the season I thought Vincent would win and I still think he has a chance. I think he and Cody will be the last two guys standing. I think the last two girls standing will be Tara-Jean and Kim with Kim winning the whole thing.

Hats Off To Phil.

2009-09-29T09:00:00.003-04:00

I am pretty consistently tough on Phil Mickelson but it was pretty tough not to be rooting for him on Sunday. With all the problems he has had in his personal life this year it was great to see him win the Tour Championship. Let's hope his wife and Mom make fast recoveries and he can play next year without all that stress.

As for the FedEx Cup itself, it is improving. It's not perfect but it is getting better. There was some real suspense on the back nine on Sunday about who was going to win this thing (other than knowing damn well Tiger was going to I mean). The last couple of years Tiger and Vijay had it wrapped up before the last tournament practically even started.

The thing I like about it is that it rewards the whole year. Phil had a great weekend but he didn't have a great year so he didn't deserve the $10 million. Winning through the year means almost as much as winning in the final four events, which means Tiger is the favorite every year but that is as it should be. You won't get fluky winners in this thing as the fact that Tiger has won it twice and Vijay won the other will attest.

NFL Week 3

2009-09-26T18:02:00.003-04:00

Let's see if I can break out of mediocrity this week.

Last week: 8-8
Season: 16-16

JETS -6 over Titans This is my shakiest pick of the week. The Jets may be do for a letdown after beating the Pats but the Titans are just not that good.

TEXANS -4 over Jags The Jags just aren't that good and Houston might finally be pretty good.

EAGLES -9 over Chiefs KC is just awful. They look like a 2-14 team right now.

RAVENS -13 over Browns The line could be 20 and I would take it. The Ravens now how an offense to go along with their terrific D. And the Browns are just pathetic.

BUCS +7 over Giants More of a hunch because the Giants are on the road again a week after a big win in Dallas.

Redskins -6.5 over LIONS The Redskins are bad but I just can't take the Lions.

Packers -7 over RAMS No way the Pack doesn't kill the Rams after losing last week.

49ers +6 over VIKINGS I think the Vikes will win outright but it will be tight. The 49ers actually look decent and can run the ball.

Falcons +4.5 over PATRIOTS If I were a Pats fan I would be pretty worried about this team right now. Brady does not look right and the Falcons would love to make a statement by winning this one.

SEAHAWKS +1.5 over Bears Last week Cutler was up so this week he should be down.

Saints -4 over BILLS Despite almost beating the Pats ansd then beating the Bucs, the Bills still stink. Drew Brees throws at least 5 TD's this week.

CHARGERS -6 over Dolphins I don't know just how bad the Chargers are yet but I do know how big a drop off Miami will have this year after their surprise run last year.

Steelers -4.5 over BENGALS The poor Benglas catch Big Ben after a bad road loss.

Broncos -2.5 over RAIDERS This line should be about 7, not 2.5. I'm telling you the Broncos are winning this division. And going 4-0 vs. the Raiders and Chiefs to do it.

Colts +2.5 over CARDS Hard to bet against Peyton on a Sunday night game. Also betting on the over (48.5).

Panthers +9.5 over COWBOYS When is everyone going to realize Tony Romo and company are considered stars just because they have Stars on their helmets?

NFL Week 2

2009-09-19T14:15:00.002-04:00

A couple of things before I get into this weeks picks:

1. Anybody who thinks Jay Cutler is the Bears ticket to the Super Bowl is going to hate this guy by December. As a Broncos fan I have watched a lot of this guy over the past couple of years and trust me, the guy is not a winner.

Cutler has a great arm and big body but he is a complete goof who won't listen to anyone. He's also got the Brett Favre syndrome where he thinks he can jam any throw into his receiver because his arm is so strong. That leads to some god awful interceptions as you saw last week against Green Bay. There is no way Cutler lasts three years in Chicago.

2. Anybody who thinks Brett Favre is the Vikings ticket to the Super Bowl is going to eat their words at the end of the season. All Favre has to do is hand the ball off to Adrian Peterson 35 times a game, throw one TD and not turn the ball over. That will work for about 9 or 10 weeks. Then Favre's ego will take over and he will wreck this team. He is essentially football's version of Roger Clemens minus the steroids - it's all about Favre. There is now way he will allow Peterson to have the spotlight in big games down the stretch. Favre will throw at least three picks in a late season game that the Vikes need to win to get into the playoffs or if they get into the playoffs. Either way Favre is killing their season and it is going to be great to watch him make an ass of himself.

As for Favre's greatness it is up for discussion. The media loves the guy so they always say he is one of the 5 greatest QB's of all-time. Horseshit. He's not in the top 5 of his own era. I'll take Montanta, Elway, Brady and Peyton Manning over him in a heartbeat. I would also take Marino over him too. Yes Favre won a Super Bowl but he had Reggie White on defense, if Marino ever had a Reggie White he would have won a Super Bowl too. Give Ben Roethlisberger another couple of years and he will be better than Favre too. I'm not even sure I would take Favre over Steve Young at his best. Favre is great but sure has hell not top 15 all-time.

Last week I went 8-8, which frankly I was happy with to start the season.

Week 2

Raiders +3 over CHIEFS The Chiefs are awful until they prove otherwise.

Texans +7 over TITANS The Texans are better than they showed last week and Titans are worse.

Patriots -4 over JETS I actually think this is a pretty good Jets team but they pissed off Brady. Not a good idea. Though this is my most nervous pick of the week.

PACKERS -9 over Bengals I just can't take the Bengals on the road. I just can't.

Vikings -9.5 over LIONS Like I said last week, I am betting against the Lions every game this year. So far I am 1-0.

Saints PK over EAGLES Drew Brees is a machine. When are people going to start realizing how good this guy is?

FALCONS -6.5 over Panthers I think the Panthers will rally around Jake Delhomme. It just won't be enough on the road against the eventual division winner.

REDSKINS -10 over Rams By the end of the year the Rams may be worse than the Lions.

JAGUARS -4.5 Cards I think the Jags suck but I don't like a west coast team with a 1pm eastern start time.

Seahawks +1 over 49ERS I am pretty sure the Florida Gators would go 8-0 in home and homes vs. the NFC West.

Bucs +4.5 over BILLS Don't let last week fool you, the Bills are a 3-13 team.

BRONCOS -3.5 over Browns Last week's winning touchdown was a fluke for the Broncos but them winning the AFC West this year won't be a fluke.

Ravens -3 over CHARGERS When does Norv Turner lose his job? This team is soft and about to lose a lot of identity with Ladainian Tomlinson being phased out of big moments.

Steelers -3 over BEARS As per my comments to start this post, Jay Cutler vs. the Steelers D? Are you kiddin'?

COWBOYS -3 over Giants Home field don't mean much anymore but Dallas should be pumped for the first home game in that shrine to Jerry Jones.

Colts -3 over DOLPHINS This has more to do with how bad the Dolphins will be this year (6-10 bad) vs. how good the Colts will be this year (to be determined but I see them winning the division and getting bounced on wild card weekend).

The NFL

2009-09-10T12:36:00.004-04:00

I really enjoy watching NFL but I don't know enough about it to really give a thorough breakdown and season preview, which is why I don't. And just to prove how little I know about football, this year I have decided to bet on each week's games and keep a running tally each week. Who knows, I may have a future as a handicapper.

I will give this prediction before the season gets under way tonight in Pittsburgh - I like the Steelers over the Falcons (I could see about 8 teams winning the NFC because there is no dominant team. I just think Atlanta is the best of them) in the Super Bowl. Though I think the Patriots are just a slight hair below the Steelers, mostly because Tom Brady feels he has to prove he is healthy and he scares me if he has something to prove.

Tonight - STEELERS (-6) over Titans

Sunday's picks will come tomorrow.

Sunday

FALCONS (-4) over Dolphins
RAVENS (-10) over Chiefs
Eagles (-1) over PANTHERS
Broncos (+4) over BENGALS
Vikings (-3.5) over BROWNS
TEXANS (-4.5) over Jets
COLTS (-7) over Jags
SAINTS (-13) over Lions I am going to pick the Lions to lose against the spread every week this year. I figure that is good for at least a 12-4 record on their games alone.
CARDS (-6.5) over 49ers
Cowboys (-5.5) over BUCS
GIANTS (-6)over Redskins
Rams (+7.5) over SEAHAWKS
PACKERS (-3.5) over Bears

Monday
PATRIOTS (-10.5) over Bills
Chargers (-9) over RAIDERS

The FedEx Cup or whatever the hell they call it.

2009-08-27T08:31:00.002-04:00

Ms. Skeelo have had a very busy three weeks since we got back from the UK, mostly because we are scrambling to get things done before we head to New Hampshire for a week and a half tomorrow.

I thought it was great watching Tiger get beat by Y.E. Yang at the PGA 2 weeks ago. Eventually Tiger was going to lose a major that he was leading going into the last round and don't think it's a fluke that it was a relative no-name who took it from him. Phil, Ernie, etc. have proven time and again that they are terrified of the guy and will likely never catch him from behind. I still hold hope that Paddy Harrington can give Tiger a run but the pathetic 8's he has had at Firestone and Hazeltine give me pause.

You had to figure it would be a long shot who would play with a loose "Why not me?" attitude like Yang. The only other guys to come close to taking one from Tiger were Bob May and an at the time 19 year old Sergio Garcia. It's guys who don't feel the pressure the same way that will continue to be dangerous to Tiger.

So what will the affect be? Well some of Tiger's invincibility has been taken away but he is still going to be the best guy out here for a long time. And as much as other guys think they can take him down now, I think that will be offset by Tiger's determination to not let it happen again. You now that night had to have been one of the worst of his life and I really don't think he is in a hurry to repeat it.

Some have said that he may not break Jack's record of 18 majors anymore. Horseshit. That is still inevitable (especially with the US Open and British being played at Pebble and St. Andrew's next year. Those two are automatic for him) but I don't think he is going to win the 25 he may have been on pace for a few years ago. Mitch Albom recently put it best when he said we are now watching the rest of Tiger's career. It is going to be a lot harder for him to win his next 5-7 majors (which would put him at 21 and I think that will be it) than it was for him to win the first 14. And a large reason for that is the young guys like Anthony Kim and Rory McIlroy who gave grown up watching Tiger and have the same kind of "I'm out here to kick ass" football mentality that Tiger brought to the tour. Those guys are going to start winning with regularity very soon and it will cut into the older guys victory totals.

As far the FedEx Cup that starts this week though, Tiger is as close to a lock to win it as there ever will be. He goes into it in the lead and any event that requires the consistency of four great weeks and has a $10 million top prize has his name written all over it.

The PGA

2009-08-13T09:00:00.004-04:00

The easiest thing to do, again, is to pick Tiger to win this week. Yes he has won all four pre-major tournaments he has entered this year and not won the major following it but the PGA is a bit different. He is gunning to tie for the most PGA's ever and he hasn't won a major this year so he will be more motivated than ever. So I expect a top 4 finish but I am not picking him.

Hazeltine has been lengthened the way all other major courses seem to these days. All lengthening these courses does however, is really narrow the field of potential winners. Eventually somebody will clue in and realize the best thing for golf is difficult courses in the 7000 yard range that reward great shot making and not just 340 yard drives.

But I digress. Because Hazeltine is so long it is only going to be a big hitter who wins. So who if not Tiger? One of Angel Cabrera, Paddy Harrington or Henrik Stenson. I think Cabrera is going to go the Kenny Perry route and just get better as he gets older except he is much more talented than Perry. He absolutely destroys the ball off the tee and makes every clutch putt with his easy stroke. He also has the perfect quiet "I want to kill everybody else out here but just won't say it" kind if mentality. He would absolutely not be intimidated by a Tiger Sunday pairing. Same goes for Paddy who had a great week last week until put on the clock. He hits bombs and has proven he can win big ones. And Tiger respects him more than any other guy out there so you know he must be damn good. But I think Stenson is the guy who will finally break through. He hits huge drives but is also great with his long irons, which is essential for this course, and has been close in recent majors. This week he puts it all together.

Back From Vacation

2009-08-12T09:07:00.001-04:00

Ms. Skeelo and I are now back from our two week vacation in the UK. I may even post some pictures.

I'll be back tomorrow with some posts.

The Cards Must Have Hear Me.

2009-07-24T14:25:00.002-04:00

The Cardinals just picked up Matt Holliday from the A's. I think getting out of purgatory in Oakland and back to the NL should be a huge motivator for him. And now the Cards finally have a real in his prime 30+ home run threat to surround Pujols with. Albert's numbers can only get better now, if that's possible.

Albert Pujols. Ain't Nothin' Like Him.

2009-07-23T10:45:00.006-04:00

I figured Albert Pujols deserved his own post because I need to go into detail into exactly what we are fortunate enough to be watching as his career plays out.

Sports Illustrated had an interesting article this week, co-written by Bill James, about the historical statistical comparison of Pujols with other all-timers. I am firmly against a lot of the stat head shit that has overtaken baseball in the last decade and absolutely loathe Moneyball (how many World Series have the A's been to in the past 15 years exactly? Zero is the answer. And the no count Marlins have won two in that time for comparison purposes) but player stats like batting average, runs scored, RBI's and HR's are timeless.

Up until the end of last year the best hitter I had ever seen (I was born in '75) was Manny Ramirez. He was a threat to win the Triple Crown every year in his '98-'05 prime (which he is past now but still rakes as well as anyone. Well, except Pujols) and I shudder to think what numbers he could have put up if he wasn't such a goddamn wingnut and had been able to concentrate 162 games a year. The thing about Manny was how he almost always got the barrel of the bat on the ball and how smart a hitter he was. He is still the only hitter I have ever seen who would work a pitcher. He would intentionally put a bad swing on a pitch in the early innings to make a pitcher think he could get one by him again later in the game. In the 7th or 8th inning the guy would throw the pitch again and Manny would hit a 3 run Homer. Manny is a lot of things but one of those things is one of the 6 or 7 best right handed hitters of all-time.

But Pujols is better. I really think he is going to win the Triple Crown this year and if he doesn't this year he will be a threat to win it every year and will win it eventually. He is only 29 and has about 5 years of prime left (baseball players primes are develop later in age than other sports and is usually from about 28-34). Even after his prime finishes he will have 5 or 6 more years, if he wants to play that long, that he can put up .315/32/110. He is going to finish with career stats that are pretty much unequaled throughout baseball history. The consistency of his first nine seasons is mind boggling and he is only getting better.

The most amazing thing to consider about his success is that he has never had another power hitter in the lineup protecting him the way Manny had with Albert Belle and Jim Thome in Cleveland and David Ortiz in Boston. Pujols walks over 90 times a year (and expect that to jump to about 120 a year for the next several) and still puts up big numbers, which makes his numbers more impressive because he makes the most of the pitches he does see.

There are two things that make this guy the best I have seen that other potential "best I have seen guys" don't have. They all share traits such as a great eye and the ability to keep their hands back even when they are fooled on a pitch and their bodies go forward. But the two things that Pujols does are a) almost never pulls off the ball resulting in hitting with power to all fields consistently and b) his bat is level no matter where the pitch is. I've never seen anyone do that. If the ball is at his knees he drops his hands to level at the knees, if it is up he keeps his hands up and level. That's why so many of his home runs look like line drives that just keep going. It's uncanny.

Manny never pulled off the ball either but his hands were often reaching for the ball and he could get away with it with brute strength. ARod pulls off the ball a lot when he is slumping. Ryan Howard goes to all fields but will never hit for the average Pujols will and strikes out too much. Those are the only three guys who have the all field power Pujols has (Bonds had all field power too. McGwire had virtually none) but none will hit for the average he will.

All you can do his admire Pujols and hope the hell the Cardinals get another 35 Home Run guy to put behind him in the lineup. Then his numbers will get even scarier.

Enjoy the show because we may never see another one like him in our lifetime. And let's just hope he faces Brad Lidge on a regular basis for the rest of his career (play it with the mute on). I still think Lidge should take out a restraining order against him.

Baseball Observations

2009-07-23T10:14:00.002-04:00

As we approach the 100 game mark I wanted to take a look back at what I thought and predicted at the start of the year versus how I think things will play out the rest of the year.

As for AL Predictions I am not too bad. The Red Sox are 2 back of the Yanks and I am not at all worried that they won't win the division. Nor am I worried that Tampa won't win the Wild Card. The Red Sox were due for a bad stretch and this was it. Having DiceK on the shelf certainly doesn't help but their starting pitching is still the best in the division and they have the best bullpen by far. The Yanks pitching is eventually going to kill them (quick note: has it occurred to anyone that the reason the new Yankee Stadium is seeing so many home runs is because the Yanks pitching is not great and their lineup is stacked with guys who hit bombs?) but they will still continue to hit. As for Tampa they scare the hell out of me as a Red Sox fan. Now that Kazmir has settled down and Price is back up they could go on a 21-4 run just about anytime. Though me predicting Pat Burrell would hit 40 dingers is looking pretty stupid.

Despite the fact Detroit is leading the Central I still think the Twins can win it though I won't be surprised if Detroit hangs on. They are finally close to what they were when they made their World Series run a few years ago. And I am sticking with my Justin Morneau MVP pick.

As for the West the Angels are about to run away with it so that pick was safe.

In the NL I am surprised how good the Dodgers have been, especially without Manny in the lineup for 2 months. Their pitching has been fantastic and see no reason for that to change. Don't get me started on how bad my Wild Card pick D'Backs are. I honestly can't believe how bad they are. I thought the real team was the one that made the run to the playoffs two years ago, not the one that stunk last year. Apparently not.

In the East the Phillies are just going to run away and hide. They are clearly the best team in that division and have nothing to worry about in the Mets or Braves.

I may have rocks in my head but I still think the Cubs are going to win the Central. As terrible as they have been they are still only one game out in what is clearly the most pathetic division in baseball. The Cubs are bound to get hot at some point, they are too talented not to rip through that division. But I do think the Cardinals will end up with the Wild Card. Albert Pujols was pretty obvious choice for MVP and there is no way he won't win it (another post on him is coming very soon).

So how does this all shape up for October. I am sticking with the Red Sox to win again after beating the Rays int he ALCS, but I think they are going to beat the Phillies in the Series. For some reason I just see the Dodgers lineup going south against the Phils again in the NLCS.

Doc.

2009-07-20T12:50:00.002-04:00

With his dominating complete game win over the Red Sox yesterday Roy Halladay proved why the Jays should not trade him.

The whole idea of trading him is predicated on one big thing - That the incompetent JP Ricciardi can get enough value in return for him. Trust me on this, there is no way in hell JP is going to get a Bartolo Colon for Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips package out of this. But why would you trade him anyway? He is the best pitcher in baseball and he is still only 32. You will never replace him in the rotation. He is the most valuable asset in the baseball - a proven innings eater and winner who never has arm problems. He's a much better version of Curt Schilling minus the obnoxious ego.

Forget trading him, the Jays should be signing him to a 4 year extension past this year. He is the main reason to show up to see this team and he is their best marketing piece and only real draw when on the road. And his team is really not that far off. They have a potential 16-18 game winner/No. 2 starter in Ricky Romero, some decent arms in the pen and rising stars in Aaron Hill and Adam Lind. If Travis Snider comes up as he should the next couple of years you have a pretty good lineup with Doc still in his prime.

If the Jays do trade him they are officially a joke and all the Jays fans living south of the border will officially stop following them and gong out of their way to attend road games. And I wouldn't expect season tickets sales at Rogers Center to improve any either. Only 4 teams haven't made the playoffs since the wild card was introduced - the Nationals, Pirates, Royals and Jays. The Jays are not in the same lowly class as those other three but losing Doc would start the decline to being a laughingstock like them.

So what are the chances he does get traded? I say about 5%. The only teams I can see him going to are Philly and Anaheim because they are the only teams with enough prospects and money to afford him. Other than the Red Sox but even JP isn't stupid enough to trade him in the division.

If he does go I hope for his sake he goes to the Phillies. In the pathetic NL he could win 26 games next year.

Dribs and Drabs

2009-07-15T12:57:00.003-04:00

I will be back over the next couple of days with thoughts on NBA signings, trades and who got better and who got worse (Celtics and Spurs are the former and Magic are the latter. The Cavs are neither), as well as a look at MLB at the All-Star break. And no the Jays shouldn't trade Roy Halladay.

British Open Pick.

2009-07-15T12:51:00.002-04:00

Ms. Skeelo and I are actually heading to the UK in a couple of weeks and it would have been amazing to be there during the Open. Alas our schedules did not allow it.

I'm not buying that Tiger is the favorite at this thing. He always gets plugged in as the favorite because he is the number 1 player but it is never a lock the way, say Roger Federer is in tennis or a dominant college basketball number 1 is. I would actually argue Paddy Harrington is the guy to beat. Anyone who has won 2 Claret Jugs in a row knows how to get around a links course and can get a third. As much as I would like to see Paddy get it again I don't think he will.

Once again I am going to go with Sergio Garcia. He just hits the ball to well to not win one of these things eventually. And his less than great putting stroke does not come into effect too much at the Open because the greens are usually so much slower than in the US. He has been playing reasonably well of late and always gets up for this event. I say he wins his first major this week.

US Open Pick

2009-06-17T14:57:00.002-04:00

If you think about it the US Open is the one major of the four that Tiger should be the favorite in every year, not The Masters. I say that because he is the best grinder on tour and par is gold at this tournament. Nobody makes more tough pars than Tiger and he can handle the tough greens better than anyone.

And right now the easiest thing to do is pick Tiger based on his driving performance at The Memorial 2 weeks ago but I am still not convinced he is going to hit half the fairways at Bethpage Black. If he does somehow manage to hit the fairways he is going to win this thing easily because he can get close enough to the pins with his approach shots from the fairway that even average putting, well average for him at least, will be enough. The same thing actually goes for Phil who I would like to see win given what he and Amy are going through right now.

I see them both in the hunt but don't see either winning. I think this course is perfect for a long hitting guy who has handled the pressure of a Major before. A guy like Geoff Ogilvie. I am actually really surprised he hasn't won another major since his first US Open because he think he is going to end up winning 4 or 5 Majors. I think this week he will win again with Tiger finishing right behind him.

So You Think You Can Dance

2009-06-12T12:52:00.002-04:00

Ms. Skeelo and I are very happy that So You Think You Can Dance is back for another season this summer. Of all the talent/reality shows this has to be the best one. And not just because of the gorgeous host Cat Deeley.

The guy and girl I would like to see win are Vitolio and Asuka (the cutest dancer to appear on any of the five seasons). Both are great dancers obviously but I like love both their personalities. I think they'll both make the Top 10 but I don't think they'll make the final four. For that I will go with Brandon, Phillip, Kayla and Caitlin with Phillip winning.

If the first week of performances was any indication it is going to be one hell of an impressive year.

Red Sox - Yanks

2009-06-12T10:04:00.001-04:00

Make that 8-0 after the great 8th inning comeback last night. This is just fantastic to watch.

Red Sox - Yanks

2009-06-10T13:29:00.003-04:00

For those keeping score at home the Red Sox are now 6-0 vs. the Yanks this year after lighting up AJ Burnett at Fenway again last night. AJ Burnett has to be the most consistent pitcher in Major League Baseball. You can always count him to choke in a big game.

LeBron, Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper.

2009-06-10T12:52:00.004-04:00

- I know I am a week late on this but I have to talk briefly about LeBron and his snub of the media and the Magic at the end of Game 6 when the Cavs were knocked out.

First his supposed lack of sportsmanship when he walked off the court without shaking hands with the Magic. I have absolutely no problem with that whatsoever. What nobody mentioned was that when he fouled Dwight Howard with a couple of minutes left and the game was decided he gave Howard a really quick low five, or in other words, "Congrats man. You beat us straight up and good luck in the Finals". That's all he needed to do. If he had stuck around after the buzzer all the Magic players would have said to him was "tough luck LeBron. You went for 38-12-12 against in this series, you were awesome, we couldn't stop you, your miracle three at the buzzer of Game 2 was the only reason we didn't sweep you, and you were the best player on the court and next year you'll kill us." You really think LeBron was in a mood to hear how great he was in a series he lost because his teammates and coach were absolutely horseshit around him? Hell no. That's why he got off the court.

I do however, have a huge problem with him not talking to the media. LeBron is the undisputed face of the league (Kobe is too polarizing to be) and the leader of the Cavs. You have to take your medicine after getting whipped in the playoffs and face the media. I don't care if you just sit there and give the same boring answer to every question but what you don't do is head straight to the team bus after you shower. The league was right to fine him for that.

- There is no way in hell I would have drafted Stephen Strasburg with the No. 1 overall pick the way the Washington Nationals did yesterday. I honestly hope this guy is as good as everybody says he can be and has a Hall of Fame career but the risk of taking a pitcher as the top pick is just too risky. Look at Ben McDonald, Brien Taylor and others who have been drafted first. No Cy Youngs and no 20 win seasons. The most recent example of "best pitching prospect I've ever seen" was Mark Prior who went #2 to the Cubs. That didn't work out so well. And who did the Twins take at #1 that year? 2 time batting champ and future Hall of Famer Joe Mauer. I think the Twins would take that pick again.

The problem is that pitching success in high school, college, and progressing through the minors doesn't translate the way hitting does. If you can hit you can hit at any level, but success in AA ball on the mound does not equal success at the big league level.

The other thing with Strasburg will be the price tag for him. If Scott Boras honestly believes he can get $50 million guaranteed money for him he is out of his mind. There is no way he will get more than $12 million. Boras wants to use DiceK's contract as a reference point but DiceK had already proven himself in the Japanese league, which is equivalent to Triple A or a bit better, and in a lot more international competitions.

As for the Nationals needing to make a splash, well winning makes a splash better than anything. To draft this guy for publicity, with as long as it takes baseball players to develop, would be absolutely moronic, which come to think of it is consistent with the Nats who are on their way to being the baseball equivalent of the Clippers.

- I have been getting Sports Illustrated for 20 years now and I have never been as ambivalent on a cover story as I have been with this week's issue. Putting a 16 year old baseball player on your cover and hailing him as "The Chosen One" and the baseball equivalent of LeBron is too over the top. As I just said baseball's draft and scouting is the least accurate of the 4 major North American sports because it takes guys so much longer to adapt and reach their primes. Again, I hope Bryce Harper turns out to be incredible but hitting in high school or international Youth team tournaments is a hell of a lot different than facing Doc Halladay's biting slider or Josh Beckett throwing at your head at Fenway Park.

My bigger issue is with Harper himself. The fact that he allowed himself to be interviewed for the story at age 16 means he is fair game to any criticism because I wouldn't normally rip a 16 year old. He seems to come from a good family and background but somebody better teach him to deal with the media. When Tom Verducci asked him about his goals he said " Be in the Hall of Fame, definitely. Play in Yankee Stadium. Play in the pinstripes. Be considered the greatest baseball player who ever lived. I can't wait." No surprise he has Scott Boras as an advisor. He doesn't mention wanting to win a World Series, hitting game winning home runs, or being the type of catcher that turns a decent pitching staff into a great one. Just playing for the Yankees. His mother said he loves dirt and "has this thing for dirt." I fuckin' hope he likes dirt because if he is still this arrogant when he gets to the bigs, and after Boras gets him a ridiculously huge contract, he is going to spend a lot of time in it when pitchers like Halladay, Beckett and Hamels are throwing at his head.

Like I said I hope he's great but putting this kind of pressure on a kid didn't work out too well for Josh Hamilton did it?

NBA Finals Preview

2009-06-04T17:26:00.002-04:00

So a funny thing happened on the way to the Kobe - LeBron Finals showdown. But more about the Cavs and LeBron tomorrow.

LA Lakers vs. Orlando Magic

This may be the best chance Kobe has left to win another title, his own title so to speak. The Lakers will be great for a few more years and he could still win after this year but other teams like Portland, Cleveland and even Orlando will get better next year so he needs to win now. But in order for him to win he will need help.

Despite the Magic's success against the Lakers this season the Finals will be different. I don't see Rafer Alston shredding the Lakers the way Jameer Nelson did in the regular season, which was key for the Magic (and if Nelson is able to play he should, even if for only 10 minutes a game), and key for beating the Lakers for that matter who have trouble with quick guards. I also see the Lakers intensity picking up a lot having been waxed in the Finals last year.

The Magic have been able to beat the Celtics and especially Cavs by shooting a ridiculius 47% of three's in their last 9 games. They were able to torch the Cavs because they had short perimeter defenders like Delonte West and Mo Williams on Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu and Lewis and Hedo could shoot over them. Cavs coach Mike Brown was also too dumb to put LeBron on whoever the hot shooter was. The length of Lakers such as Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol and Trevor Ariza will cause Orlando problems and Kobe will be able to keep Mickael Pietrus off balance and from getting on another hot streak. The Lakers will also be smart enough to let Gasol and Andrew Bynum defend Dwight Howard one on one and not pack down on him leaving the outside shooters open.

Howard is still not a guy you have to double team and more importantly he is still prone to foul trouble. If he ends up guarding Gasol a lot that will mean problems for him. If Bynum gives the Lakers anything, and he should in at least 3 games, the Lakers front court with show how tough it is (you read that right. The Lakers are a lot tougher than people, including me, have given them credit for) and cause Orlando big problems.

As with other Lakers series what it comes down to for them is their bench. Will Luke Walton, Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown give them anything consistent? If they do then they will win. If they don't Orlando can win because their bench will contribute, Pietrus can do a good job on Kobe defensively and they will have games where they still shoot lights out.

So what happens? Kobe wins 2 games on his own and his bench helps him get the other two. The 2-3-2 format also helps the Lakers here because I think they take Games 1 and 2, win 1 of 3 in Orlando, then clinch in Game 6 at home.

Lakers in 6

Stanley Cup Finals Preview

2009-05-30T12:39:00.002-04:00

Detroit Red Wings vs. Pittsburgh Penguins

I said last year that the Pens-Wings Finals reminded me a lot of the Isles-Oilers final in '84. You had the veteran Isles team winning their 4th straight Cup by beating a young, hungry Edmonton team with Gretzky and Messier ready to break out and carry the league. The next year the two teams met again and the Oilers won their first Cup. I said after last year that I thought Pittsburgh would repeat that performance and beat the Wings this year to win the Cup.

At the start of this year though I thought the Wings picking up Marion Hossa kept them slightly ahead of the Penguins. However, I don't think that now. The Wings are as good as they were last year but not better. They may even be a bit less than they were last year because Lidstrom and Datsyuk are not at 100% health. The big difference in this series this year is that the Pens are a lot better. Crosby was playing on a bad ankle in last year's Final but is full healthy right now, Bill Guerin is an improvement over Hossa because he goes to the net harder and can score bigger goals than Hossa did, Fluery is a much better goalie this year, and Jordan Staal is much improved. But the biggest difference is that Malkin has become every bit as dominant as Crosby this year. Sid and Malkin are the two best players in the league (sorry Mr. Ovechkin but you need to learn to back-check) and the Wings will have no answer for them.

Pens in 6.

Doc Needs To Start Tonight

2009-05-21T12:39:00.002-04:00

If I was Cito Gaston I would pitch Roy Halladay on three days rest tonight. This isn't only a series in May, it is a huge series for the jays morale and they can't get swept. Throwing Doc tonight would show that the Jays are serious about winning the division.

The Red Sox are about to go 8-0 against the Jay and Yanks this year if they win tonight and the Jays have given them now reason yet to fear them as I said earlier this week. The Jays don't have a hope in hell of winning the division if Vernon Wells and Alex Rios don't start hitting and unless they trade for another front of the rotation starter because there rotation won't hold up. But winning with Doc tonight would show the Sox that they can't expect to beat the Jays when they have their best on the mound.

On another note David Ortiz looks about done. I have watched 6 or 7 Sox games this year and he does not look recovered from wrist surgery in the off season. Actually he probably has but he just can't hit the high heater anymore. He used to feast on inside fastballs and he just can't get around on them anymore. It's going to be a long year for him and I'm just glad Jason Bay can help carry some of the load caused by Ortiz's drop-off.

NBA Conference Finals

2009-05-19T18:18:00.004-04:00

3-1 in the 2nd round leaves me at 8-4 so far. All year long I thought the Lakers would beat the Cavs in the Finals. But with the Cavs rolling through the East they are going to be well rested. Whoever they play in the Finals will not be. Stay tuned.

Western Conference

1. LA Lakers vs 2. Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets have been the best team in the playoffs so far. I know the Cavs haven't lost but they beat on the Pistons and Hawks while the Nuggets beat two very good teams in the Hornets and Mavs. What has most impressed and surprised people in the defense the Nuggets have been playing. Kenyon Martin is back to his old intimating self, Nene is rebounding, scoring and knocking people all over the place and Chris Anderson is a great weak side shot blocker with a tonne of energy. Their high scoring offense is not a big shock because Chanucey Billups is not a shoot first guy so Carmelo Anthony can look for his own shot whenever he needs. And I agree with Charles Barkley that Melo is the most explosive scorer in the league. I wouldn't be at all shocked if they win this series despite the Lakers sweeping them last year and beating the 3 of 4 in the regular season.

So what of the Lakers? They have an awful habit of playing to the level of their competition so I actually think they will play a lot better against the Nuggets than they did against the Rockets because they know how good Denver is. The Lakers are mentally lazy, arrogant and think they can just turn it on whenever they need to. Their problem is that they are right. In the three must win games against the Rockets they won games 2, 5 and 7 easily. This team must drive Phil Jackson completely crazy.

Kobe is going to be Kobe and Billups and Melo are going to be great as well. This series comes down to Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum. Martin, Nene and Anderson will show up every night and bust their ass. But those three are not as good as Gasol, Odom and Bynum when those three show up. If they play as badly as they did in the Finals last year this series is done in 6 and the Nuggets move on. For some reason I am giving them the benefit of the doubt and thinking they will show up at least 4 times. Which means Lakers move on.

Lakers in 7

Eastern Conference

1. Cleveland Cavliers vs 3. Orlando Magic

Saying the Nuggets have been the most impressive team in the playoffs is to tkae nothing away from the Cavs. And it is pretty damn obvious that LeBron James has been the best player in the playoffs. The guy is playing like he is possessed. There is really no stopping him right now so the best way to beat the Cavs is to hope guys like David West and Mo Williams have off nights.

The Magic were able to beat the Celtics because they they are able to get hot from behind the three point line for long stretches. They really are the rarest of NBA teams in that they are an effective outside-in team. And part of the reason for that is Dwight Howard's limited offensive game. As much as I love Howard I thought it was ridiculous that people were calling for the offense to go through im against the Celts. They can't for two reasons: 1. He is a below average passer and 2. He has no moves when he is more than 6 feet from the basket. He scores all his points on dunks, putbacks and from the line (though he is a poor free throw shooter he gets there a lot). That's not to take anything away from him because he is unstoppable near the basket, but because he is such a good offensive rebounder is why the Magic can rely on the three so much with guys like Hedo Turkoglu and Rashad Lewis. I also think that's the reasn Orlando will win Game 3 at home.

The problem for the Magic in this series is that the Cavs are the best perimeter defense team in the league and LeBron can lock down either Hedo or Lewis and Mo Williams and lock down the other. Bid Z and Joe Smith will do a decent job against Howard and I saw enough of Rafer Alston in a Raptors jersey to know he ain't helpin' a team get to the Finals. The Cavs have been a given in the Finals since Christmas and there is no reason to think the Magic can stop them.

Cavs in 5.

NHL Conference Finals

2009-05-17T14:20:00.000-04:00

Detroit over Chicago in 6
Pittsburgh over Carolina in 5

Are The Jays Going To Hang Around?

2009-05-15T13:52:00.003-04:00

With the Jays off to a 23-14 start and a 1 game lead in the AL East enough time in the season has past to ask if they are for real and if they can hang on?

The answer to the first question is Yes and the second is No. A biggest reason they are off to such a hot start is because they have only played 6 divisional games and have not had to play the Red Sox and Rays yet. What they have done is exactly what they need to do though and that is beat up on the AL Central and West. I think they are going to get their asses kicked all year by Boston and Tampa and I think they are about as good as the Yankees. The Yanks pitching stinks but with ARod back they will score runs, especially against the bottom of the Jays rotation, which I don't think is going to hold up.

The Jays also need to start getting a lot more from Vernon Wells and Alex Rios, a pair that are very quickly becoming vastly overrated. Aaron Hill, Scott Rolen and Adam Lind are all very good hitters but you can't expect the three of them to hit over .320 all year.

So what happens with the Jays? Well if they were in any other divison in baseball I would say they have a shot to win the division or make a real run at the Wild Card. But unfortunately they are in the toughtest division in baseball. I expect them to lose a lot of divisional games and end up around .500 with a shot of winning maybe 87 games at most. And I expect the Red Sox to run away with the division.

NBA Round 2.

2009-05-04T12:43:00.003-04:00

After going 5-3 in the 1st round I am confident of going 4-0 in the second.

East

1. Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 4. Atlanta Hawks

It would be easy to get suckered into thinking the Hawks have a chance in this series. They took the Celtics to Game 7 last year (which actually looks less impressive given that the Bulls pushed the Celts to 7 this year) and are a year mor experienced. Mike Bibby is playing really well as is Joe Johnson. The Haks are athletic, can score and can block shots. And they are still going to get destroyed in this series.

Watching the Cavs take apart the Pistons was a thing of beauty. They were just ruthless. Usually in a sweep there are parts of games where you think the veteran team getting swept might actually min a game. Not that series. LeBron is focused and the supporting cast, especially Mo Williams are playing great. I see another sweep here.

Cavs in 4

2. Boston Celtics vs. 3 Orlando Magic

I have no idea how to handicap this one. Kevin Garnett and Leon Powe are out for the Celtics so Dwight Howard should go nuts for the Magic but I can see Big Baby David and Kendrick Perkins playing him pretty well. The Magic can hit outisde shots but the Celtics have good perimeter D with Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo. There a couple of other big questions for each team. For the Celtics can Ray Allen keep playing well and hitting all the big shots? I say yes. And what of Pierce? He looks shot right now and doesn't have his legs. I think he may have a lot of trouble in this series against Rashad Lewis and the other quick Magic guys. He just looks tires after playing so much the past two years and carrying the team with Garnett out. For the Magic will Rafer Alston be useful in this series or will Rajon Rondo eat him alive? And will the Magic keep hitting threes because if they don't they lose.

I think the Magic will hit enough 3's to stay in the series but I think eventually Rajon Rondo continuing his coming out party will get the Celtics to the Conference Finals.

Celtics in 7.

West

1. LA Lakers vs. 5. Houston Rockets

I figured the winner of the Rockets-Trail Blazers series was best equipped to give the Lakers some trouble in the west. The main reason the Rockets may make this interesting is because they have two guys, Ron Artest and Shane Battier, who can make Kobe work really hard night in, night out. He is going to score but he may get worn down. What the Rockets also have going for them is that the Lakers don't have anyone who can match up with Yao.

But ont he other hand the Rockets can't stop Pau Gasol or Lamar Odom. The Lakers are going to score over 100 a game and I just don't see the Rockets being able to match that at all. As much as they may match up on paper this one is done quick.

Lakers in 5

2. Denver Nuggets vs. 6. Dallas Mavericks

Watching the Nuggets dismantle the Hornets has me convinced they can give the Lakers a series. The main reason is the impact Chauncey Billups has had on Carmelo Anthony. Carmelo is finally playing like the well rounded player he always could be. He also doesn't have to worry about whether he is going to get the ball at the end of the game.

The most impressive thing about the Nuggets though is their interior defense. With Nene, Kenyon Martin and Chris Anderson they have three long athletic big guys who can jump out of the gym, block shots and score a lot of put back points. They are scary as hell to play against and willl keep Dirk Nowitzki in check. And without Nowitzki lighting it up the Mavs have no chance in this series.

Nuggets in 5.