The Pursuit Of Leisure

100% correct, 50% of the time. A tongue in cheek look at culture both high and low.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Ducks Shocker

Now that Brian Burke is officially done with the Ducks, how long will it be before he is introduced as the next GM of the Leafs? If it is not done by Christmas I'll be shocked.

This whole scenario has been ridiculous from the start. Everyone new he wanted to be in Toronto so why didn't it happen last summer?

Monday, November 10, 2008

NBA Preview

It wasn't a terribly interesting off-season in the NBA at least compared to last year when the Celtics reinvented their roster with the Kevin Garnett deal. What you'll see this year is a lot of big name guys making a lot of money get traded to new teams in attempts to clear cap space for the loaded 2010 free agent class (LeBron, DWade, Dirk, Yao, Bosh etc.) Iverson was the first but he won't be the last.

Eastern Conference

1. Boston Celtics*

I don't think there is going to be any kind of letdown over championship hangover for this team. Kevin Garnett is so intense I can't see how that happens but there is no way they will win the 66 games they did last year. Garnett is not the offensive force he was and this year will be the defensive and emotional leader and let the offense go through Paul Pierce, who should have another great year.

I see Rajon Rondo improving a lot but Ray Allen continuing to show his age as he did in the playoffs last year. I also think their bench is weakened a lot by the defection of James Posey to the Hornets.

The Celts will still win the conference in the regular season but won't repeat as champs.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers*

This is the year LeBron takes over the east. He made the Finals two years ago and nearly knocked off the Celtics last year but couldn't because Boston was able to knock him around a lot because the Cavs had nobody else who could score. Enter Mp Williams. He can not only distribute the ball but knock down open shots, which spreads the floor for LeBron.

I also think they are going to end up with another scorer at the trade deadline, someone like Michael Redd, in exchange for Wally Szczerbiak's expiring contract. They have a decent defense and can rebound so those aren't big concerns.

Come playoff time though LeBron is going to tear through the east. It's still Kobe's league but LeBron is going to win his first MVP and show that starting next year it is entirely his league.

3. Detroit Pistons

I like the Allen Iverson trade even though it may not make much sense on paper. The problem was that the Pistons were becoming the Atlanta Braves of basketball, great year after year but not quite great enough. They had to shake things up and they have the added bonus of Iverson and Rasheed Wallace being unrestricted free agents at the end of the year. They can make a great run this year and then clear cap space to go after LeBron (a pipe dream) or Carmelo (very realistic).

It will be interesting to see how AI fits with Rip Hamilton but Rip isn't a selfish player so I think they'll do fine together. The Pistons may not be better with AI but they are a hell of a lot more interesting.

4. Toronto Raptors

The whole point of the Jermaine O'Neal for TJ Ford trade was to clear the way for Jose Calderon to be the 35 minute a game point guard. You had to trade for an injury prone O'Neal for an injury prone Ford to do that. The Raps are not expecting O'Neal to go for 20-10 over the season. They need him to play strong defense and open up things for Bosh in the middle. And that is exactly what will happen.

The Raps are going to be a hell of a lot better than people think because O'Neal will play great D and rebound. Having him around will also take some pressure of Andrea Bargnani who should have a big year. I also expect Anthony Parker to keep being a solid glue guy, Jamario Moon to develop into a more complete player and Jason Kapono to keep knocking down threes. I don't see any reason they can't get homecourt in the first round.

5. Orlando Magic*

I think Orlando overachieved last year and was able to take advantage of a brutal division. But with the Bobcats, Hawks and especially Heat improved they won't be able to score as many easy division wins.

Dwight Howard will continue to dominate other big men in the east and Rashard Lewis will continue to score but I don't see their backcourt of Jameer Nelson and Mickael Pietrus being a big help for them. I'm not sure either one is a great scorer or that good on the defensive end. They should still win the division but I don't see how they win 50 games.

6. Miami Heat

Dwayne Wade is healthy and motivated and that should scare the hell out of everyone else in this conference. When he is healthy he is still the third best player int he league and I think he will show that this year. That alone is enough to push the Heat into the playoffs.

This team tanked it last year to get a top pick and it worked. Michael Beasley is going to score and he is going to rebound. He is also going to be terrible defensively and get into foul trouble against smart veterans but they can live with that because Shawn Marion is probably the best defensive player in the NBA not named Garnett and will cover a lot of peoples mistakes. Marion should also be motivated to show his numbers were not just a product of Steve Nash and for a new contract.

I also like Mario Chalmers a lot. He is a winner who is not afraid to take big shots and will learn quickly playing along DWade. And Shaun Livingston was a steal if he can stay healthy. This team has no bench but with Wade, Beasley and Marion don't need one to make the playoffs.

7. Philadelphia 76ers

I love Elton Brand but he is no savior. I like Andre Miller but he is hardly a top tier point guard. I like Samuel Dalembert but he can't score. I like Andre Iuodala but he can't hit a jump shot. I guess what I am saying is that anyone who thinks this team is going to jump to 50 wins is going to be extremely disappointed this season.

I thought the Brand pickup was great but I don't see him as a guy who is better than Bosh, Howard or Garnett so I don't see how they get out of the first round. Especially with no bench at all.

8. Washington Wizards

Gilbert Arenas may be one of my favorite players but even I admit he is overrated as a player. He takes too many bad shots and works out of the flow of the offense. Having him out to start the season will be good for the Wiz because Caron Butler can establish himself as the go to guy and Antawn Jamison as another great scorer. They are not too strong up front but nobody else in the east is either so int doesn't matter that much.

Defense will still be an issue because it just doesn't seem like any of these guys are at all interested in it and that will kill them when it counts.

9. Indiana Pacers

When your playoff hope are tied to TJ Ford staying healthy and Mike Dunleavy continuing to improve you might be in for some trouble. I do like what they are doing here though. By trading O'Neal they finally get rid of all the baggage from the infamous brawl in Detroit.

They do have some talent here though. Ford will be great, if healthy, in an uptempo offense and Troy Murphy is a pretty good big man. I think Danny Granger will regress a bit this year but I love the trade that brought them Brandon Rush. He is going to be a bigtime scorer in the NBA because of his ability to move to the hoop in traffic and his ability to get his shot off quick. He moves along faster than expected they can make the playoffs.

10. Chicago Bulls

The Bulls should be a few wins better than last year but I still don't like the way this team is put together. With Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Ben Gordon and Kirk Hinrich around they have too many guards and small forward taking shots. If they have bad shooting nights they are sunk because Drew Gooden scores a lot of garbage points and doesn't really get to the line and Joakim Noah will never score you more than 8 a game. They keep waiting for Tyrus Thomas to develop but that is never going to happen.

What should help these guys is playing a pressure defense that leads to turnovers and easy baskets. They can get away with that against the bad teams, but it won't work against good teams.

11. Atlanta Hawks

I don't see their late push to the playoffs and taking the Celtics to a Game 7 as a sign of great things to come this year. I still don't think Mike Bibby wants to be here and is likely to pout all season. Joe Johnson will keep getting points but he is not a number one guy on a consistent playoff team. Marvin Williams should keep getting better and I love Al Horford who should be good for a double double every night this year.

The big problem for these guys is the loss of Josh Childress to Greece. Childress was not a great player but he gave them something off the bench. Now there bench consists of Acie Law, Maurice Evans and Zaza Pachulia. That ain't good. That ain't good at all.

12. Milwaukee Bucks

I actually like the trade that brought in Richard Jefferson from the Nets. He, along with Andrew Bogut and Charlie Villanueva are a serviceable front line, if at least offensively. Michael Redd is still a big scorer but I expect him to be moved by mid-January, probably to the Cavs.

The biggest problem for this team is that they are just brutal defensively and Scott Skiles is going to drive everyone nuts harping on it. They will be a bit better than last year but not much.

13. Charlotte Bobcats

It's hard to predict what Charlotte will do this year because Larry Brown has a long history of making bad teams pretty good ones. And make no mistake this is a bad team. Raymond Felton is a career back up who is starting at PG. Sean May is a career backup starting at power forward and Emeka Okafor is an undersized center.

What they do have going for them is two great scorers in Jason Richardson and Gerald Wallace, potential in DJ Augustin (who could take Felton's job by Christmas) a banger of the bench in Jared Dudley and a wild card like Adam Morrison. If these guys play some defense and Morrison shows he can play at all they might be the surprise team of the east.

14. New York Knicks

The Knicks are going to be God awful this again this year but at least they will be entertaining on the court with Mike D'Antoni running the show. I absolutely love the fact that D'Antoni has told Stephon Marbury to sit down, shut up and you're never going to play. He should do the same thing with Eddie Curry too.

Let's face it though, the last thing the Knicks should be doing is winning games. That won't be a problem though because they can't score and can't defend. They need to be terrible, which they will be, and trade Marbury, Curry and Zach Randolph and clear as much cap space as possible. If the Nets can't get an arena built in Brooklyn the Knicks are the front-runners for LeBron.

15. New Jersey Nets

The Nets have a chance to be historically embarrassing this year. No so much that they will be the worst team in history but by trading everyone who maes over the league minimum in order to clear enough space to go after LeBron in two years. That means Vince Carter will be gone by February. That leaves a staring five of Devin Harris, who may be an all-star one day, Bobby Simmons, Yi Jianlian, Brook Lopez, and whoever they get for Carter.

This team won't score, won't defend, likely won't be pushed to work hard and will sleep walk through games on the road. It will be just awful to watch if you're a Nets fan. The only thing keeping you going will be praying that Jay-Z is tight enough with LeBron to ensure he is a Net on opening day 2010.

Western Conference

1. Los Angeles Lakers*

I was actually one of the few people who watched the Gold Medal basketball game live. All summer the talk was of whose team it would be, LeBron's or Kobe's. When the game was close with 5 minutes left, Coach K called a timeout and everyone in the huddle just stared at Kobe. Kobe then had the ball in his hands every possession in the last 5 minutes. And that ended any debate on who the ultimate alpha dog in the NBA was.

I think getting smoked in the Finals last year is absolutely killing Kobe and he will do anything to ensure he wins this year. Luckily for him Andrew Bynum is back to help out. Bynum was turning into an almost unguardable force in the middle last year before he got hurt. Best of all is he seemed to have a killer instinct that neither Lamar Odom or Pau Gasol have. With Bynum back Gasol can move to power forward where he belongs and Odom can come off the bench where he should be more effective with a defined role. Odom may bitch for the first 6 weeks of the season but Phil Jackson will have him straightened out by Christmas. Throw in improving role payers like Jordan Farmar and Sahsa Vujacic and the veteran presence of Derek Fisher and this is a 60 win team. And a Championship team.


2. New Orleans Hornets*

There is no way the Hornets will slip much as a lot of people predict. One reason is that the Spurs, Mavericks and Suns are all on the downside but the main reason is the NBA is quickly becoming a point guards league and Chris Paul is the best in the league. Nobody can match his quickness, ability to get in the lane and knock down outside shots. He's also underrated defensively, he's so fast he often disrupts passing lanes.

I expect David West to continue scoring at 20 per game and I expect Tyson Chandler to improve his offensive numbers as he learns to get more tip ins on offensive rebounds. Peja Stojakovic is still dangerous enough that you have to guard him and James Posey is as clutch a three point shooter as there is. Defensively they still need to improve but should keep funneling things into Chandler.

3. Utah Jazz*

Losing Deron Williams for the first month of the year certainly doesn't help them but this team is loaded enough to survive. Carlos Boozer is a brute force on the blocks and he is in a contract year so I expect about 23 and 12 from him this year. Ronnie Brewer is vastly underrated and could blossom into an 18 ppg guy if he gets enough touches. Mehmet Okur can stretch defenses because he is one of the few bigs in the league who can actually hit an outside shot and I think Andrei Kirilenko will finally settle into a role coming off the bench.

Defensively they are a bit weak at center and up front but there are not that many teams in the West that are dominant up front anymore so that won't kill them in the playoffs. And they are extrmeley well prepared every night thanks to coach Jerry Sloan. They may need to make a trade for a big guy in the middle this year because I think they know Boozer is leaving at the end of the year and this may be their best chance for a while.

4. San Antonio Spurs

As long as two of Manu Ginobili, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker (and I know he is out for 6 weeks but I have to base this preview on opening night assumptions) are on the floor this team is still extremely dangerous. Once the three of them are healthy and on the floor watch out. Kind of.

As great as the big three are their supporting cast has aged very quickly. Bruce Bowen has lost a step and some strength so he is not as effectively defensively (and is a liability on offense). Michael Finley doesn't get to the basket nearly as well as he used to and isn't a great defender and Kurt Thomas may be the only guy in the West who moves as slow as Shaq foes now. Fabricio Oberto may improve but expecting 10-8 from him is asking a lot.

The Spurs will have a hard time pulling off a big trade too because their isn't much to trade of value other than their top three and their picks are always in the 20's. I wouldn't be at all shocked if they have one more championship run in them with Duncan but I think they will lose in the conference semifinals.


5. Houston Rockets

Everyone picking the Rockets to win 55-58 games are banking on two things. The first is Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming staying healthy, which is no sure thing, especially Yao. The second is Ron Artest behaving himself and staying motivated. I actuallyl think Artest will be fine this year. He loves coach Rick Adelman and usually behaves the first year is somewhere.

The problem for the Rockets is that I still don't see Rafer Alston as a starter for the championship team and they have a pretty thin bench other than great glue guy Shane Battier and an aging Brent Barry. They wil play a lot of half court because they can't run but if someone like the Lakers or Hornets can push the tempo they are in big trouble.

6. Phoenix Suns

The Suns had to make the Shaq trade last year. They were never going to win with Shawn Marion and everyone on that roster new it. Marion just isn't a winner. That's why Shaq was a worthy gamble even if it didn't work out last year. Unfortunately they have no shot this year either. Steve Nash is mounting his last stand as is Grant Hill. If the Suns are going to finish any higher than sixth they are going to need huge contributions from Amare Stoudemire (very likely) and Raja Bell and Leandro Barbosa (very unlikely).

The move to a more half court team should help them defensively because Shaq can still block shots and Amare is so athletic he can provide a lot of weak side help. BUt it really hurts Nash because he is a less than average defender. As much as I would love to see this team make a long run I just don't see them getting out of the first round.

7. Portland Trail Blazers

Introducing your 2011-2015 NBA Champions. This lineup is so stacked with young talent every team in the West is petrified of what this team will become - with or without Greg Oden. With Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Fernandez and Jerryd Bayless all they need from Oden is to shot block and score garbage points on put backs and easy dunks.

The thing that is so fun to watch with this team (God Bless the Raptors HD channel) is how confident they are. They never look rushed in tight games and Brandon Roy loves having the ball in his hands down the stretch. I think they are still too young to go deep this year but come next year it's time for the West to duck and cover.

8. Dallas Mavericks

Of the Mavs, Suns and Spurs I think the Mavs are the team most likely to go in the tank this year. They are so weak mentally that if they get off to a 10-15 start after 25 games they may just throw in the towel and go 37-45. If Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard and Jason Terry are motivated they can still compete and beat anyobdy but that is a big if.

The biggest problem they are going to have is Jason Kidd. There is no way in hell he can compete with Paul, Williams, Nash, Parker, Roy (who is a point at the end of the game), Baron Davis, or even Monta Ellis night in and night out at his age. I thought the trade for him was a disaster last year and it will really show up worse this year. Throw in a diminishing Jerry Stackhouse, a slowing Eric Dampier and the inevitable panic moves by Mark Cuban and this could be a real disaster.

9. Denver Nuggets

I didn't know what the Nuggets were trying to do when they inexplicably dumped Marcus Camby to the Clippers. Now I really don't know what they are doing with the AI trade. Chauncey Billups allows Carmelo Anthony to be the obvious number one scorer but they don't have much else on offense. They are going to have to score a tonne of points because their defense is so bad so expect a lot of high scoring games because theie best shot is to outscore the other team.

The strange thing is though if they can hang around long enugh and the Mavs collapse they could still make the playoffs. If Kenyon Martin shows some of the skills he had before injury his numbers should go up with Camby gone. Billups is as steady as they come and makes better decisions with the ball than Iverson and I really like JR Smith off the bench. Carmelo may just win the scoring title this year. If he does that they can sneak in.

10. Los Angeles Clippers

Coach Mike Dunleavy is a control freak with a playbook about 300 pages long. They have brought in new point guard Baron Davis who likes to call his own plays and wants freedom. Let the hilarity begin. One of the more interesting subplots of the year is just how these two will do together. After Elton Brand's agent screwed the Clips over they has sense enough to bring in Marcus Camby to help fill the defensive void. He and Chris Kaman are a pretty formidable front court that will keep them in a lot of games.

I think the key for this team is how fast Al Thornto on rookie Eric Gordon develop. If they can each score 11-14 ppg they have an outside shot at the playoffs. They really don't get much more than average from Tim Thomas and Ricky Davis (the though of this guy in LA is also hilarious. He may set a record for missed practices for no reason) off the bench so it their starting five, which is decent, to carry them. It's a tall task.

11. Golden State Warriors

I've always like that Don Nelson has been an unconventional coach and has understood that basketball is meant to be a free flowing, fast paced game. His teams have always been entertaining as hell but never really go anywhere. So it makes a fitting tribute that in his last season the Warriors will be great to watch but miss the palyoffs. With Corey Magette, Monta Ellis, and Stephen Jackson flying up and down the court the Warrior are going to play a lot of 120-116 games. But because none of those guys has any real interest in defense they will lose those games. Hell, Kobe may even go for 80 against them this season.

I like the Ronny Turiaf pickup because he fits perfectly with Nellie. Al Harrington is decent but overmatched at PF in the west and Andris Biedrins is pretty average. Like I said, these guys will lose a lot but enjoy it while you can, I'm not sure there will ever be another Nellieball coach again.

12. Minnesota Timberwolves

Now that Isiah is out of the league I figured it was Kevin McHale's turn to assume the Worst GM in the NBA title. Then he went and made some decent moves in the offseason. First off I love Kevin Love. He is never out of position, works his ass off, is an outstanding passer and can hit a 15 foot jumper. Minny fans are going to love him. I also like Mike Miller who can shoot the lights out. Those two combined with Al Jefferson, who is turning into a perennial all-star is a nice nucleus. Randy Foye will become a decent PG eventually, likely not this year, and Corey Brewer should develop into a very good role player off the bench this year.

This team will still stink because they are too oung right now, but with one or two more good players thrown into the mix they should content for the playoffs in a couple of years. If McHale doesn't screw it up that is.

13. Sacramento Kings

It's gotta suck to be a Kings fan. You came within a whisker of the NBA Finals a few years back, losing a Game 7 to the Lakers that was evidence number 1 that NBA refs were throwing games, and you haven't bene close since. You've seen Chris Webber destroyed by injuries, Mike Bibby sulk abd leave town and put up with Ron Artest for a couple of years. Now your team is as bad as it was before the Maloofs took over and they are openly talking about moving the team if attendance doesn't improve.

Well this team stinks so it won't improve. Kevin Martin will continue to be the only bright spot and he should scroe 25 a night. Brad Millers best days are behind him and Spencer Hawes isn't strong enough to play 38 minutes a night in the middle. Starting point Beno Udrih is the second guard off the bench on a playoff team and Mikki Moore would never take his sweats off with the Lakers. And on top of that your top pick, Jason Thompson, came from Rider and nobody knew who he was. It's going ot be a long year.

14. Oklahoma City Thunder

Count me among those who absolutely hates the fact this team Seattle and how it happened. I'm not going to get into that though. This team should be in a lot of games this year because the OK City home crowd will be going nuts every night no matter how bad they are. But they do have talent here. Kevin Durant was everything he was supposed to be last year and is only going to get better once he realizes that at 6'10 he should be posting up the 6'6 guys guarding him and learns to get to the foul line more. Jeff Green is also a potential all star who is athletic and has a nice mean streak to him. And rookie Russell Westbrook reminds me a lot of Steve Nash. He's intense, fearless and will drive the lane know matter who is in front of him. Chris Wilcox and Nick Collison will be good up front. If Durant, Green and Westbrook get a lot better this season they could win 35 games. I wouldn't bet on it though.

15. Memphis Grizzlies

As much as I like Rudy Gay, if he is your best player you are in for a difficult season. As for OJ Mayo all you need to know about him is that he went 5-20 on opening night. When was the last time a rookie took 20 shots on opening night? I think Mayo is going to be a Stephon Marbury-like pain in the ass his entire career. He is selfish, spoiled and only cares about his own stats.

Mike Conley will eventually be a decent point but he will get eaten alive by the other points in this conference. Hakim Warrick busts his ass but is overmatched at power forward Marc Gasol is no answer at center. The funniest thing about the Griz is how Antoine Walker is going to react to being there. He was a good team guy in Minny last year but eventually the losing will take it's toll on him. And there will be a lot of losses. Like about 65 of them.

* Division winners

Eastern Conference Semis

Celtics over Raptors
Cavs over Pistons

Eastern Conference Final

Cavs over Celtics

Western Conference Semis

Lakers over Spurs
Hornets over Jazz

Western Conference Final

Lakers over Hornets

NBA Finals

Lakers over Cavs

MVP - LeBron
Rookie of the Year - Michael Beasley
Defensive Player of the Year - Kevin Garnett

Thursday, November 06, 2008

Introducing Diamond Joe The VI



It is my pleasure to give a warm Pursuit of Leisure welcome to the world to Diamond Joseph Blake VI, aka JB, the 2031 PGA Rookie of the Year.

Mom, Dad and big sister Hailey couldn't be more excited. We're unclear how four legged friend Basil is taking the news.

The Weight of Expectations.

As I have said before I actually like a lot of things about Barack Obama. I think he is extremely intelligent and will be able to quickly grasp important ideas in areas where he has very little experience, and he is a fantastic speaker.

But one of the other things I really like about him, that he has drawn people into the political process that until now have either not given much though to voting or undervalued their own participation, may turn into a significant problem for him.

Living conditions and societal problems in places like urban LA, Detroit, and DC are not going to magically start improving on January 20, 2009. These places are not going to improve magically in 4 years for that matter. The building process for areas such as these are decades. I just hope that people don't turn on Obama when they realize that there are a hell of a lot of things that need to be done to improve things and the President is actually only a small part of it.

Stretching Credibility To It's Absolute Limit. If That.

OK, so here is a pathetically late so called hockey preview. This is how I figured it would go before the season started. Actual season to date results have no bearing on this post.

Eastern Conference.

1. Montreal
2. Pittsburgh
3. Philadelphia
4. New York Rangers
5. New Jersey - Every year I think the Devs are going to slide back and every year I am wrong. So I'll just stop picking them to slide back. Even with the Brodeur injury I think they are a playoff team.
6. Washington
7-10 Boston, Ottawa, Buffalo and Tampa. Two of these teams will make the playoffs and two won't and I have no idea which are which. I think the Bruins and Sens will slide in and be bounced easily in the first round.
11. Florida
12. Carolina
13. Toronto - It would be totally typical of the Leafs to screw up a rebuilding year and potential number 1 or 2 pick by being good this year. And it's 3-1 odds that if they are within striking distance of the playoffs in mid-January Mats is coming back.
14. New York Islanders
15. Altanta

Western Conference

1. Detroit
2. San Jose
3. Minnesota
4. Anaheim
5. Dallas
6. Chicago
7. Edmonton
8. Nashville
9. Edmonton
10. Colorado
11. St. Louis
12. Phoenix
13. Vancouver
14. Columbus
15. Los Angeles

Stanley Cup - Detroit over Pittsburgh

Monday, November 03, 2008

Who Gets Slobbered Over More?

Watching the Jets-Bills game yesterday and listening to Phil Simms and Jim Nantz slobbering over Brett Favre I though to myself - Who does the media love more, Obama or Favre? I think it's too close to call.